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USDA WASDE Report: January 12, 2023 (WASDE-632)

USDA’s January 12, 2023 WASDE lowered projected U.S. corn and soybean production and exports, cut rice exports, and gave a mixed U.S. wheat outlook for 2022/23.
From TheFinanceBase Team4 min to read
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The USDA’s January 12, 2023 WASDE projected lower U.S. corn and soybean production and exports, sharply reduced U.S. rice exports, and a mixed wheat outlook. These were USDA forecasts for the 2022/23 marketing year as of that release—not current market data or final season results.

What the January 2023 WASDE covered

WASDE-632 was approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board on January 12, 2023. The monthly report presents supply-and-use estimates for the current and upcoming marketing years. Its coverage includes U.S. and world wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, and cotton; U.S. sugar, meat, poultry, eggs, and milk; and Mexico’s sugar balance. The board chairs interagency commodity estimates committees that compile and interpret information from USDA and other domestic and foreign sources. USDA’s WASDE series page describes the report and its coverage.

The report’s tables place December and January projections side by side for 2022/23, making the month-to-month revisions visible. Units vary: U.S. corn and soybean balances are reported in bushels, U.S. rice in hundredweight (cwt), and many world balances in metric tons. Values below retain the report’s units.

What changed in the U.S. crop outlook?

The selected figures below cover the report’s main U.S. corn, soybean, rice, and wheat revisions; they are not a summary of every crop or livestock table in WASDE-632. Unless otherwise noted, the figures refer to USDA’s January 2023 projection for the 2022/23 marketing year.

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Commodity January 2023 projection Change from December
U.S. corn production 13.730 billion bushels Down 200 million bushels
U.S. corn total use 13.915 billion bushels Down 185 million bushels
U.S. corn exports 1.925 billion bushels Down 150 million bushels
U.S. soybean production 4.276 billion bushels Down 69 million bushels
U.S. soybean yield 49.5 bushels per acre Down 0.6 bushel per acre
U.S. soybean exports 2.0 billion bushels Down 55 million bushels
U.S. soybean ending stocks 210 million bushels Down 10 million bushels
U.S. rice production 160.4 million cwt Change not stated in the summary
U.S. rice exports 66.0 million cwt Down 3.0 million cwt
U.S. all-rice ending stocks 32.1 million cwt Down 6.0 million cwt
U.S. wheat Supplies and domestic use increased; exports unchanged; ending stocks slightly lower; season-average farm price $9.10 per bushel Mixed revisions; the summary gives no numerical change for ending stocks

All figures and revisions in this table are from the USDA January 2023 WASDE-632 report. The farm-price figure is USDA’s season-average price projection for 2022/23, not a current wheat price.

Why USDA revised corn, soybeans, and rice

Corn: smaller harvested area and slower exports

USDA lowered its corn production estimate by 200 million bushels. A 1.6 million-acre reduction in harvested area more than offset an increase in estimated yield. Total use fell by 185 million bushels to 13.915 billion. Within that balance, exports were reduced by 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion; USDA cited slow shipments through December and outstanding sales for early January at their lowest level for that point in the season since 2019/20.

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The report summarized the overall revision this way: “This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production, food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), feed and residual use, exports, and ending stocks.” That is a description of USDA’s January forecast changes, not a statement of final 2022/23 outcomes.

Soybeans: lower production and exports

USDA cut projected soybean production by 69 million bushels to 4.276 billion and lowered yield to 49.5 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushel. The export projection fell by 55 million bushels to 2.0 billion. Despite the lower production estimate, projected ending stocks also declined, by 10 million bushels, to 210 million.

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Rice: export competition in Western Hemisphere markets

USDA projected U.S. rice production of 160.4 million cwt and lowered exports by 3.0 million cwt to 66.0 million. The report said that was the lowest export projection since 1985/86, citing increased South American competition in core Western Hemisphere markets as a reason for lower long-grain exports. Projected all-rice ending stocks fell by 6.0 million cwt to 32.1 million.

What the report said about wheat and global balances

For U.S. wheat, the January outlook showed increased supplies and domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly lower ending stocks. USDA kept its 2022/23 season-average farm price projection at $9.10 per bushel.

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Globally, USDA raised projected wheat supplies, exports, consumption, and ending stocks. World wheat ending stocks were projected at 268.4 million metric tons. These world figures are separate from the U.S. balance and should not be compared directly with U.S. bushel or cwt figures.

For more detail on the wheat revisions, USDA’s Economic Research Service published Wheat Outlook: January 2023 on January 17, 2023. It discusses the January 12 WASDE changes to U.S. and world wheat balances for 2021/22 and 2022/23 and includes an article on changes in Ukraine’s wheat and corn export patterns since Russia’s invasion.

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How to interpret a January WASDE projection

A WASDE estimate is a forecast, not an observed final result. USDA’s report includes historical reliability tables to show how projections have differed from later estimates. For example, its historical January forecasts of world coarse-grain ending stocks had a 90-percent confidence interval extending 18.3 million metric tons around the forecast, based on the report’s historical record. That interval describes past forecast errors; it is not a guarantee or a range for any single year.

WASDE-632 establishes what USDA projected and why it made the revisions in January 2023. It does not establish the eventual 2022/23 results, the immediate futures-market response, private analyst consensus, or effects on farm income. Those questions require later USDA estimates or separate market records. USDA’s report states that “The World Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.”

Finding the original January 12, 2023 report

The source of record is the USDA WASDE-632 PDF. Look for the 2022/23 columns and compare January estimates with December where both are shown. Keep the commodity, geography, marketing year, and unit attached to each number when using the figures; a bushel, a hundredweight, and a metric ton are not interchangeable.

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