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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsNorth Dakota calf prices fell sharply in late 2025 after President Donald Trump signaled support for importing more beef from Argentina, but the episode did not establish that imports alone caused the decline. Futures-market moves and expectations about policy also mattered. The price changes below describe the weeks reported in November 2025—not today’s cattle market.
Why did cattle prices drop in late 2025?
In October 2025, cattle prices had reached record highs. After Trump signaled support for beef imports from Argentina as a way to lower consumer prices, cattle futures fell and live-cattle prices weakened at North Dakota sale barns. The timing drew attention to import policy, but the account does not show that one announcement was the sole cause of the market move.
North Dakota Monitor reported that USDA weekly reports for the Dickinson, Mandan and Napoleon auction barns showed calf prices falling $20–$30 per hundredweight in the first week after Trump’s comments, then another $15–$30 per hundredweight the following week. A hundredweight is 100 pounds. The article illustrated the impact with a 500-pound steer calf that might have brought about $300 more before the decline. These are reported figures from that 2025 episode, not current quotes.
How futures can affect the price a rancher receives
Cattle futures trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. They provide a market signal that can influence what buyers bid for calves, but they do not mechanically set the price at a local sale barn. Buyers’ offers reflect futures alongside other market conditions and expectations.
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Tim Petry, a livestock economist at North Dakota State University, described futures as prone to overreaction: “The futures market always overreacts to everything.” He expected volatility to continue while tariff questions remained unsettled. A sudden futures move can therefore change the mood around bids without, by itself, proving that the longer-term supply-and-demand picture has changed.
Why ranchers may not be able to wait for a better price
Fall is a common time for calves to be sold and moved to feedlots, where they gain weight before processing. A rancher’s choice to delay a sale can be limited by seasonal pasture conditions and grazing arrangements. Federal grazing leases usually require grazing to end by mid-October, which can make waiting for a rebound impractical for some producers.
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Why ranchers read the outlook differently
August Heupel: fundamentals still supported cattle
August Heupel, who ranches near Medina and is vice president of the Independent Beef Association of North Dakota, had not yet sold his 2025 beef calves when prices fell, so he had avoided the immediate decline. He said, “It feels like the sky is done falling.” Heupel argued that the underlying picture had not changed: “There’s still strong demand, and there’s still low cattle numbers.” He also said the cash market remained exceptionally good for cattle producers and expected producers to be okay.
Chad Berger: tariffs had helped support prices
Chad Berger, a fifth-generation rancher in Mandan, offered a different reading of policy’s role. While some people blamed Trump for the price swings, Berger credited Trump’s tariffs with helping drive prices up. He hoped prices would hold so ranchers, feeders and others in the cattle business could earn money and sustain their operations. The two views underscore that market participants can agree prices moved while disagreeing about which policy effects mattered most.
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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Julie Fedorchak: producers want policy consistency
North Dakota U.S. Representative Julie Fedorchak met with beef-industry participants after joining House members who asked the administration for more information about its import policy. She summarized ranchers’ request as a need for “consistent, commonsense policies that let them do what they do best.” That is a policy concern, not a price forecast.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the ‘sky is done falling’ remark does—and does not—mean
Heupel’s phrase captured his view that the abrupt decline might be easing, not a guarantee that prices had bottomed or that every rancher had the same exposure. His calves were still unsold at the time, and sale timing varies by producer. The November 2025 report is a snapshot of a specific market episode; it cannot establish whether cattle prices are currently high, low or rising.
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