Trump’s pro-petroleum policies can make drilling easier, but they cannot make a well profitable if the expected price of oil does not cover its costs and deliver an attractive return. That is why producers may support some regulatory changes yet still hold back investment, favoring capital discipline and shareholder returns over rapid production growth.
Why policy encouragement does not automatically lead to more drilling
An oil company considers the likely price it will receive for production, the cost of developing and operating a project, and what else it could do with its capital. Faster permits or fewer regulatory constraints may improve a project’s prospects, but they do not guarantee favorable oil prices or remove costs such as labor, equipment and oilfield services.
In March 2025, Reuters described producers weighing lower prices and higher costs against calls from President Trump to drill more. Dan Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, said, “The industry is trying to catch its breath.” Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, said producers were beginning to hold back capital. The report portrayed a market and investment outlook at that time—not a permanent position shared by every company. Reuters, March 11, 2025
What the price and breakeven figures show—and what they don’t
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s January 2026 outlook forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at an average of $52 per barrel in 2026 and $50 in 2027. In the same outlook, EIA cited Dallas Fed survey responses indicating reported breakeven prices of $61 per barrel in the Midland Basin and $62 in the Delaware Basin. Those basin-specific survey figures are not a nationwide cost threshold or a measure of every company’s profitability. A particular well’s economics depend on its location, geology, costs and expected production.
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Comparing those figures can help explain why lower price expectations may discourage some drilling, but it is not a one-to-one test of whether a company or project will make money. Benchmarks, realized prices and project costs vary, and a producer’s investment decision also depends on the expected return relative to other uses of cash. EIA, January 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook
Why record output can coexist with a cautious outlook
EIA reported that U.S. crude production reached a record average of 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025. Its January 2026 forecast projected output would decline to 13.3 million barrels per day in 2027, saying lower prices weakened drilling incentives and slower drilling would outweigh recent productivity gains in parts of the Lower 48.
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These figures describe different things: the 2025 number is reported production, while the 2027 number is a forecast. A record level of current production does not mean companies expect every additional project to earn an acceptable return. Nor does the forecast establish that production immediately fell after policy changes. EIA, January 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook
Global market conditions also shape U.S. investment
Domestic policy is only one influence on the price outlook. In its June 2025 outlook, EIA expected global oil inventories to grow by 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, a forecast at that time rather than a current measurement. It said anticipated inventory growth would put downward pressure on prices. The same outlook forecast U.S. crude production averaging 13.4 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026; those estimates were later superseded by newer forecasts.
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Reuters’ March 2025 account also discussed refining margins and restructuring among oilfield-service companies. These are related pressures, but they are not the same as the economics facing an oil producer: refiners earn money by processing crude, while service firms sell equipment and services to producers. A policy that benefits one part of the oil business does not automatically make new drilling attractive to another. EIA, June 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook · Reuters, March 11, 2025
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What proposed faster-production measures can—and cannot—do
In April 2026, Reuters reported that the White House was discussing possible near-term production measures with oil companies and examining regulations that affect how quickly projects could proceed. The report described measures under consideration, not adopted policy. It also did not establish that any such changes would quickly increase output or make uneconomic projects profitable. Reuters, April 24, 2026
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The distinction matters: policy can change the time, uncertainty or cost involved in a project, but a producer still has to decide whether its expected returns justify committing capital. If prices, costs or shareholder priorities do not support expansion, an invitation to drill is not itself a business case.
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