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Some U.S. startup valuations have reached new highs, but there is no evidence that valuations across the entire startup market have done so or that the venture slump is over. Carta reported record Q4 2025 median post-money valuations for seed and Series A rounds on its platform. By Q1 2026, its data also showed a market heavily concentrated in AI, different trends by funding stage, and an 11.4% down-round rate. Meanwhile, venture-backed exits had improved but had not cleared the liquidity backlog. The rebound is real in some measures; it is not a universal recovery.
What has actually reached an all-time high?
The strongest evidence for record startup valuations comes from Carta’s platform data for U.S. private-company fundraising. In Q4 2025, Carta reported median post-money valuations of $24 million for primary seed rounds and $78.7 million for primary Series A rounds. Carta described both as new highs in its dataset.
| Measure | Reported value | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Primary seed median post-money valuation | $24 million — Carta, Q4 2025 | Up from $18 million in Q4 2024 and $16 million in Q4 2023 |
| Primary Series A median post-money valuation | $78.7 million — Carta, Q4 2025 | Up 37% year over year from $57.5 million |
Carta’s early-stage valuation report covers rounds recorded on its platform, not every startup or investor. These are medians: half of the rounds in the relevant group were above the figure and half below. They do not mean a typical company in every sector could raise at that price, nor do they measure what investors ultimately receive when shares are sold.
Valuation terminology matters. A post-money valuation is the company’s implied value after a financing round; a pre-money valuation is the implied value before new capital is added. The figures above are post-money medians for seed and Series A rounds, so they should not be compared casually with a pre-money figure, an IPO valuation, or a secondary-market transaction.
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Why the rebound is not broad-based
Carta’s subsequent Q1 2026 report shows why a high median cannot stand in for the entire venture market. More than 60% of venture capital raised by companies on Carta during that quarter went to AI companies. Within Series A, Carta reported a $300 million median valuation for AI foundational-model startups, compared with $55 million for non-AI startups. Those groups are not interchangeable, and neither figure is a market-wide startup median.
The trend also varied by stage. Carta reported that since Q1 2025, primary pre-money valuations rose 17.2% for Series B and 12.5% for Series C. At the same time, early-stage primary valuations softened during Q1 2026, and 11.4% of rounds on the platform were down rounds—financings priced below a company’s previous round. A down-round rate is not the share of all startups losing value; it describes rounds that occurred and were classified that way.
Carta’s Q1 2026 private-markets report therefore documents gains in some categories alongside weaker pricing in others. It covers Carta-platform companies and that quarter, not the global startup population or every private financing.
More money raised does not prove every valuation recovered
Fundraising totals reinforce the sense of renewed activity, but they answer a different question from valuation data. Carta reported nearly $120 billion raised by startups on its platform during 2025 and $30.4 billion in Q1 2026. Those amounts show capital flowing through the platform; they do not establish that each funded company, or the market as a whole, recovered its former valuation.
Deal breadth is another important check. Carta said its 2025 new-round count was the lowest in at least six years and 41% below the 2021 high. When fewer rounds are being completed, a large financing total or a rising median may reflect a smaller set of companies raising larger rounds rather than a recovery available to most founders.
Carta’s 2025 review provides the platform-level fundraising and round-count context. These figures should be read together: capital raised, number of rounds, and valuation medians describe different dimensions of the market.
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AI concentration makes headline numbers easy to misread
The broader U.S. industry picture also points to concentration. In its 2026 Yearbook, using PitchBook data through December 31, 2025, the National Venture Capital Association described roughly $220 billion invested in AI—dominated by a small number of very large rounds—against roughly $100 billion across other sectors. That split helps explain how venture totals can surge even while many companies outside the hottest categories struggle to raise.
AI’s share of capital and the gap between AI foundational-model and non-AI Series A medians are evidence of divergent market conditions, not proof that all AI companies command the same prices or that every non-AI sector is declining. A company’s stage, business model, financing terms, and investor demand all matter; the reported category medians do not determine an individual company’s value.
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The NVCA 2026 Yearbook gives a wider U.S. industry view than Carta’s platform data, but it still does not describe the global private market.
Private valuations and investor liquidity are different stories
A private-round valuation is a negotiated price used to structure a financing. It may be a useful mark, but it is not cash in a founder’s or investor’s account. Realizing value generally requires a sale of shares, an acquisition, or a public listing—and those outcomes can fall short of the last private mark.
NVCA and PitchBook reported that U.S. venture-backed exits totaled $217.1 billion across 1,463 deals in 2025, more than double the prior year but still below peak levels and not enough to resolve the backlog of private companies waiting for liquidity. Their yearbook also reported a record median IPO pre-money valuation of $1.05 billion in 2025, while 67% of unicorn IPOs were priced below their last private valuation. An IPO’s pre-money valuation is not comparable to a seed or Series A post-money median; the figures show that a large public-market valuation and a discount to a company’s private mark can coexist.
The Q3 2025 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor offered an earlier sign of the gap: at least five venture-backed IPOs in 2025 were trading below their last private valuations, and it described liquidity as challenging. Trading prices after an IPO, IPO pricing, and private financing marks are distinct measures, but together they caution against treating rising private marks as proof that investors can exit at those prices.
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NVCA President and CEO Bobby Franklin summarized the tension in the yearbook release: “Taken together, the 2025 data signals an industry at an inflection point—strong investment on one hand, constrained liquidity on the other, with a recovery in exits critical to restoring balance.”
Sources: NVCA’s 2026 Yearbook release and the Q3 2025 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What investors and founders should take from the numbers
For investors, a record median at one stage is not a substitute for assessing the specific company, round terms, dilution, and prospects for a future exit. A higher post-money valuation can mean a smaller ownership share for the same investment, while a later down round can dilute earlier holders or trigger protections depending on the financing documents.
For founders, headline valuations are most useful as context for comparable companies at a similar stage and in a similar sector—not as a target or a promise. The distinction between a financing mark and realized proceeds is especially important when evaluating a term sheet, planning for dilution, or deciding whether a secondary sale or acquisition offers meaningful liquidity.
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