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Possibly, but a December cut is not established. The Federal Reserve raised its policy range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026, and its latest projections put the median year-end rate at 4.1%—up from 3.8% in June. Those official signals do not point to an assured reduction. CME FedWatch is the right place to see futures-implied odds for the December 8–9 meeting, but the meeting-specific percentages were not available in the retrieved data as of September 28.
What the Fed has actually decided
At its September 16 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously increased the federal funds target range by 25 basis points, to 3.75%–4.00%. In its official statement, the Committee said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained elevated.
That is the current policy setting. It is not a signal that a December cut has been promised. The next scheduled meetings are October 27–28 and December 8–9, according to the Federal Reserve calendar.
Three different signals—and what each one says
| Signal | Latest reading | What it indicates | Important limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current policy | Target range of 3.75%–4.00% after the September 16 increase | The Fed most recently tightened policy. | This is an actual decision, not a forecast of December. |
| Policymaker projections | September SEP median year-end 2026 rate: 4.1%; June median: 3.8% | The median projection moved higher, which does not point toward an assumed cut. | A dot is an individual participant’s assessment of appropriate policy, not a binding Committee commitment. |
| Market pricing | CME FedWatch uses 30-Day Fed Funds futures to derive meeting probabilities | It can show how traders are pricing each December outcome. | The live December 8–9 distribution was not visible in the retrieved page, so no exact percentage can be stated here. |
Why the September projections do not confirm a cut
The September Summary of Economic Projections lists a median appropriate federal funds rate of 4.1% at year-end 2026, compared with 3.8% in the June projection. The median is slightly above the midpoint of the current 3.75%–4.00% range, so it is not evidence of a planned reduction.
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The same table shows median 2026 projections of 3.7% PCE inflation, 2.3% real GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. These figures describe participants’ outlooks under their own assessments of appropriate policy. They are not unconditional forecasts of what the Committee must do in December.
The Federal Reserve also stresses that projections are uncertain. Inflation, employment, growth and financial conditions can change between the September meeting and December, and participants can revise their views accordingly.
What “markets say yes” should mean
Market expectations are separate from the Fed’s dots. CME’s FedWatch Tool converts prices of 30-Day Fed Funds futures into an implied probability distribution for a chosen meeting. The user guide explains that methodology.
An implied probability is a market price, not a promise by policymakers. It can move whenever economic data, speeches, Treasury yields, risk sentiment or positioning changes. Because the retrieved CME page did not provide the December meeting’s live outcome percentages, it is not supportable to claim that markets currently assign a specific probability—or to treat “markets say yes” as a verified fact—without checking the tool directly.
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How to check the December odds yourself
- Open CME FedWatch and select the meeting dated December 8–9, 2026.
- Record the displayed probability for each target-rate outcome, not just the headline probability of any move.
- Note the retrieval date and time; futures-implied odds are continuously changing.
- Compare the distribution with the current 3.75%–4.00% range and the September SEP, keeping market pricing and policymaker projections separate.
What could change the decision before December
The October meeting comes before the December decision and can alter the policy path. Between meetings, officials will receive additional inflation and labor-market information and reassess whether inflation is moving toward the Federal Reserve’s objective, whether activity remains solid and whether employment risks are rising. A material change in those inputs could move both the Committee’s outlook and futures pricing.
The December meeting is scheduled to include a new SEP. That update will show whether participants’ median rate, inflation, growth and unemployment projections have shifted since September, but it still will not bind the Committee to a particular vote.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Bottom line for savers and borrowers
The defensible answer on September 28, 2026 is: the Fed could cut in December, but the latest official evidence does not establish that it will. The most recent action was a rate increase, and the September median year-end projection rose to 4.1% from 3.8%. Anyone citing a precise “market odds” figure should verify the live December distribution in CME FedWatch rather than relying on an older snapshot or another meeting’s probabilities.
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