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On August 31, 2023, Reuters reported that heat, dry conditions and frost were affecting Argentina’s 2023/24 wheat crop. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expected rain in some farming areas during the first half of September, but that was a forecast—not confirmation of rainfall or a measured recovery in yields.
What damaged Argentina’s wheat crop?
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said high temperatures, dry conditions and frost had begun affecting yields. In its weekly report, the Exchange said scarce rain was continuing to harm crop condition as wheat approached critical growth stages, with particular concern in central and northern agricultural regions. Reuters reported these findings on August 31, 2023.
The report did not quantify yield losses caused by the weather. It also described the previous 2022/23 crop as having been halved by historic drought; that characterization belongs to Reuters’ account and is not a precise estimate of the 2023/24 weather damage.
Where were conditions most concerning?
The Exchange’s account contrasted moisture-stressed areas in central and northern agricultural regions with southern Buenos Aires, where crops were reported in good condition and humidity was adequate. These are regional observations; they do not establish that every farm within those areas had the same conditions.
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Will rain help Argentina’s wheat crop?
Rain could have offered relief to some fields, especially crops in Buenos Aires and La Pampa entering early reproductive stages. But the forecast alone cannot establish whether rain fell, how much reached each location, or whether it changed final yields. Reuters’ report supplied no later rainfall measurement or quantified yield outcome.
When was rain expected, and how large was the crop?
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expected rain in some wheat-growing areas in the first half of September 2023. It reported that six million hectares had been sown since the 2023/24 campaign began in May. Harvest was expected to begin in November and continue through January. The forecast and harvest dates were expectations stated at the time, not confirmed outcomes.
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How to distinguish the 2023 report from later outlooks
The August 2023 story concerns the 2023/24 campaign, not Argentina’s current crop outlook. A separate USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecast for marketing year 2026/27 put production at 20.7 million metric tons, 25% below 2025/26, mainly because yields were expected to decline from an exceptional prior-season level. That later outlook also cited favorable recent soil moisture and potential El Niño rainfall, alongside late-season disease risk. Those projections describe a different season and should not be used to infer the 2023/24 crop’s final result.
Climate tools can also show why broad national averages need caution. CONICET’s September 29, 2026 account of AgroENSO says the tool draws on 35 years of historical climate and yield data. Its national-scale analysis found no significant climate response for winter crops such as wheat and barley, while regional averages can conceal local differences. This is general methodological context, not a retrospective measurement of the 2023 event.
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For current weekly monitoring of crop, soil-water, precipitation, temperature and forecast conditions, Argentina’s official AgroMet Semanal index lists reports through October 7, 2026.
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