Mass deportation could disrupt food production by reducing the number of workers available to plant, harvest, and pack crops on tight seasonal schedules. The likely effects would vary by crop and region: some farms might pay more or invest in labor-saving methods, while others could reduce production. The available evidence does not establish a precise nationwide grocery-price increase.
How many farmworkers could be affected?
The clearest recent estimate of workers’ legal status applies to hired crop farmworkers—not everyone working in agriculture. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) reports that 42% of hired crop farmworkers lacked work authorization in 2020–22. The National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS) does not cover livestock workers or H-2A workers, so that percentage should not be applied to the entire farm or food-processing workforce.
The Congressional Research Service (CRS), using the latest NAWS estimate available for its August 2025 brief, gives a range of 37%–47%, with a 95% confidence interval. CRS also calculates an approximate 327,000 unauthorized crop farmworkers by applying the lower end of that range to a 2022 crop-farmworker count. That figure is an estimate based on those assumptions, not a complete count of unauthorized workers across agriculture.
For context, CRS reports about 1.2 million domestic farmworkers on crop and livestock operations in 2024, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data. This broader count has a different scope from NAWS’s crop-only legal-status estimate and should not be combined with it as if both measured the same workforce.
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How could deportation affect food prices or cause shortages?
Fewer available workers can constrain a harvest
Crop work is seasonal, and some tasks must be completed within a limited window. If a farm cannot find enough workers when planting, picking, or packing needs to happen, it may harvest less, delay shipments, or leave some produce unpicked. A disruption at an individual farm does not automatically mean a national shortage, but widespread or poorly timed disruptions could reduce the supply of particular crops.
Higher costs or lower output can reach buyers differently
Growers facing a labor gap may raise wages, spend more on recruiting or housing, adopt labor-saving equipment, or plant less. If domestic output falls or production costs rise, prices for some foods could face upward pressure. The result would depend on the crop, harvest season, available inventories, import supply, and how much growers can adapt; it would not necessarily appear as a uniform increase across grocery bills.
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USDA ERS’s 2012 analysis modeled hypothetical changes in foreign-born farm labor supply and projected long-run economic outcomes. It is useful for understanding possible links among labor supply, agricultural output, exports, and wages, but it predates current conditions and does not model a specific contemporary mass-deportation plan. It is not a forecast of what consumers would pay under a defined policy.
Which foods depend most on immigrant farm labor?
The risk is greatest where production relies heavily on manual work and the crop cannot easily be harvested by machine. Labor-intensive fruits and vegetables are more exposed to a sudden shortage of available workers than crops for which mechanized production is a practical substitute. The effect would still differ among crops and growing regions; the available evidence does not support naming a single food as certain to become scarce or sharply more expensive.
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Farmers may also need workers for packing and other steps that get produce ready for market. A harvest that happens on time but cannot be packed or shipped promptly can still disrupt supply. The Associated Press’s June 13, 2025 report described concerns and local accounts in California; those reports illustrate a possible pathway, not a measurement of nationwide losses.
Can American workers replace migrant farmworkers?
Domestic workers can be part of the workforce, but the sources reviewed do not establish that they could replace all workers lost in a large, sudden reduction. Whether growers can recruit enough people depends on the timing, location, pay, working conditions, and labor needs of each operation. Nor is replacement simply a matter of matching one worker to another: a seasonal job must be filled where and when the crop needs attention.
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Responses have different trade-offs, and USDA ERS does not identify one solution that works for every crop.
| Response | Potential value | Constraint |
|---|---|---|
| Recruit or retain domestic workers | Can add workers without relying on a temporary visa channel. | Availability depends on local recruitment, job conditions, and whether workers can arrive before the seasonal window closes. |
| Use H-2A temporary agricultural workers | Provides a lawful channel for temporary agricultural labor. | It is a distinct program, not a measure of the unauthorized workforce, and certification positions are not equivalent to year-round worker headcounts. |
| Adopt mechanization or labor aids | Can reduce labor needs or improve productivity where equipment and methods fit the crop. | Crop suitability, product quality, investment costs, and the time required to implement changes limit how quickly this can substitute for workers. |
| Reduce acreage or production | Allows a farm to operate with a smaller workforce. | Less domestic production can reduce supply and increase reliance on other sources, depending on the crop and market. |
USDA ERS reports around 385,000 H-2A positions certified in fiscal year 2024, corresponding to around 184,000 full-year equivalents given the average certification duration. A certified position is not the same as a unique worker employed for a full year. These figures describe a significant but distinct temporary labor channel; they do not show how many workers would be available to replace people removed from the workforce.
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What is known—and what remains uncertain?
The evidence supports a plausible chain from reduced worker availability to harvest and packing constraints, farm adjustments, and potential pressure on some food prices. The scale would depend on how many workers were affected, where and when removals occurred, the crops involved, and the speed of adaptation.
CRS’s August 2025 brief relays agricultural stakeholders’ warnings that enforcement-related labor shortages could reduce domestic food supply and raise grocery prices. Those warnings show why the issue matters to growers and policymakers; they are not proof of a specific realized price increase. Likewise, an October 2025 Federal Register rule discusses possible agricultural workforce and production effects in support of an agency policy action. Figures presented in that rule are part of its rationale and should not be mistaken for observed nationwide outcomes from a completed mass-deportation program.
No named statistic in these sources directly quantifies the nationwide grocery-price effect of a specified mass-deportation program. A definite percentage increase—or a claim that grocery prices would rise by a particular amount—would go beyond what the evidence establishes.
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