Yes—revised estimates showed U.S. consumer spending rebounded strongly in the second quarter of 2026 and helped support economic growth. But inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s goal, and consumer confidence fell in September. The figures describe a resilient spending quarter, not proof that every household is comfortable or that the acceleration will continue.
What the latest growth figures show
In a September 30, 2026 report on revised estimates, the Associated Press said real U.S. GDP grew at a 2.2% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2026. Consumer spending grew at a 3.8% annualized rate, compared with 0.7% in the first quarter. These are quarter-to-quarter growth rates expressed at an annual pace, not year-over-year changes. Associated Press, September 30, 2026
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The comparison points to a sharp pickup in spending during Q2, alongside overall economic growth. It is important to use the revised estimate: the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s July 30 advance estimate had put Q2 GDP growth at 1.5% annualized, but that figure was superseded. BEA, July 30, 2026
What “consumer spending” measures
Consumer spending, or personal consumption expenditures (PCE), is the value of goods and services purchased by or on behalf of U.S. residents. It is broader than retail sales alone and includes services as well as goods. BEA publishes PCE estimates monthly, quarterly and annually. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Consumption Expenditures
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Spending growth and inflation are related but distinct measures. Spending can rise because households buy more, because prices rise, or both. Real GDP growth adjusts for inflation; a spending growth rate should not be treated as a measure of how much more households bought unless its price adjustment is specified.
Inflation is still above the Fed’s goal
BEA reported that the PCE price index rose 3.4% over the 12 months through August 2026. The index measures prices paid by U.S. residents and is designed to reflect changes in consumer behavior. BEA describes it as capturing inflation or deflation across a wide range of consumer expenses while reflecting those changes in behavior. Bureau of Economic Analysis: PCE price index
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The Federal Reserve’s longer-run inflation goal is 2%, measured by the annual change in the PCE price index. August’s 3.4% reading was therefore still above that goal. Federal Reserve: Inflation
Why the earlier slowdown and Q2 rebound are not contradictory
The Federal Reserve’s July 10, 2026 Monetary Policy Report described consumer spending growth as slowing to about 2% in 2025 after two years of robust gains. It said spending then grew at an average annualized rate of 1.3% over the first five months of 2026. The September report of revised Q2 figures came later and showed a stronger quarter. These are snapshots covering different periods, not conflicting readings of the same interval. Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy Report, July 10, 2026 Associated Press, September 30, 2026
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Spending growth does not mean consumers feel confident
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points, from 88.6 in August to 81.9 in September, according to the Associated Press on September 29, 2026. Confidence surveys capture people’s views; spending estimates measure economic activity. The two can move differently, so a strong spending quarter does not establish that households feel secure about the economy. Associated Press, September 29, 2026
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What these national numbers cannot tell you
The figures show aggregate activity across the country. They do not identify which income groups drove spending, establish whether households are financially secure, or show whether Q2’s faster pace will persist. Those questions require evidence beyond the GDP, PCE and confidence readings cited here.
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