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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →The U.S. housing outlook is mixed, not uniformly stronger in 2026. Fannie Mae’s September 11, 2026 forecast projects fewer total home sales and slightly fewer housing starts in 2026 than in 2025, followed by a rebound in sales but slower home-price appreciation and fewer starts in 2027. Mortgage rates and affordability remain major constraints, and national forecasts cannot tell you what will happen in a particular city.
What the latest national forecast projects
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group published its latest annual figures on September 11, 2026. The estimates below are national forecasts, not observed results. Housing starts and sales are annual totals in millions of units; home-price growth is the annual change from Q4 to Q4; mortgage rates are annual averages.
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 forecast | 2027 forecast | What the change suggests |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total housing starts | 1.356 million | 1.351 million (-0.4%) | 1.327 million (-1.8%) | Starts edge down in both years. |
| Total home sales | 4.754 million | 4.692 million (-1.3%) | 4.882 million (+4.1%) | Sales dip in 2026, then recover in 2027. |
| Existing-home sales | 4.076 million | 4.062 million | 4.215 million | The existing-home measure is nearly flat in 2026, then rises in 2027. |
| New single-family home sales | 679,000 | 630,000 | 668,000 | New-home sales fall in 2026 and partly recover in 2027. |
| Fannie Mae HPI growth, Q4/Q4 | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | Price appreciation is forecast to slow in 2027, not turn negative. |
| Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | The annual average is forecast to rise modestly in 2027. |
Source for every forecast value and percentage in the table: Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group, September 11, 2026. Its mortgage-rate assumptions use rates as of August 31, 2026; the other forecasts use information available as of the September 11 release.
Does this mean home prices will fall in 2027?
Fannie Mae’s September forecast does not project a national price decline: its own home-price index is forecast to rise 1.0% from Q4 2026 to Q4 2027, after 2.3% growth in 2026. That is slower appreciation, not falling prices. It is an index forecast, so it should not be treated as the same measure as a forecast for the median sale price.
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Other forecasters have different estimates and use different measures. On June 16, 2026, the National Association of Realtors projected 4% growth in existing-home sales and a 4% rise in the median home price during 2026, with mortgage rates averaging 6.5%. Fannie Mae’s later September forecast instead shows its existing-home sales measure falling about 0.3% between 2025 and 2026 and its HPI rising 2.3%. These are not direct like-for-like estimates: the release dates differ, and NAR’s median sale price is not Fannie Mae’s home-price index. NAR’s June 16, 2026 outlook and Fannie Mae’s September forecast table should be read with those distinctions in mind.
Why “stronger in 2026” needs qualification
Recent data and forecasts describe different parts of the market, and they do not all point in the same direction. NAHB’s October 1, 2026 update reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.03% as of September 24, its highest level since January 2025. Builder sentiment, measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, stood at 32 after a three-point decline.
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In August, overall housing starts fell 2.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.28 million. Within that total, single-family starts rose 7.6% from July and were 5.2% above a year earlier, while multifamily starts fell 21.7% month over month and 14.6% year over year. Newly built single-family sales rose 6.4% in August to a 684,000 annual rate but remained 2% below the year-earlier pace. These are reported monthly conditions, not guarantees of what comes next. NAHB cited mortgage rates, affordability, tighter lending, and land, labor, and construction costs as pressures on builders and buyers. NAHB’s October 1, 2026 update
Why construction forecasts appear to conflict
Construction projections depend on when they were made and which category they cover. In February 2026, NAHB expected single-family starts to increase 1.0% that year to 940,000 and rise another 5% in 2027 to 984,000. It forecast multifamily starts to fall 5% in 2026 to 392,000 and another 6% in 2027 to 367,000. The February outlook also cited a nationwide housing shortage of about 1.2 million units and expected inflation-adjusted remodeling activity to grow 3% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. NAHB’s February 17, 2026 outlook
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Fannie Mae’s later September table forecasts a small decline in total housing starts in 2027. In October, NAHB said signs pointed to further single-family building declines in 2027. The February and October NAHB assessments are different forecast vintages, while Fannie Mae’s total-starts figure includes both single-family and multifamily construction. They should not be combined as though they were the same category or a single unchanged forecast.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the mortgage-rate outlook means for buyers
Fannie Mae forecasts the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.5% for 2026 and 6.7% for 2027. Those annual averages are estimates, not a promise that rates will reach a particular level at a particular time. The 7.03% figure in NAHB’s October update is a dated observation—the average as of September 24—not an annual forecast.
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NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said in the association’s February 17 outlook, “A sustained sub-6% mortgage rate will likely wait until 2027.” In its October update, NAHB presented Dietz’s warning that higher long-term rates add risk for 2027, citing dependence on AI-related growth and the possibility that lending is crowded out for other parts of the economy, including housing. These comments reflect the association’s assessment, not certainty about future mortgage rates. NAHB’s October update
For a household, the practical issue is the monthly cost of a home at the rate and price actually available to them. A national annual rate forecast cannot determine an individual borrower’s rate, loan terms, down payment, taxes, insurance, or affordability.
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How to use a national forecast for a local decision
National projections offer context, not a prediction for every market. Local supply, prices, construction mix, employment, and buyer demand can move differently from the national average. Before basing a purchase or sale decision on a headline, check:
- Which measure? Total sales, existing-home sales, new-home sales, starts, and home-price indexes describe different activity.
- Which price measure and period? A median sale price and an index are not interchangeable, nor are annual change and Q4-to-Q4 growth.
- Which construction segment? Single-family and multifamily starts can move in opposite directions.
- When was the forecast made? Forecasts can change as mortgage rates, affordability, and economic conditions change.
- What is happening locally? Compare recent inventory, sales, prices, and new construction in the specific area you are considering.
Fannie Mae says its forecasts rely on assumptions, may change without notice, and represent its Economic and Strategic Research Group’s view as of the date stated. The figures are best read as a dated scenario rather than a guarantee. Fannie Mae’s forecast hub
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