High fertiliser prices and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz threaten food security through two linked pressures: farmers and governments may struggle to afford fertiliser, while shipping constraints can make supplies harder to move. At a meeting in New Delhi on October 5, 2026, India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said India is cushioning farmers from international prices and has created a shipping emergency fund to support fertiliser shipments. The scale and duration of the disruption remain uncertain.
What Sitharaman said about prices and food security
Speaking at the Munich Leaders Meeting in New Delhi, Sitharaman said fertiliser had become too expensive for countries to sustain buying at prevailing levels. “Fertilisers have gone through enough, it is just not possible for any country to sustain buying it at that level,” she said, according to Moneycontrol’s October 5, 2026 report.
She linked the price shock to global food security: fertiliser is an essential farm input, and unaffordable or unavailable supplies can put pressure on food production. Her remarks described both an affordability problem and a transport problem. Shipping lines and containers were unavailable, she said, while insurance risk premiums were extremely high amid Hormuz disruption.
How India says it is cushioning farmers
Moneycontrol reported Sitharaman’s statement that India imports around 80% of its fertiliser requirements. That figure is attributed to the minister’s remarks in the report, rather than presented there as an independently verified market estimate.
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To illustrate how India shields farmers from international prices, Sitharaman compared a farmer charge of ₹300 per unit with an import cost of ₹3,000 per unit for urea or DAP, saying nearly ₹2,700 is covered. “There is no way I can go charging them at the international rate,” she said. She added: “We charge farmers 300 rupees a unit and that very unit is 3000 rupees when we import, so nearly 2700 rupees is given for each one of these units of urea or DAP.”
This is her example, not a complete description of India’s fertiliser subsidy formula or a universal administered price for every product or situation. The report does not supply current subsidy spending or a detailed breakdown of how the example applies across the market.
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Why Hormuz matters to fertiliser and food supplies
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping passage for fertiliser, energy and other commodities. An analysis by IFPRI researchers, published by CGIAR on April 1, 2026, says up to 30% of global fertiliser trade passed through the strait in 2024. The same analysis estimates that 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 27% of globally traded oil also passed through it that year. These are 2024 trade-exposure figures—not estimates of how much cargo is currently blocked.
The energy link matters because natural gas is a key feedstock for nitrogen fertiliser production. The IFPRI analysis focuses on nitrogen and phosphate, for which the Persian Gulf region is a major production hub; potash is the third primary plant nutrient. Disruption can therefore affect the market through more than one channel: it can constrain shipping, raise transport and insurance costs, and put pressure on energy and fertiliser prices.
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The potential food-security effect is conditional, not a confirmed crop-loss forecast. IFPRI’s analysis warns that if supply disruption persists and higher prices reduce fertiliser use, yields could fall. Countries more dependent on Persian Gulf fertiliser and natural gas—especially in Africa and South Asia—are particularly exposed.
India’s shipping support and longer-term supply plans
Sitharaman said India had created a separate shipping emergency fund to support shipping lines bringing fertilisers as they face high insurance premiums. “We have created a separate shipping emergency fund to support any shipping lines that brings fertilisers especially as they face issues due to high insurance premiums,” she said, as quoted by Moneycontrol.
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The report does not state the fund’s size, eligibility rules, application process, beneficiaries, insurance costs or shipment volumes. Its announcement therefore indicates a government support measure, but does not establish how much assistance has reached carriers or how much supply it has secured.
Sitharaman also said India is working to expand domestic urea and phosphate capacity, while warning that the expansion would take a long time. In practical terms, the measures she described address different time horizons: shipping support and farmer protection are immediate responses, while additional domestic production is a longer-term effort to reduce import exposure.
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Is the Malacca Strait an alternative to Hormuz?
Not as a proven, interchangeable route for all fertiliser cargoes. Sitharaman expressed hope that the Malacca Strait would not also be disrupted. Moneycontrol describes it as roughly 900 km long, connecting the Indian Ocean with the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean, and reports that some energy trade was being rerouted through it.
A route used for some rerouted energy shipments is not evidence that Malacca can replace Hormuz for every fertiliser shipment. The report does not identify specific fertiliser cargoes diverted there or establish the capacity, cost or feasibility of such a substitution.
What is established—and what remains uncertain
The minister’s comments and the broader IFPRI analysis point to a clear risk chain: high prices weaken affordability, while shipping constraints can limit physical access; if those pressures endure and farmers use less fertiliser, food production may suffer. But the sources do not establish India’s Hormuz-specific import share, a current fertiliser price series, numerical insurance premiums, the emergency fund’s operational status or an end date for the disruption. The geopolitical and market picture can change quickly.
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