The 180.5 million bushels was an analyst forecast for U.S. soybean crushing in July 2022—not a confirmed USDA result. A Reuters survey of eight analysts put the average at 5.416 million short tons, equivalent to 180.5 million bushels in the contemporaneous report.
What the 180.5-million-bushel figure represents
ADM Investor Services reported the Reuters survey before USDA’s monthly release. The eight analysts’ estimates ranged from 179.0 million to 181.7 million bushels; the median, like the average, was 180.5 million. The phrase “seen at” in the headline means forecast or expected, not already measured.
The contemporaneous market report described the estimate as potentially the second-largest July crush on record, behind 184.5 million bushels in July 2020. That ranking and its comparison figures are as reported at the time, not independently verified USDA records here. ADM Investor Services report on the analyst estimate; ADM Investor Services report with historical comparisons.
How the forecast compared with other months
| Period or measure | Bushels | Context |
|---|---|---|
| July 2022 forecast | 180.5 million | Average and median of eight Reuters-surveyed analysts; reported by ADM Investor Services. |
| Analyst estimate range | 179.0–181.7 million | Reuters survey as reported by ADM Investor Services. |
| June 2022 | 174.1 million | Contemporaneous report described June as a nine-month low. |
| July 2021 | 166.3 million | Comparison figure in the contemporaneous report. |
| July 2020 | 184.5 million | Figure cited in that report as the comparison for a possible second-largest July. |
The comparison figures are attributed to the contemporaneous ADM Investor Services report; they should not be read as a substitute for the underlying USDA historical release. Estimate and range; Monthly and historical comparisons.
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What USDA’s monthly crush report measures
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service publishes Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks monthly. The publication is compiled from facility data and covers oilseed crushing, crude and once-refined oil production, rendering production, and end-of-month stocks for the previous calendar month. The archive lists releases in the series. USDA NASS report and archive.
Crushing soybeans extracts soybean meal and soybean oil. USDA’s Economic Research Service describes demand for both products as relevant industry context; its July 2025 explainer also discusses soybean oil use as a biomass-based diesel feedstock. That broader context does not establish what drove the July 2022 estimate. USDA ERS explanation of soybean crush and demand.
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When the July 2022 result was due
The contemporaneous article said USDA’s July report was scheduled for Thursday, September 1, 2022, at 2 p.m. Central Daylight Time (1900 GMT). This is the historical schedule reported at the time, not a current USDA release-time guarantee. ADM Investor Services report.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to interpret the forecast today
The available figures establish what analysts expected before the release, but they do not establish USDA’s realized July 2022 crush total. Accordingly, 180.5 million bushels should be cited as the Reuters-survey average reported by ADM Investor Services, not as the official USDA result.
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For a separate, later outlook, USDA ERS said in 2025 that U.S. soybean crush for marketing year 2025/26 was forecast to rise nearly 3% to a record 2.49 billion bushels, or 57% of U.S. soybean production. Those are marketing-year forecasts and do not describe July 2022 actual crush. USDA ERS 2025/26 forecast.
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