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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteIt could take up to two years, Amin H. Nasser, president and CEO of Saudi Aramco, said on October 5, 2026—but only under the conditions he described: the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, confidence returns, and inventories are replenished while demand is still being met. His estimate is a conditional warning, not a guaranteed timetable or an established market consensus.
What did Aramco’s CEO say about rebuilding oil inventories?
Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on October 5, 2026, Nasser said pressure would intensify until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened and confidence returned. He then said: “Even then, replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years.” Aramco’s published speech is the primary source for his remarks.
The wording matters. “Could take up to” describes a possible duration, not a promise that inventories will be restored in two years. The estimate is conditional on reopening and renewed confidence, and it includes the challenge of replenishing stocks while continuing to supply demand.
What inventory and supply figures did Nasser cite?
Nasser described the scale of the shortfall using figures attributed to him and Aramco, rather than an independently audited global stock assessment:
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- He said the world entered the crisis with almost 10 billion barrels of global oil stocks.
- He said nearly 3 billion barrels of gross oil supply had been lost, while more than 1 billion barrels had been drawn from stocks to mitigate that loss.
- He said less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remained, and that most of this volume was not practically available.
Nasser also said most of the stock draw had come from onshore commercial inventories. The remaining commercial-inventory total should not be read as the amount immediately usable in an emergency: his speech distinguishes the total from what is practically available. The figures and characterizations above are from Aramco’s October 5, 2026 speech.
Why could replenishment take so long even after Hormuz reopens?
Reopening a route and restoring confidence would not, by themselves, refill inventories. Oil would have to meet current demand as well as rebuild stocks. Nasser’s remarks therefore describe a recovery that continues after the immediate disruption ends: the market would need sustained supply beyond what is being consumed before depleted inventories could recover.
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He also warned against treating emergency reserves as a durable solution: “Emergency reserves might buy us a winter. They cannot fix long-term supply.” That is his argument for distinguishing short-term stock releases from a longer process of restoring supply and inventories.
How does this compare with Aramco’s earlier 2026 guidance?
Aramco’s Q1 2026 earnings-call script offered an earlier, differently framed assessment. The company said an immediate reopening could still leave the market needing months to rebalance, while a delayed reopening could push normalization into 2027. At that time, its comments described the disruption as supply-led and cited about one billion barrels of cumulative supply losses.
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In October, Nasser cited nearly 3 billion barrels of gross supply lost and focused on replenishing inventories while continuing to meet demand. These are company statements made at different dates; their time windows or categories are not established as directly interchangeable. The earlier comments provide context, but they do not independently verify the later two-year estimate. See Aramco’s Q1 2026 earnings-call script.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Is two years a consensus forecast?
No consensus forecast is established by the cited statements. Nasser’s speech is evidence of what Aramco’s CEO said, but it does not independently establish the current global inventory total, the exact volume available for immediate use, or the assumptions about demand growth and post-reopening supply flows behind the estimate. The two-year figure is best understood as a conditional estimate from Nasser, not a verified prediction for when global stocks will return to a particular level.
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Reuters, in a report syndicated by Yahoo Finance on October 5, 2026, also described the estimate in the context of a full Hormuz reopening and returning confidence: Reuters report via Yahoo Finance.
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