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Warren Buffett’s 1999 comments are relevant to NVIDIA’s AI boom as a reminder that rapid technological change can make long-term business forecasts difficult. NVIDIA has reported extraordinary recent revenue growth, but neither that growth nor Buffett’s remarks prove that the company is overvalued or that AI is in a bubble.
What Buffett said about technology stocks in 1999
At Berkshire Hathaway’s May 3, 1999 annual meeting, Buffett and Charlie Munger defended not buying popular technology stocks during the internet boom. Buffett described Berkshire’s preference for businesses it could understand and assess over a long horizon. He said: “And whenever we look at a business and we see lots of change coming, 9 times out of 10, we’re going to pass on that.” The meeting transcript records the remark; CNBC’s archive provides context for the event.
His point was about the difficulty of predicting which fast-changing businesses would endure—not that technology lacked social value, or that every technology company was a bad investment. The remarks concerned Buffett’s approach at that time; they were not a prediction about NVIDIA, artificial intelligence, or a future market crash.
What NVIDIA’s latest results show—and what they do not
For its fiscal second quarter of 2027, which ended July 26, 2026, NVIDIA reported $96.2 billion in total revenue, up 106% year over year. Data Center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 117% year over year. These are company-reported results for one quarter and show the scale and pace of recent growth; they do not by themselves establish whether that growth will continue.
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In its August 26, 2026 release, NVIDIA forecast fiscal third-quarter revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. That is management guidance, not revenue already earned. The company said the forecast did not assume Data Center compute revenue from China. NVIDIA’s investor-relations release also includes CEO Jensen Huang’s view that “AI has reached its inflection point” and that “demand is accelerating.” Those are management’s characterizations, not independently verified conclusions.
Where the dot-com comparison is useful
The useful comparison is a question of forecastability: can investors estimate how durable NVIDIA’s growth, customer demand, competitive position, and margins will be over many years while the technology and market are changing quickly? Buffett’s 1999 comments illuminate why an investor might hesitate when confident long-term predictions are hard to make. NVIDIA’s recent results, meanwhile, demonstrate substantial current business activity.
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That is not enough to conclude that today’s conditions match the late 1990s. A meaningful comparison would need evidence across revenue and earnings growth, cash generation and margins, customer concentration and demand durability, competitive position, capital spending and supply constraints, and share valuation relative to financial results. The figures here establish recent revenue growth, but do not provide a matched dot-com comparison or settle NVIDIA’s valuation.
What investors can take from Buffett’s warning
- Separate business performance from share value. Fast revenue growth describes the company’s reported results; it does not alone show whether its shares are attractively priced or what returns an investor may earn.
- Distinguish results from forecasts. NVIDIA’s second-quarter revenue is historical; its third-quarter figure is a forward-looking company estimate with an explicit China-related assumption.
- Ask what must remain true. A long-term view depends on assumptions about demand, competition, margins, and the durability of the business—not just the latest growth rate.
- Do not turn a historical approach into a current recommendation. Buffett’s 1999 remarks explain his stated forecasting concern at the time. They do not amount to a present-day buy or sell call on NVIDIA.
Buffett’s later comments on AI are a separate issue
At Berkshire’s May 2024 shareholder meeting, Buffett discussed AI’s potential for both good and harm, including the risk that a convincing fake video of him could facilitate fraud, according to the Associated Press. That was a warning about social risks, not a statement about NVIDIA’s valuation.
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Nor does Buffett’s technology caution mean Berkshire rejects using AI. At Berkshire’s May 2026 meeting, CEO Greg Abel discussed using AI to solve problems in Berkshire companies and emphasized patience and disciplined capital allocation, the Associated Press reported.
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