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NOAA faced reported staff losses in 2025 as the Trump administration pursued government-efficiency cuts, but the public record summarized here does not show that Elon Musk or named DOGE aides personally directed each NOAA action. Congress also rejected the administration’s proposed NOAA budget wholesale: enacted FY2026 funding exceeded its request for every line office and Mission Support. How staffing changes affected forecasts and warnings remains uncertain.
What is known about NOAA layoffs?
The Associated Press reported that NOAA probationary employees were fired in February 2025. A broader figure often associated with those reductions needs a clear attribution: former NOAA chief scientist Craig McLean estimated that two rounds affected about 1,300 people, or roughly 10% of NOAA’s workforce. McLean said his estimate was based on information from a first-hand source; it was not an official NOAA headcount.
Separate staffing figures reported by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) give a baseline, but do not provide a complete year-by-year account of those departures. CRS says NOAA had more than 12,200 full-time-equivalent employees in FY2024 and just over 11,000 in FY2026 in the Operations, Research, and Facilities (ORF) and Procurement, Acquisition, and Construction (PAC) accounts. FY2025 figures were unavailable. Those account-based figures should not be treated as a count of every NOAA worker under every funding account.
| Measure | Reported figure | What it does—and does not—show |
|---|---|---|
| Early-2025 job losses | About 1,300 people, or roughly 10% of NOAA’s workforce, across two reported rounds | Estimate attributed by AP to former NOAA chief scientist Craig McLean, not an official agency count. |
| FY2024 staffing | Over 12,200 FTEs | CRS-reported NOAA figures for the ORF and PAC accounts. |
| FY2025 staffing | Not available | CRS said figures for this year were unavailable. |
| FY2026 staffing | Just over 11,000 FTEs | CRS-reported NOAA figures for the ORF and PAC accounts, not necessarily every NOAA worker. |
The layoff estimate and the account-specific FTE figures are different measures. They cannot be combined to produce a definitive total of NOAA jobs lost or a precise count of people still employed.
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Did DOGE or Musk personally order the NOAA cuts?
The evidence described by GAO gives context about DOGE’s reach, not a NOAA-specific chain of command. GAO identified 206 DOGE personnel who held positions within the Executive Office of the President from January 20, 2025, through January 31, 2026. GAO said that scope did not capture everyone advancing DOGE initiatives inside federal agencies.
GAO also says Musk held a White House senior-adviser role as a special government employee, was described by the President as leading the overall DOGE effort, and left that role in May 2025. Those facts do not establish that Musk personally directed, approved, or selected NOAA personnel actions. The reviewed evidence does not identify which specific DOGE individuals directed or approved each NOAA staffing action.
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What did the administration propose for NOAA’s budget and staffing?
The administration’s FY2027 budget proposal would lower staffing in the ORF and PAC accounts by about 1,500 FTEs from FY2026 levels, according to CRS. That is a proposed reduction, not a completed cut or an enacted staffing level. A House report cited by CRS said National Weather Service (NWS) staffing “should be prioritized,” but did not address NOAA’s broader workforce.
The administration had also proposed eliminating the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). That proposal did not become the FY2026 funding outcome.
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What did Congress enact instead?
CRS reports that enacted FY2026 funding exceeded the administration’s request for every NOAA line office and for Mission Support. Compared with FY2025 estimates, the enacted amounts differed across offices rather than applying a single agency-wide cut:
| Office or comparison | FY2026 enacted funding compared with FY2025 estimates | Context |
|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service (NWS) | 8% more | CRS comparison of enacted FY2026 funding with FY2025 estimates. |
| Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) | Nearly 10% less | CRS comparison of enacted FY2026 funding with FY2025 estimates; Congress did not enact the administration’s proposal to eliminate OAR. |
| All line offices and Mission Support | Enacted funding exceeded the administration’s request | CRS’s summary of FY2026 appropriations; it does not mean every office received its FY2025 estimated amount. |
These are funding comparisons, not staffing counts. They show why the administration’s request, Congress’s enacted appropriations, and NOAA’s actual staffing should not be described as if they were the same decision or measure.
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Did the staffing changes affect weather forecasts or warnings?
There is evidence of operational concern, but not a quantified agency-wide effect on forecast accuracy or warning lead times in the sources summarized here. CRS states that “The effects of staff reductions on NOAA’s ability to fulfill its authorities remain unclear.” That is an assessment of what has been established; it is not proof that no services were affected.
In June 2025, NOAA announced mission-critical field hiring and said some staff would be reassigned, AP reported. The announcement did not state how many positions would be posted. It therefore does not establish how many people were hired, whether vacancies were fully restored, or how much capacity returned to forecasting, warnings, research, or other NOAA work.
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What can be said about responsibility and oversight?
NOAA’s organizational-change procedure says proposed changes are reviewed by human-capital officials, while the NOAA budget office assesses whether a proposal requires advance congressional notification of a reprogramming. NOAA’s leadership chart dated September 1, 2026, lists Dr. Neil Jacobs as Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator. These institutional details describe current structures; they do not establish whether a specific 2025 staffing action followed or violated the procedure.
A careful account separates three questions: what employment changes were reported, what the administration proposed, and what Congress enacted. Available evidence supports reporting layoffs and proposed reductions, while leaving the precise NOAA decision chain and the overall effects on services unsettled.
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