No official source reviewed supports a discovery of 18 million tons of lithium worth $540 billion under the Salton Sea. The headline appears to combine separate estimates: a USGS estimate of 5.1–19.0 million metric tons of lithium in place in southern Arkansas, and a distinct California assessment that lists Salton Sea-area resource categories of up to 3.4 million metric tons. Neither figure, by itself, establishes how much can be economically recovered or what it is worth.
Where did the 18-million-ton claim come from?
The closest match is the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2024 estimate for brines in the Smackover Formation of southern Arkansas. USGS estimated that the brines contain 5.1–19.0 million metric tons of lithium in place. The range reflects uncertainty in predicted lithium concentration and formation porosity. It is not an estimate for the Salton Sea: USGS explicitly says the estimate does not assess the technological or economic feasibility of extraction. USGS’s announcement describes the Arkansas finding.
That distinction matters. “In place” describes lithium estimated to be present in a geological formation; it does not mean that amount has been proven recoverable, can be produced at a profit, or is already being mined. Calling the Arkansas estimate a reserve would overstate what USGS concluded.
What has been estimated near the Salton Sea?
A separate U.S. Department of Energy fact sheet summarizes a November 2023 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory assessment of lithium resources in the Salton Sea region. It reports three different categories rather than one interchangeable reserve total:
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| Salton Sea-area category | Reported amount | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Proven | 760,000 metric tons | A distinct resource category in the assessment. |
| Accessible | 2.6 million metric tons | A separate category based on accessibility assumptions. |
| Probable | 3.4 million metric tons | A category associated with future technology advances. |
These figures come from the DOE fact sheet, Improved Quantification of Lithium Resources in the Salton Sea Region. The categories have different assumptions, so they should not be added together or treated as equivalent measures. The assessment does not substantiate an 18-million-ton Salton Sea reserve.
Where is the Salton Sea lithium, and how would it be extracted?
The lithium is not in the lake’s surface water. DOE says it is dissolved in geothermal reservoir brine distributed through bedrock about a mile below the surface. The geothermal brine is brought up as part of geothermal energy operations, and direct lithium extraction (DLE) is intended to separate lithium from that brine. DOE describes a process involving pretreatment, a lithium recovery circuit, and reinjection of the remaining brine. See the department’s Geothermal FAQs for its explanation of the location and process.
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DOE’s fact sheet says DLE uses 99% less water per ton than other lithium mining processes. That is DOE’s comparison; it should not be read as a universal measured result for every DLE project or site.
Is lithium already being produced there?
Not at the scale implied by the annual brine estimate. DOE reported that the Salton Sea Known Geothermal Resource Area had 400 MW of existing geothermal capacity as of 2023. It estimated that this capacity was producing 21,500 tons of lithium in brine per year, but said that lithium was not then being recovered. That is lithium contained in the brine, not annual output of lithium product. The estimate appears in the same DOE fact sheet.
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What is the status of the proposed ATLiS project?
On January 15, 2025, DOE’s Loan Programs Office announced a conditional commitment for up to $1.36 billion in financing for Project ATLiS, a proposed lithium facility in Imperial County, California. DOE said the project was expected to produce up to 20,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide annually. This is planned capacity, not verified production: DOE said technical, legal, environmental, and financial conditions had to be satisfied before definitive financing documents and funding. The announcement is available from the DOE Loan Programs Office.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Can the resource be valued at $540 billion?
The official USGS and DOE material cited here does not substantiate the headline’s $540 billion valuation or explain how it was calculated. A geological quantity cannot be turned into a meaningful project value just by multiplying a ton count by a price. A defensible valuation would need to specify the saleable product and price date, the share that can actually be recovered, processing and project costs, and the timing and scale of production. Those assumptions are not established by the cited resource estimates.
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How to compare the Arkansas and California estimates
| Question | Southern Arkansas | Salton Sea region |
|---|---|---|
| Geological setting | Smackover Formation brines. | Geothermal reservoir brines in the Salton Sea region. |
| What the headline number measures | USGS estimate of 5.1–19.0 million metric tons of lithium in place. | DOE summary of 760,000 proven, 2.6 million accessible, and 3.4 million probable metric tons, with distinct category assumptions. |
| What is established about recovery | USGS did not assess technological or economic extraction feasibility. | The categories include different access and future-technology assumptions; DOE’s brine-content estimate is not recovered product. |
| Development evidence cited here | A geological resource estimate. | Existing geothermal capacity and a proposed facility with conditional financing; the cited annual lithium-in-brine figure is not production. |
The numbers answer different questions. Arkansas has the larger headline range, but it is an in-place estimate without an extraction-feasibility assessment. The Salton Sea figures describe different resource categories, alongside a proposed project; none establishes that the full geological quantity can be produced or sold.
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