What’s actually slowing this PC down?
Pick the symptom - the matching free tool is one click away.
On Holding has the stronger disclosed near-term business-growth outlook. Its latest results show rising sales, while Nike is still reporting declines and expects another year of falling revenue. That makes On the clearer growth story on current company guidance—not automatically the better stock to buy. A stock-return verdict also needs valuation, share-price and earnings-expectation analysis, which the available figures do not provide.
Figures and outlooks below were available as of October 4, 2026. Nike’s latest reported quarter is Q1 FY2027; On’s is Q2 2026, so the periods are not aligned.
What do the latest results and forecasts show?
| Measure | Nike | On Holding |
|---|---|---|
| Latest quarterly sales | $11.2 billion in Q1 FY2027, ended August 31, 2026; down 4% reported and 5% currency-neutral year over year. Source: Nike’s October 1, 2026 issuer release. | CHF 850.3 million in Q2 2026, ended June 30; up 13.5% reported and 21.6% constant currency year over year. Source: On’s August 11, 2026 issuer release. |
| Full-year sales outlook | FY2027 revenue expected to decline by a high-single-digit percentage. Source: Nike’s October 1, 2026 issuer release. | FY2026 sales expected to grow in the low-20% range constant currency, or CHF 3.47–3.56 billion at current spot rates. Source: On’s August 11, 2026 issuer release. |
| Latest gross margin | 42.8%, up 60 basis points year over year in Q1 FY2027. Source: Nike’s October 1, 2026 issuer release. | 65.4%, up 3.9 percentage points year over year in Q2 2026. Source: On’s August 11, 2026 issuer release. |
| Profitability outlook | Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.15–$1.35 for FY2027, excluding about $0.15 of Pace restructuring expense. Source: Nike’s October 1, 2026 issuer release. | FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.5%–20.0%; this is a non-IFRS measure. Source: On’s August 11, 2026 issuer release. |
The comparison is stark at the sales level: On’s recent growth and full-year forecast point upward, while Nike’s latest results and guidance point to contraction. The profit measures in the last row are not interchangeable: adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA margin describe different things and use different adjustments.
What is driving On’s growth—and what could limit it?
Direct sales lead, while wholesale growth is being managed
In Q2, On’s direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales grew 26.0% reported and 34.3% constant currency; wholesale sales grew 4.8% reported and 12.7% constant currency. Management said it was deliberately controlling wholesale sell-in to protect full-price positioning in a promotional market and leave room for upcoming launches. That rationale makes the channel mix more nuanced than a simple comparison of growth rates: the company presents slower wholesale expansion as a choice, but the durability of the strategy still depends on consumer demand supporting its DTC-led growth.
#1 Best Overall
Geographic and product expansion broaden the opportunity, but footwear remains central
All three regions reported Q2 constant-currency growth: EMEA rose 20.5%, the Americas 13.0% and APAC 54.7%. APAC represented 20.0% of quarterly sales, with reported strength in China, Japan and South Korea. Faster expansion in that region adds growth potential, while increasing the importance of sustaining demand there.
Apparel sales grew 56.2% constant currency and accessories 102.2%, but shoes still made up 91.9% of sales. The newer categories may diversify On over time; their faster rates begin from a much smaller base and do not yet make the company less footwear-dependent in scale.
Rank #2
- Ideal for Gifting
- Ideal for a bookworm
- Compact for travelling
Margins are strong, with investment costs alongside them
On attributed its Q2 gross-margin improvement to operational efficiencies, freight, a higher DTC share, premium positioning and favorable foreign-exchange effects. The company reported that margin improvement despite higher U.S. import duties and without tariff refunds. It raised its FY2026 gross-margin expectation to at least 65.0%, while maintaining its adjusted EBITDA-margin range.
Growth is not cost-free: marketing, retail and selling expenses are rising as On invests and expands. The key execution test is whether it can keep its premium appeal and full-price discipline as it enters more markets, channels and product categories. Its 2025 Form 20-F identifies risks including brand resilience, strategy, innovation, competition, economic and political conditions, operations, distribution and suppliers.
Recommended Free Tools
Why is Nike’s growth outlook weaker, and what could change it?
Sales weakness spans channels and key markets
Nike’s Q1 FY2027 channel picture was uneven: wholesale declined 1% currency-neutral, while Nike Direct fell 9%. Within Direct, Nike Brand digital declined 13% and company-owned stores declined 5%. North America grew 2% currency-neutral, but Greater China and EMEA declined; Nike identified weakness in those two regions as a primary factor in the overall revenue decrease.
CEO Elliott Hill said Nike had “more work to do” in Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Greater China, and described the company’s actions as deliberate steps to strengthen those businesses over the long term. Nike presents its “Sport Offense” strategy as a way to scale momentum in performance businesses; the near-term challenge is restoring growth in the areas it has identified as needing work.
Rank #4
Pace savings are a plan, not assured growth or profit
Nike’s Pace operating-model transformation is expected by management to generate approximately $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through FY2031, before expected charges and future reinvestment. Nike also estimates about $1.0 billion in pre-tax charges through FY2031, in addition to approximately $0.3 billion of FY2026 severance costs, and expects about $0.3 billion of charges in FY2027. These are estimates, not guaranteed savings: implementation, charges and reinvestment all affect how much benefit ultimately reaches results.
Read Nike’s margin changes in context
The latest quarter’s gross-margin increase was attributed primarily to lower warehousing and logistics costs. That is different from the much larger Q4 FY2026 increase: Nike reported full-year revenue of $46.4 billion, flat reported and down 2% currency-neutral, with net income down 3%; Q4 gross margin rose to 49.2%, including an approximately 900-basis-point effect from the expected recovery of IEEPA tariffs. The Q4 comparison should not be treated as evidence of a recurring operating-margin improvement.
Free tools Windows power users keep installed
One-click scans. No signup required.
Best Value
- It can be a gift option
- Comes with secure packaging
- Helpful in various ways
How should investors compare the growth cases?
- Separate reported growth from currency-adjusted growth. Foreign exchange affected both companies’ reported figures. Nike labels its adjusted rate currency-neutral; On uses constant currency. These measures clarify underlying sales trends but do not make the companies’ fiscal periods identical.
- Look beyond headline revenue. Consider channel mix, whether sales are full-price, and how broadly growth is distributed across regions and product categories. On’s management emphasizes protecting full-price sales; Nike’s current contraction is particularly evident in Direct, Greater China and EMEA.
- Keep profitability measures distinct. Gross-margin direction can help explain the quality of sales, but Nike’s adjusted EPS guidance is not comparable to On’s adjusted EBITDA-margin guidance. Both companies’ adjustments and reported margins need context.
- Match the risk to the growth thesis. Nike is a turnaround and execution case: its outlook depends on restoring momentum while carrying out its operating reset. On is a scaling and durability case: it needs to maintain premium demand while expanding without undermining pricing discipline or execution.
- Do not confuse business growth with investment return. Revenue momentum alone cannot show whether a share price already reflects expected growth. A relative stock decision also needs contemporaneous prices, valuation multiples, forward earnings estimates and comparable expected-return assumptions.
On founder and co-CEO David Allemann said the company was “proving that a brand can achieve global scale without compromising its premium brand positioning.” CFO Frank Sluis likewise said On would not compromise full-price integrity for volume in a promotional environment. Those statements describe management’s strategy, not independent confirmation that the strategy will succeed.
The comparison is time-sensitive: new company results, changes in currency or trade policy, and execution could alter the outlook after October 4, 2026.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
