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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11Senalia forecast in January 2023 that its Rouen grain terminal would load 4.6 million tonnes of cereals during the 2022/23 campaign, nearly 14% more than the 4.05 million tonnes it reported for 2021/22. That increase did not materialize: Senalia’s eventual 2022/23 exports were reported at 4.107 million tonnes, almost unchanged from the previous campaign.
What Senalia forecast in January 2023
Senalia, operator of France’s largest grain export terminal, was aiming to load 4.6 million tonnes of cereals in the campaign running from July 1, 2022, through June 30, 2023. The nearly 14% projected increase was measured against the 4.05 million tonnes the company said it loaded in 2021/22. Reuters reported the forecast on January 6, 2023. Reuters report republished by Agriculture.com / Successful Farming.
Senalia said it had already loaded 2.4 million tonnes between July and December 2022, 11% more than in the same months a year earlier. The projection reflected conditions and expectations at the time, not a final campaign tally.
Why the terminal expected higher volumes
Reuters attributed the expected increase to Chinese demand and disruption to Black Sea trade after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Senalia expected barley to support activity during the second half of the campaign; it had mostly shipped wheat in the first half. At the time of the report, a vessel had just loaded around 40,000 tonnes of barley in Rouen for China.
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The January report also described dredging problems in the Seine that reduced the maximum load for large Panamax vessels by around 10,000 tonnes. That operational constraint was part of the contemporaneous picture behind the forecast, not a statement about current river conditions.
What Senalia actually exported in 2022/23
A July 2023 trade report citing Senalia figures current to July 5 put the company’s completed 2022/23 grain exports at 4.107 million tonnes, compared with 4.125 million tonnes in 2021/22. The realized total was therefore nearly level year over year, rather than 14% higher. The reported 2022/23 product totals included 2.667 million tonnes of soft wheat and 876,000 tonnes of feed barley. Réussir’s July 2023 report citing Senalia figures.
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Why Rouen’s 8.5-million-tonne figure is different
HAROPA PORT reported 8.5 million tonnes of cereals exported through its wider port system in the 2022–2023 campaign, 10.4% above the preceding campaign. It said the port system handled 52% of all French cereal exports and described the result as Rouen’s third-best maritime export campaign since the early 1990s. These are port-wide figures, not Senalia terminal totals. HAROPA PORT’s July 27, 2023 release.
HAROPA PORT also reported that the Maghreb was the leading destination region for French cereals leaving Rouen, at 3.5 million tonnes. Within that port-wide figure, 1.9 million tonnes went to Morocco and 1.4 million tonnes to Algeria. These destination volumes should not be attributed to Senalia alone.
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How to read the figures
- Forecast versus result: 4.6 million tonnes and nearly 14% described Senalia’s January 2023 target; 4.107 million tonnes was its later reported campaign outcome.
- Terminal versus port system: Senalia’s 4.107 million tonnes covers the company’s exports; HAROPA PORT’s 8.5 million tonnes covers the broader port system.
- Campaign versus calendar year: The 2022/23 cereal campaign ran July 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023. The January and July publication dates indicate when the figures were reported, not separate campaign periods.
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