The latest UN forecast does not project 10.9 billion people by 2100. Its 2024 revision estimates a global population of about 8.2 billion in 2024, rising to around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before easing to about 10.2 billion by 2100. The often-cited 10.9 billion figure comes from an older UN projection.
What is the UN’s latest population projection?
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) Population Division projects that the world population will grow from about 8.2 billion in 2024 to around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, then gradually fall to around 10.2 billion by 2100. These are estimates and projections, not observed future counts. The figures are from the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024.
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The UN estimates an 80 percent likelihood that global population will peak within this century. Its likely timing spans from the mid-2060s to 2100, so the mid-2080s is the central projection, not a guaranteed peak date. The range and probability are described in the UN’s 2024 population projections.
Where does the 10.9 billion figure come from?
The 10.9 billion figure belongs to an earlier UN forecast. In its comparison of projections, the UN says its 2013 projection put the 2100 population at around 10.8–10.9 billion; the 2024 revision places it at around 10.2 billion. The new end-of-century forecast is about 700 million people, or 6 percent, lower than the projection made a decade earlier. These figures compare different projection revisions, not two estimates issued on the same assumptions. See the UN’s comparison of the 2013 and 2024 projections.
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| UN projection revision | Projected peak timing | Projected population at peak | Projected population in 2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | not stated in the UN’s 2024 comparison of these revisions | not stated in the UN’s 2024 comparison of these revisions | around 10.8–10.9 billion |
| 2024 | mid-2080s central projection; peak likely between the mid-2060s and 2100 | around 10.3 billion | around 10.2 billion |
The table’s 2013 and 2024 end-of-century values and the 700 million, 6 percent comparison are from the UN’s 2024 comparison; the peak range and likelihood are from the 2024 projection. The UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 is its 28th edition of official population estimates and projections, covering 237 countries or areas and providing global, regional and national projections.
Why did the forecast move lower?
The UN attributes the earlier anticipated peak chiefly to fertility outcomes that were lower than previously expected in recent years in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China, as well as somewhat faster-than-anticipated fertility declines in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Li Junhua said: “In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions.” The statement appeared in a UN DESA press release dated 11 July 2024.
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These are regional and country-level fertility changes identified by the report, not a claim that fertility alone determines every country’s population path. The 2024 revision draws on historical demographic trends and projects outcomes at global, regional and national levels.
How certain is a peak this century?
The UN’s 80 percent likelihood means a peak this century is considered probable, not certain. The projected date and population size depend on future demographic outcomes, and the UN’s projections encompass a range of plausible paths. Treat the mid-2080s peak and 10.3 billion figure as the central forecast in the 2024 revision—not as a promised date or guaranteed count. The UN sets out this uncertainty in World Population Prospects 2024.
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What the forecast means—and does not mean
A projected global peak does not mean population growth stops everywhere at the same time. The UN’s global trajectory aggregates different national and regional paths; its report supplies separate estimates and projections for 237 countries or areas. The headline global number therefore describes the combined outlook, not the demographic future of every place.
For readers comparing headlines, check the projection revision and the year the figure refers to. The 10.9 billion number describes the older 2013 projection for 2100; the UN’s 2024 central forecast is around 10.3 billion at a mid-2080s peak and around 10.2 billion in 2100.
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