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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteA double-dip recession is an informal description of two economic downturns with a brief recovery between them. The pattern resembles a “W”: activity declines, rebounds, declines again, then recovers. In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not treat “double-dip recession” as a separate official category; whether the second decline counts as a new recession depends on how long and how strongly the economy recovered in between.
What makes a recession a double dip?
The phrase describes a sequence: a broad economic downturn, an intervening recovery, and then another downturn. The label does not by itself determine whether the economy experienced two recessions or one unusually long recession. For US business-cycle dating, NBER examines the intervening upturn’s duration and strength before deciding whether it was a distinct expansion. NBER’s business-cycle dating FAQ says, “The NBER does not define a special category called a double-dip recession.”
“W-shaped” is a useful visual shorthand, not a formal test. The economy also need not regain its previous peak or trend during the recovery for that interval to count as an expansion.
How does NBER decide whether a downturn is a recession?
NBER’s traditional definition is “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” Its dating committee considers three characteristics: depth, diffusion across the economy, and duration. An exceptionally severe decline on one dimension can partly offset less pronounced evidence on another; there is no single mechanical cutoff.
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It considers multiple indicators
The committee assesses monthly evidence including real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, real personal consumption expenditures, inflation-adjusted manufacturing and trade sales, household-survey employment, and industrial production. It also considers quarterly measures: real gross domestic product (GDP) and real gross domestic income (GDI) receive equal weight in its assessment of production. NBER says it has no fixed rule for which indicators contribute or how much each is weighted. See its explanation of the dating procedure.
Two falling GDP quarters are not the official trigger
Two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP is a common shorthand, but it is not the official US designation. Some recessions have not included two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP. GDP matters, but NBER looks at broader monthly and quarterly evidence; the Bureau of Economic Analysis likewise describes the two-quarter formulation as unofficial and notes the importance of NBER’s broader indicators, particularly employment. BEA’s explanation of the two-quarter rule provides that distinction.
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The early-1980s US double dip
The US recessions of 1980 and 1981–82 are a frequently cited example of the pattern. NBER dated a business-cycle peak in January 1980 and a trough in July 1980. It then recognized the July 1980–July 1981 interval as a recovery, before dating another peak in July 1981 and a new recession. The second downturn ended at a trough in November 1982.
In its January 6, 1982 announcement, NBER said the resurgence of activity after the July 1980 trough “clearly constituted a business cycle recovery.” It also noted that not all indicators had regained their 1979–80 peaks by summer 1981. That did not prevent the committee from recognizing an expansion: a recovery does not require every measure to return to its prior level. The July 1980–July 1981 expansion lasted 12 months, which the announcement called the shortest since World War II at that time. Read NBER’s January 6, 1982 announcement.
How to interpret the term in economic news
- Weak growth is not automatically a recession. The official US definition concerns a significant, broad decline, not simply slow growth or difficult economic conditions.
- A rebound does not settle the classification. A short-lived upturn might be part of one prolonged downturn, or it might be a distinct expansion; the length and strength of the recovery matter.
- The label is descriptive, not an official finding. “Double dip” can help describe a W-shaped sequence, but NBER’s chronology—not the phrase itself—determines whether it records one recession or two.
What NBER’s latest displayed dates do—and do not—show
When accessed on October 8, 2026, NBER’s live business-cycle page displayed February 2020 as the latest US peak and April 2020 as the latest trough. Its downloadable chronology identifies March 14, 2023 as the date its business-cycle data were last updated. These are the dates shown on those NBER pages, not a real-time economic assessment or forecast. NBER’s business-cycle dating page and chronology table provide the underlying dates and update information.
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