Goldman Sachs expects diesel and other refined-fuel markets to remain tight through 2027, according to figures reported on Oct. 6, 2026. The forecast points to recovering demand and inventory restocking running up against limited refinery capacity. It is a market outlook—not a guarantee that retail diesel prices will rise or stay high in every country.
What Goldman’s reported forecast says
News Impact Screener reported on Oct. 6, 2026 that Goldman Sachs expects refining capacity outside China to contract by roughly 300,000 barrels per day in 2026. The outlet also attributed to Goldman a forecast that global diesel and jet-fuel crack spreads could average above $40 per barrel in 2027. These are projections, not measured outcomes. The October Goldman research note was not publicly available in the reporting reviewed, so the figures are best understood as secondary reporting of Goldman’s forecast. News Impact Screener’s report
Why diesel can stay tight when crude oil moves differently
Crude oil is the raw material; diesel is a refined product. Having crude available does not guarantee that refineries can process enough of it, or that finished fuel can reach the regions where it is needed. Refinery capacity, operating rates, product flows and inventories all affect diesel availability and price.
Goldman’s public commentary in August provides context for that distinction, though it does not verify the October forecast figures. In an official podcast discussion, Nitin Jindal, head of Global Commodities in Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities, said there were “few signs of relief” in refined-product markets, including diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. The transcript describes a tight refining complex and reduced product supply from the Persian Gulf and Russia, as well as China’s decision to preserve products. Jindal also discussed inventory management, reserve drawdowns, consumption reductions and refinery optimization as ways buyers had been balancing the market. Goldman Sachs podcast and transcript
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What a $40 crack spread means—and what it does not
A crack spread measures the difference between the price of refined products and the price of crude oil used to make them. Goldman’s reported figure is a forecast for the average global crack spread for diesel and jet fuel in 2027. It is not a prediction that consumers will pay $40 more per barrel at the pump, nor does it translate directly into a particular retail price per gallon or litre. Retail prices also depend on local supply, taxes, distribution costs, currency movements and other market conditions.
Will diesel prices come down in 2027?
The reported outlook suggests refined-product markets could remain tight, but it does not establish what diesel will cost in a particular country or on a particular date. The outcome will depend on whether demand and restocking strengthen as forecast, how much refinery capacity is available and operating, and whether product supply and inventories improve. Forecasts can change as those conditions change. Goldman’s August remarks support the general tight-products backdrop; they are not confirmation of the October projections. Related coverage of the October forecast
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What this means for household fuel costs
For drivers and households, the forecast is a reason to be cautious about assuming that lower crude prices will automatically bring lower diesel prices. It is not a precise budget estimate: the cited sources do not provide a country-specific retail-price forecast. For a household or business tracking fuel expenses, local pump prices remain the relevant measure.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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