McKinsey Global Institute projects that the U.S. economy could see about 41 million jobs of demand created and an automation-related reduction equivalent to about 36 million jobs by 2035—a net difference of roughly five million in its base case. But that does not mean the workers affected will automatically land the new jobs: McKinsey estimates about 11 million may need to change occupations, and many growing roles require credentials or retraining.
What McKinsey’s forecast says—and what it doesn’t
In its September 29, 2026 report, Workforce in motion: Skills and pathways to future jobs in the United States, McKinsey Global Institute models demand for U.S. work through 2035. Its base case estimates about 41 million jobs of demand and an automation-related reduction in labor demand equivalent to about 36 million jobs. The roughly five-million net difference is modeled, not a count of jobs already created or guaranteed openings.
The report’s headline does not mean AI alone will create all the growth. McKinsey groups forces behind rising demand into a “human economy,” including aging and care; a “physical economy,” including construction, infrastructure and energy investment; and a “technology economy,” including digital and AI infrastructure and services. Those forces may affect different occupations at different times.
Nor does technical automation potential translate directly into jobs lost. McKinsey estimates automation technologies could absorb about 54 percent of current work hours by 2035, but its model assumes organizations and markets offset about 60 percent of automation’s labor impact. The resulting modeled reduction is equivalent to about 21 percent of current work hours. Freed capacity may support more output, oversight, workflow redesign or other activities rather than translate one-for-one into fewer jobs.
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The model starts from 2025 occupations and activities, uses U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics occupational classifications mapped to a more detailed Lightcast taxonomy, and anchors overall employment growth to BLS projections of approximately 3.1 percent over a decade. It estimates how demand could shift among occupations under automation and other structural forces; it is not a prediction that each occupation will follow a single fixed path.
Why millions may still need to change occupations
Even if total demand rises, the jobs whose demand shrinks and the jobs that grow may not be accessible to the same workers. McKinsey estimates that about 11 million workers—roughly 7 percent of current employees—may need to change occupations by 2035. Its modeled range runs from about 6 million to more than 16 million, depending on how quickly organizations adopt automation and how strongly it reduces labor demand. That range is a scenario range, not a statistical confidence interval.
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Another roughly 25 million affected workers may be able to remain in their current occupation as growth offsets automation-related reductions, though their tasks could change. McKinsey estimates that about 770,000 workers a year may need to switch occupational groups through the next decade, around 3.6 times its historical average.
More than 75 percent of workers who may need occupational transitions are concentrated in three broad groups:
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- Office and administrative support
- Retail and sales
- Transportation and logistics
Potential employment declines are concentrated in those groups, while potential growth is concentrated in healthcare, construction and management, as well as infrastructure, energy, technology and digital services. These are broad categories: occupations within them have different task mixes, and many jobs may be reshaped rather than simply eliminated or expanded.
The openings may not match workers’ skills, pay or location
A growing job is not automatically a viable replacement for a declining one. McKinsey evaluates occupational pathways based on destination demand, skill overlap, wage preservation and the time needed to gain credentials. A move can be direct, winding or effectively unpaved when the gap is too large or barriers such as licensing, a degree, geography or language stand in the way.
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Only about one in seven workers who may need to transition has a direct path to growing work with little or no retraining, according to McKinsey; almost half may face an “unpaved” path. The report estimates that about 85 percent of growing jobs require credentials or certifications. In other words, a national increase in job demand does not guarantee that a particular worker can qualify for a nearby opening while preserving current income.
The distribution of growth and decline could also widen differences in pay and education requirements. McKinsey estimates that 60 percent of growing employment could be in the top two wage quintiles, while more than 70 percent of declining employment could be in the bottom two. It also estimates that 84 percent of growing occupations require postsecondary education, compared with 45 percent of declining occupations. These are projections about occupational groups, not a guarantee of any individual worker’s wages or education needs.
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What a worker can take from the forecast
The report is a reason to assess a career transition carefully, not to assume that a job loss is inevitable or that retraining will pay off automatically. If your work is exposed to changing demand, identify a specific target occupation and check whether the route is realistically accessible before committing time or money.
- Look at tasks, not just job titles. A broad occupation can contain work that is more or less exposed to automation. Identify which parts of your role are changing and which skills transfer to other work.
- Check the destination before choosing training. Look for actual demand in the occupation and location you are considering, then confirm required credentials, licenses and experience with relevant employers or official requirements.
- Calculate the full transition cost. Include tuition or exam fees, time out of work, travel or relocation, and the possibility that starting pay will be lower. Compare that with likely earnings and how long it may take to qualify.
- Ask whether the route preserves income. A path with strong skill overlap and a short credential may be more practical than a higher-demand role that requires years of study or a major pay cut.
McKinsey’s central point is captured in its line: “The next decade’s challenge is mobility, not scarcity.” The forecast says more work may be demanded overall; the harder question is whether people can reach it.
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