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The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) projects U.S. net farm income of $158.4 billion in 2026, down $4.3 billion (2.6%) from 2025 in nominal dollars. After adjusting for inflation, the projected decline is $9.1 billion, or 5.5%. But the forecast is not a simple crop-market slump: ERS expects total crop receipts to rise while animal and animal-product receipts fall and production expenses increase.
What is the USDA farm income forecast for 2026?
In its September 3, 2026 update, USDA ERS projected national net farm income at $158.4 billion for 2026. That is a forecast, not a final year-end result. The comparison with 2025 changes depending on whether dollars are adjusted for inflation:
- Nominal net farm income: projected to fall $4.3 billion, or 2.6%, from 2025.
- Inflation-adjusted net farm income: projected to fall $9.1 billion, or 5.5%, from 2025.
ERS also projects net cash farm income of $176.4 billion. That measure is forecast to rise $0.7 billion (0.4%) in nominal terms but decline $4.6 billion (2.5%) after inflation adjustment. ERS says both measures would remain above their 2006–25 averages in inflation-adjusted dollars if the forecasts are realized. USDA ERS Farm Sector Income Forecast; Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast.
Why is farm income falling if crop receipts are rising?
Farm income reflects more than crop sales. ERS projects crop receipts to increase, but projects a larger decline in animal and animal-product receipts, higher production expenses, and a rise in direct government payments that offsets some—not all—of the pressure.
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| 2026 forecast measure | Projected value | Change from 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Crop receipts | $253.0 billion | Up $14.6 billion (6.1%), nominal |
| Animal and animal-product receipts | $287.3 billion | Down $16.4 billion (5.4%), nominal |
| Production expenses | $492.8 billion | Up $21.2 billion (4.5%), nominal |
| Direct government farm payments | $47.4 billion | Up $19.5 billion |
ERS identifies corn, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables and melons as contributors to higher crop receipts. Lower chicken egg receipts are among the factors behind the decline in animal and animal-product receipts. Expense increases are led by livestock and poultry purchases, fertilizer, lime and soil conditioners, and fuel and oils. The direct-payment figure excludes USDA loans and insurance indemnity payments; it should not be read as a total of all government support. These are ERS national-sector forecasts, not the result for every commodity or farm. USDA ERS Farm Sector Income Forecast.
What is the difference between net farm income and net cash farm income?
Net farm income is the broader measure of farm-sector profit. It includes noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income of operator dwellings. Net cash farm income compares cash receipts and cash farm-related income—including federal government payments—with cash expenses; it does not include those noncash components.
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Because the measures account for different items and timing, they can move in different directions. That is why ERS can project nominal net farm income to fall in 2026 while nominal net cash farm income edges up. The figures answer related but distinct questions: the broader sector’s income after accounting for noncash elements, versus cash income less cash expenses. USDA ERS Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast; Farm Income and Wealth Statistics: FAQs.
Which farm types are expected to see higher income?
The national forecast does not describe every operation. ERS forecasts average net cash farm income for farm businesses to increase in six of nine Farm Resource Regions. By specialization, crop farm businesses are generally forecast to gain, with specialty-crop businesses as the exception; all animal and animal-product specializations are forecast to have lower average net farm income.
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These are averages for groups of farm businesses, not predictions for an individual farm. A specific operation’s result can differ with its location, product mix, production, prices, expenses, and other circumstances. USDA ERS Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could change the forecast?
The September 3 forecast used crop and animal production and price forecasts from the August 12, 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. ERS identifies WASDE price assumptions for wheat, corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rice, soybeans, and upland cotton. Prices, production estimates, and stocks can change as growing conditions, markets, and decisions evolve, so the forecast may be revised.
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ERS sector estimates draw on Agricultural Resource Management Survey responses and information from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, Farm Service Agency, Risk Management Agency, and other sector-level sources. USDA ERS Farm Income and Wealth Statistics: FAQs; Farm Sector Income & Finances.
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