By estimated quarterly merchandise volume, TikTok Shop reached roughly eBay scale in the third quarter of 2025. EchoTik estimated TikTok Shop’s global gross merchandise value (GMV) at about $19 billion from July through September 2025. eBay reported approximately $20.1 billion in GMV for the same quarter. The comparison is meaningful, but only when “size” means quarterly GMV—not revenue, profit, users, valuation, geographic reach or marketplace maturity.
TikTok does not disclose a consolidated TikTok Shop sales figure in the cited coverage, so its number is an external estimate rather than an audited company filing. The result is best read as a Q3 2025 milestone reported in November 2025, not proof that TikTok Shop’s Q3 2026 sales exactly equal eBay’s.
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What the eBay comparison actually measures
GMV is the total value of merchandise sold through a marketplace before the platform’s commissions, advertising income, fulfillment costs, refunds and other expenses. It is not the platform’s revenue and certainly not its profit.
| Metric | TikTok Shop | eBay |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 merchandise volume | Approximately $19 billion, estimated by EchoTik | Approximately $20.1 billion, reported by eBay |
| Data status | Third-party estimate reported by WIRED | Company-reported GMV cited by WIRED |
| What the figures do not establish | Equal revenue, profit, buyers, sellers, retention, trust, product range or business value | |
TikTok’s own advertising documentation also separates seller GMV from gross revenue: Seller Center GMV is based on customer payment, while gross revenue can include platform discounts and exclude sales tax. See TikTok’s gross-revenue guidance.
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- Visa Virtual eGift Cards are designed for online use only. Gift Cards are subject to Terms and Conditions: a.co/5bw3qXJ
- When you access your Visa Virtual eGift Card for the first time, you’ll need to register your name, address, phone number, and email address via activationspot.com. These details should also be used as your billing address for online purchases, as many merchants require address verification for purchase authorization.
- This Visa Virtual eGift Card is non-reloadable. No cash or ATM access. Visa Virtual eGift Cards are emailed active.
- Funds do not expire but your Visa Virtual eGift Card has a ‘valid thru’ date (9 years from date of purchase). If funds remain after this date has passed, please call the Toll Free number found on your Visa Virtual eGift Card for a replacement card. A one-time purchase fee applies at the time of checkout.
- This item is not eligible for refund, resale, or return. Available for sale within the United States only. Not available to residents of Puerto Rico, Hawaii, New Mexico, South Dakota, West Virginia and the US Virgin Islands.
Quarterly comparison matters too. One quarter at similar GMV does not mean the companies have equal annual scale. Nor does a global TikTok total map neatly onto eBay’s geographic and category mix.
How TikTok Shop expanded so quickly
TikTok Shop turns entertainment traffic into product discovery and checkout inside the app. TikTok identifies three native formats: LIVE Shopping, Shoppable Video and Store Page.
Discovery before search
eBay generally serves shoppers who arrive with an item, category or specification in mind. TikTok can show a product while someone is watching unrelated entertainment, then use recommendation systems, a demonstration and in-app checkout to create purchase intent. That discovery-led model is an analytical distinction, not a claim that every TikTok order is impulse-driven.
Creators as a distributed sales force
Creators can demonstrate products, answer objections and attach products to videos or livestreams. TikTok Shop’s affiliate documentation says creators receive commissions on qualifying sales generated through their content, while merchants do not pay an affiliate commission on sales generated through their own account content. Commission terms vary by product and collaboration; there is no universal rate. Details are in the TikTok Shop affiliate guide.
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Rank #2
- Visa Virtual eGift Cards are designed for online use only. Gift Cards are subject to Terms and Conditions: a.co/5bw3qXJ
- When you access your Visa Virtual eGift Card for the first time, you’ll need to register your name, address, phone number, and email address via activationspot.com. These details should also be used as your billing address for online purchases, as many merchants require address verification for purchase authorization.
- This Visa Virtual eGift Card is non-reloadable. No cash or ATM access. Visa Virtual eGift Cards are emailed active.
- Funds do not expire but your Visa Virtual eGift Card has a ‘valid thru’ date (9 years from date of purchase). If funds remain after this date has passed, please call the Toll Free number found on your Visa Virtual eGift Card for a replacement card. A one-time purchase fee applies at the time of checkout.
- This item is not eligible for refund, resale, or return. Available for sale within the United States only. Not available to residents of Puerto Rico, Hawaii, New Mexico, South Dakota, West Virginia and the US Virgin Islands.
Promotion and infrastructure
Free-shipping campaigns, seller discounts, platform incentives, cross-border merchants and in-app payments can accelerate adoption. Those subsidies and costs also mean GMV growth alone cannot show whether the marketplace is profitable.
The U.S. trajectory is fast, but still different from China
TikTok Shop launched in the United States in September 2023. EchoTik estimated U.S. sales of $4 billion to $4.5 billion in Q3 2025, about 125% higher than Q2 2025. TikTok said livestream sessions increased 72% year over year in September 2025 and sales increased 120% year over year in June 2025; both are company-provided growth figures reported by WIRED, not independently audited measurements.
The U.S. model appears to rely heavily on short videos, creator recommendations and algorithmic product feeds. Interviewed sources cited by WIRED estimated livestream shopping at roughly 2% of U.S. TikTok traffic, compared with an approximately 50% figure for China’s Douyin. Those are interviewee estimates, not official platform-wide statistics. TikTok has not reproduced China’s level of livestream-shopping penetration in the United States, and current growth does not demonstrate that American consumers will adopt long livestream sessions at the same rate.
Why Southeast Asia is the stronger livestream case
Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines have mobile-first shopping behavior, established creator-commerce networks and greater familiarity with livestream selling. In some of these markets, competition from Amazon-style incumbents is less intense, and low-price products fit social commerce particularly well.
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Rank #3
- Visa Virtual eGift Cards are designed for online use only. Gift Cards are subject to Terms and Conditions: a.co/5bw3qXJ
- When you access your Visa Virtual eGift Card for the first time, you’ll need to register your name, address, phone number, and email address via activationspot.com. These details should also be used as your billing address for online purchases, as many merchants require address verification for purchase authorization.
- This Visa Virtual eGift Card is non-reloadable. No cash or ATM access. Visa Virtual eGift Cards are emailed active.
- Funds do not expire but your Visa Virtual eGift Card has a ‘valid thru’ date (9 years from date of purchase). If funds remain after this date has passed, please call the Toll Free number found on your Visa Virtual eGift Card for a replacement card. A one-time purchase fee applies at the time of checkout.
- This item is not eligible for refund, resale, or return. Available for sale within the United States only. Not available to residents of Puerto Rico, Hawaii, New Mexico, South Dakota, West Virginia and the US Virgin Islands.
WIRED reported that the four markets collectively formed a stronger livestream-commerce story than the United States, although no individual country exceeded U.S. sales. A Thai livestream event that generated more than $17 million in product sales over six days illustrates the potential of exceptional events; it is not a representative daily or seller average. Regional results also cannot simply be transplanted to the U.S., where shopping habits, logistics and consumer-protection rules differ.
Why similar GMV does not make TikTok Shop another eBay
Different demand engines
TikTok is strongest when a product can be shown, reviewed, compared or made culturally relevant: beauty, fashion, demonstrable gadgets and trend-led products. eBay remains structurally strong in search-led purchases, used and refurbished goods, collectibles, parts, accessories and long-tail inventory.
Different business economics
A marketplace’s GMV can be reduced by referral fees, creator commissions, advertising, shipping, fulfillment, discounts, refunds and returns before a seller sees a contribution margin. The same GMV can therefore produce very different revenue and profit outcomes across platforms.
Different maturity and relationships
eBay has more than three decades of marketplace history and established seller workflows. TikTok Shop is younger and more dependent on algorithmic distribution, creator participation and promotional tools. Comparable quarterly merchandise volume does not establish comparable buyer loyalty, merchant quality or owned customer relationships.
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- Gift Cards are shipped active and ready for use.
- This card is non-reloadable. No cash or ATM access. Funds do not expire. If available funds remain on your card after the valid thru date has passed, please call customer service for a replacement card. A one-time purchase fee applies at the time of checkout. No fees after purchase.
- To access your card information safely, type the complete website address shown on your Gift Card (MyGift.GiftCardMall.com) directly into your browser's address bar. Don't use search engines or shortened versions of the website address, as these may lead you to fake or fraudulent sites. Do not provide any Gift Card details (example: Card Number) to someone you do not know or trust. If you believe you've reached an illegitimate website, contact cardholder service at 1-888-524-1283. Be cautious of phishing sites, there are a variety of scams in which fraudsters try to trick others into paying with gift cards.
- To report your Lost or Stolen Physical Visa Card, call Customer Service 24/7 at 1 (888) 524-1283 to cancel your Gift Card as soon as you can. You will be asked to provide the Gift Card number and other identifying information.
- Use your Visa Gift Card in the U.S. everywhere Visa debit cards are accepted, including online.
The economics behind a TikTok Shop order
Sellers should calculate net contribution rather than treat GMV as income. TikTok’s settlement documentation lists separate components including referral fees, affiliate commissions, Shop Ads commissions, fulfillment fees, refunds, logistics adjustments and other adjustments. The settlement-report guide describes these entries.
A practical contribution-margin calculation
- Start with the amount the customer paid for the order.
- Subtract product cost, seller-funded discounts and expected returns.
- Subtract referral fees and any creator affiliate commission.
- Subtract Shop Ads spend or other paid acquisition costs.
- Subtract pick-and-pack, storage, shipping and payment-related adjustments.
- Reserve for refunds, damaged goods, chargebacks, taxes and customer support.
Only the remainder is a useful contribution figure. A high return-rate category such as fashion, or a low-price item with disproportionate shipping and commission costs, can show strong GMV while producing little or no profit.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Fulfillment can change the answer
Fulfilled by TikTok (FBT) covers picking, packing, packaging and last-mile delivery. Under the cited U.S. program rules, FBT-fulfilled products qualify for free shipping by default. Sellers who opt out face a $30 free-shipping threshold and a $5.99 shopper-paid shipping charge for qualifying orders below that threshold.
Costs vary with product weight, dimensional weight, units per order, storage duration, packaging and route. TikTok’s current documentation records fee changes effective January 12, May 20 and June 18, 2026, so sellers should use the live rate card rather than an old calculator. See the FBT program documentation.
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- Gift Cards are shipped active and ready for use.
- This card is non-reloadable. No cash or ATM access. Funds do not expire. If available funds remain on your card after the valid thru date has passed, please call customer service for a replacement card. A one-time purchase fee applies at the time of checkout. No fees after purchase.
- To access your card information safely, type the complete website address shown on your Gift Card (MyGift.GiftCardMall.com) directly into your browser's address bar. Don't use search engines or shortened versions of the website address, as these may lead you to fake or fraudulent sites. Do not provide any Gift Card details (example: Card Number) to someone you do not know or trust. If you believe you've reached an illegitimate website, contact cardholder service at 1-888-524-1283. Be cautious of phishing sites, there are a variety of scams in which fraudsters try to trick others into paying with gift cards.
- To report your Lost or Stolen Physical Visa Card, call Customer Service 24/7 at 1 (888) 524-1283 to cancel your Gift Card as soon as you can. You will be asked to provide the Gift Card number and other identifying information.
- Use your Visa Gift Card in the U.S. everywhere Visa debit cards are accepted, including online.
TikTok’s Earnings Analytics covers transactions created after January 1, 2025 and can filter paid orders and settled adjustments by settlement, paid, shipped and delivered dates. Sellers should reconcile those reports to bank deposits and inventory records.
What sellers should do with the opportunity
Choose products that demonstrate well
Visible results, transformations, unboxings, comparisons and quick use cases are naturally suited to short video and creator promotion. Commodities that require extensive specifications may perform better in search-led channels.
Model the full cost before scaling
Include commissions, discounts, returns, advertising, fulfillment and creator payments before accepting a viral-order forecast. TikTok’s seller acquisition page advertises 0% commission for the first 90 days, but eligibility, geography, category and current terms should be confirmed at signup.
Spread creator and inventory risk
Test multiple creators and formats instead of depending on one viral account. Keep replenishment flexible: a breakout video can create a stockout, followed by a sharp decline when recommendation traffic moves on.
Build retention outside the algorithm
Use TikTok for discovery, but develop lawful email, SMS, subscription or direct-site retention where appropriate. A first order is not proof of repeat demand, and platform access can change through policy, fee or account-enforcement decisions.
Risks that a GMV headline hides
- Creator commissions and paid distribution can consume margin.
- Returns, refunds and customer-service work can be substantial.
- Viral demand is volatile and can create inventory imbalances.
- Products must comply with marketplace, advertising, health-claim, copyright and consumer-protection rules.
- Counterfeit-sensitive categories carry trust and enforcement risk.
- Bulky, fragile, perishable or regulated products are harder to fulfill economically.
- International sellers face different onboarding, tax, shipping and consumer-protection requirements.
- TikTok’s seller terms allow fee changes with notice; consult the current U.S. Seller Terms.
What the milestone means for eBay and the market
TikTok Shop is not an immediate replacement for eBay. It is a warning that a discovery-led platform can reach comparable quarterly merchandise volume while serving a different shopping mission. eBay’s search, collectibles, parts and long-tail strengths remain distinct.
For brands and investors, the strategic shift is more important than the headline ranking: commerce can begin inside entertainment rather than at a marketplace search box. The unresolved question is whether TikTok can sustain demand and merchant economics after promotional support declines, while converting one-time discovery purchases into repeat, profitable relationships.
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