On July 25, 2024, Chicago wheat and soybean futures edged lower while corn was nearly unchanged and slightly higher. Weather worries offered some support, but favorable crop prospects, plentiful global supplies, export competition and concerns about Chinese demand kept a lid on prices.
How Chicago grain futures moved
At 1120 GMT on July 25, 2024, Reuters reported these moves in the most-active Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) contracts:
| Contract | Move | Price at 1120 GMT |
|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | Down 0.3% | $10.61¼ a bushel |
| Corn | Up 0.1% | $4.18¼ a bushel |
| Wheat | Down 0.6% | $5.43½ a bushel |
These are historical intraday prices, not current quotes or closing prices. The mixed session reflected competing signals: weather risk supported prices, while crop outlooks and ample supplies weighed on them.
Weather concerns met a more reassuring crop outlook
Dry weather in parts of the northern United States and Canada had helped lift corn and soybean prices to two-week highs earlier that week. But the concern was moderated by generally favorable field conditions so far in the growing year.
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In North Dakota, scouts on a U.S. spring-wheat crop tour expected yields to be the highest since at least 1994. That was a tour estimate, not a final measured yield. The outlook tempered fears that dry conditions would cause enough crop damage to tighten supply materially.
Global supply and export competition limited gains
Reuters described global grain supplies as plentiful and said cheaper South American and Black Sea exports were competing with U.S. grain. That competition constrained the potential for U.S. prices to rise, despite weather-related support. At the time, U.S. grain prices were near their lowest levels since 2020, according to the report.
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China-related demand concerns weighed on sentiment
Concern about Chinese demand was hanging over commodity markets, including grains. Reuters reported that China had said its soybean self-sufficiency rate had risen by nearly four percentage points over two years. That statement added to market attention on the country’s need for imported soybeans, although the report did not quantify any resulting change in purchases.
Short positioning could amplify a rally
Analysts cited by Reuters said large speculative short positions left grain markets vulnerable to short-covering rallies. When traders who have bet on falling prices buy contracts to close those positions, their buying can push prices higher. That possibility did not itself reverse the day’s declines in wheat and soybeans, but it was another factor traders were watching.
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Australian analyst Tobin Gorey described soy and corn as “pretty sell supplied” and said current weather issues were material but not large enough to change the perception that supply was comfortable. His comments captured the balance underpinning the session: weather mattered, but it had not displaced the broader supply picture.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the session does—and does not—show
The day’s small moves show how futures can respond to several opposing forces at once: weather risk can support prices even as strong crop prospects, competing exporters and demand concerns restrain them. A single intraday session does not establish a longer-term trend, and the figures above should be read in the context of July 25, 2024 rather than as a guide to current prices.
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