The 2.6% growth figure for Pakistan’s FY2025-26 was a World Bank projection published on October 7, 2025, under a flood scenario. It is no longer the Bank’s current number. Three weeks later, on October 28, 2025, the Bank raised its FY2025-26 projection to 3.0%, and its June 2026 Global Economic Prospects still lists 3.0% for that year, now labelled an estimate. Pakistan’s Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has separately reported a provisional annual figure of 3.70% for the same fiscal year. Cite the 2.6% number only as a dated, superseded World Bank flood-scenario estimate.
Which figure to cite today
Pakistan’s fiscal year 2025-26 runs from July 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026, and the figures below cover that period. Three numbers circulate and they are not interchangeable:
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- 3.0% is the World Bank’s latest country-level figure for FY2025/26 that we could confirm, from the June 2026 Global Economic Prospects (GEP), where it is labelled an estimate.
- 3.70% is PBS’s provisional annual GDP growth estimate for FY2025/26, approved by the National Accounts Committee on May 13, 2026. It comes from Pakistan’s official national accounts process, not from the World Bank.
- 2.6% is the World Bank’s superseded October 7, 2025 flood-scenario projection.
The World Bank revises its forecasts regularly, and PBS revises national accounts figures. Before citing any of these numbers, check the World Bank’s Pakistan country page and PBS’s national accounts releases for anything newer.
Timeline of the estimates
| Date | Publisher and document | FY2025/26 growth | Status and basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 2025 | World Bank Pakistan Development Update (PDU) | 3.1% | Projection made before the flood-scenario update. |
| October 7, 2025 | World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook and regional Economic Update | 2.6% | Projection under a flood scenario, based on early assessments. The Bank said the full extent of the damage was highly uncertain. |
| October 28, 2025 | World Bank PDU | 3.0% | Revised projection, using additional flood information from the Government of Pakistan and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) that pointed to smaller agricultural-output losses. |
| June 2026 | World Bank Global Economic Prospects, country table | 3.0% | Estimate for FY2025/26. The same table lists 3.2% for FY2026/27 as a forecast. |
| May 13, 2026 | PBS, National Accounts Committee | 3.70% | Provisional annual GDP growth estimate. PBS also publishes provisional quarterly rates. |
Why the Bank’s estimate moved
The flood scenario behind 2.6%
The October 7 projection was prepared while major flooding was under way. Early data showed severe agricultural losses, particularly in Punjab, and the Bank stated plainly that the full damage was not yet known. A projection built on that scenario was a provisional planning number, not a final assessment of the year.
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The later data behind 3.0%
The October 28 PDU incorporated flood-impact information from the government and the FAO. The Bank said this information suggested smaller effects on agricultural output than the early scenario assumed, so it lifted the FY2025/26 projection from 2.6% to 3.0%. The change reflects a different information set, not a change in the Bank’s view of the economy’s underlying strength.
The official provisional figure: 3.70%
PBS reported on May 13, 2026 that the National Accounts Committee had approved a provisional 3.70% GDP growth rate for FY2025/26. The figure is labelled provisional in PBS’s own release, so it should be treated as the official provisional national estimate rather than a final outturn. PBS also publishes provisional quarterly growth rates, which show how the annual figure was built up over the year.
The World Bank and PBS figures come from different publishers, on different dates, with different status labels. The available documentation does not establish that the two use identical methods, so the gap between 3.0% and 3.70% should not be presented as a disagreement between the two institutions.
Two different 2.6% figures
The October 28, 2025 PDU release also contains a 2.6% number, but it refers to the past. It states that growth was 3.0% in FY2024/25, up from 2.6% in FY2023/24. That historical figure has nothing to do with the FY2025/26 projection of October 7, 2025, so do not combine the two when citing the Bank.
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What the Bank expected for FY2026/27
The October 2025 PDU expected growth to recover to 3.4% in FY2026/27, conditional on continued macroeconomic stability and key reforms. It listed tight fiscal policy, global uncertainty, and vulnerability to natural disasters and climate shocks as constraints. The June 2026 GEP later put FY2026/27 at 3.2% as a forecast. The 3.4% figure is therefore an October 2025 conditional expectation, and the 3.2% figure is the more recent World Bank forecast for that year.
What the officials said
Bolormaa Amgaabazar, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan, said in the October 28, 2025 press release: “Pakistan’s recent floods have imposed significant human costs and economic losses, dampening growth prospects, and adding pressure on macroeconomic stability.”
Mukhtar Ul Hasan, identified in the same release as lead author of the report, said: “Sustaining progress will require a balanced mix of revenue and expenditure measures to manage flood impacts while maintaining progress towards fiscal consolidation.”
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to compare these estimates
Before setting two Pakistan growth numbers side by side, check five things:
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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →- Publication date: a figure from October 2025 may have been replaced by a later release.
- Publisher: World Bank projections and PBS national accounts estimates are produced by different bodies.
- Status: a projection, an estimate, and a provisional annual estimate carry different levels of confidence.
- Scenario and information set: a flood-scenario figure reflects the data available at that moment, not the final damage.
- Fiscal year covered: confirm whether the figure refers to FY2025/26, FY2026/27, or a historical year.
Read the figure with its date, owner and status attached. A number stripped of those details is easy to misquote.
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