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USDA’s October 2026 WASDE is scheduled for Friday, October 9, at noon ET. The report was not yet available as of October 8, so its official figures—and the resulting stocks-to-use ratios—remain unknown. Ahead of the release, corn has the clearest upward pressure on projected ending stocks because old-crop stocks came in larger than expected. Soybeans start from a tighter old-crop position, while wheat stocks could edge higher if weak exports weigh on use.
What the October report could change
WASDE updates monthly estimates of supply and use for U.S. and global commodities. The October report will show USDA’s official revisions; market previews are expectations, not report results. USDA lists report formats and its 2026 release schedule on the WASDE report page.
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The main distinction is between the old marketing year just ended and the new one now being projected. September 1 Grain Stocks data help revise the old year’s disappearance and set the starting inventory for the new year. New-crop yield, harvested area, exports, domestic use and residual adjustments can then alter projected ending stocks.
Corn: larger carry-in puts stocks under upward pressure
USDA’s September WASDE projected 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.6 billion bushels, down 86 million from August. The September yield estimate was 178.5 bushels per acre, with projected use of 16.2 billion bushels. USDA attributed the lower ending-stocks projection to smaller supply, partly offset by reduced use. Those are September estimates, not October outcomes. See USDA’s September 2026 WASDE-675.
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The subsequent Grain Stocks report showed 2.10 billion bushels of old-crop corn on hand September 1, up 35% from a year earlier. June–August disappearance was 3.20 billion bushels, compared with 3.09 billion in the same period the prior year, according to USDA NASS.
In an October 7 preview, Pro Farmer reported that the Grain Stocks figure implied old-crop corn stocks of 2.095 billion bushels—173 million above September WASDE—and said a figure near that level was likely to appear in October’s balance sheet. The preview said much of the increase would likely be reflected as lower feed and residual use. It also reported a Reuters-poll average yield expectation of 177.8 bushels per acre, below USDA’s September 178.5, but with a wide 173.2–182.1 range. These are market expectations, not USDA estimates. The larger carry-in raises projected new-crop stocks unless a lower yield or stronger use offsets it; the size of any stocks-to-use change depends on both the ending-stock estimate and total use.
Soybeans: tighter old-crop stocks, but production and demand still matter
September WASDE projected 2026/27 soybean ending stocks at 310 million bushels, 10 million lower than August. It projected production of 4.5 billion bushels and exports of 1.69 billion. NASS later reported that old-crop soybean stocks on September 1 were down 3% year over year.
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Pro Farmer’s October 7 preview said Grain Stocks implied old-crop ending stocks of 315.1 million bushels, down 9.7 million, with demand running strong. It described a possible modest October reduction in new-crop ending stocks if production remained close to September’s forecast. Analyst yield expectations averaged 52.9 bushels per acre, with a 51.4–54.1 range. The outcome still depends on production and demand, including crush and exports; the preview’s conditional scenario is not an official forecast.
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USDA said aggregate U.S. wheat supply and use were unchanged in its September report. NASS reported all-wheat stocks down 14% year over year on September 1, while June–August disappearance was 608 million bushels, down 14% from a year earlier.
Pro Farmer’s October preview said annual small-grains data had largely settled production and that the analyst average expected ending stocks about 4 million bushels higher. It also flagged lagging exports and the possibility that USDA would reduce its export forecast. A reduction in exports would lower use and could support higher ending stocks; the actual October balance depends on USDA’s revisions.
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How to interpret stocks-to-use
Ending stocks are the projected inventory remaining at the end of a marketing year. Stocks-to-use divides that inventory by total use for the same commodity and marketing year. A lower ratio generally means a smaller inventory buffer relative to demand; a higher ratio means a larger buffer.
When October figures are released, compare each commodity with its September balance sheet using the same marketing-year basis. A useful comparison identifies the ending-stock estimate, total-use denominator, resulting ratio, and month-over-month change. Do not treat the old-crop September 1 stock count as the new-crop ending-stock forecast: it informs carry-in, while the rest of the new-year balance sheet can still change.
When the official figures will be available
The October WASDE is scheduled for October 9, 2026, at 12:00 p.m. ET. Until USDA publishes it, the figures discussed here are either September official estimates or attributed pre-report expectations. The October report, rather than those expectations, will establish the official stocks and use projections.
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