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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchThe United Nations forecasts Pakistan’s economic output to grow 3.5% in calendar year 2026, according to its January 2026 World Economic Situation and Prospects report. That is a forecast, not a measured result. A later IMF report describes stronger industrial activity in Pakistan during the first half of its 2025–26 fiscal year, but its figures cover a different period and should not be treated as a revision of the UN’s calendar-year forecast.
What the UN’s 3.5% forecast means
UN DESA’s World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, published in January 2026, forecasts Pakistan’s economic output to grow 3.5% over calendar year 2026. The forecast series is based on UN DESA estimates and forecasts produced with the World Economic Forecasting Model. The figure describes expected annual growth; it is not a final tally of what Pakistan’s economy achieved.
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In the same UN table, Pakistan’s 2025 growth is listed as a 3.4% estimate, while average annual growth for 2010–2019 is 3.8%. The historical average is context, not a forecast for the years ahead.
Why the industrial surge is a separate update
A later IMF country report, published in May 2026, reports that Pakistan’s GDP grew 3.7% year on year in fiscal year 2025–26’s first quarter, driven by a strong expansion in the industrial sector. It says growth averaged 3.8% year on year in the first half of FY26, with auto, construction and garment industries among the drivers. These are reported growth rates for fiscal-year periods, not calendar-year forecasts.
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The IMF report also projects 3.6% growth for FY26. That projection comes from a different institution, was published later, and covers Pakistan’s fiscal year rather than the UN’s calendar year 2026 forecast. The two numbers therefore do not, by themselves, show that one institution has revised or disproved the other.
How the forecasts compare
| Figure | Institution and period | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5% | UN DESA, calendar year 2026 | Forecast for Pakistan’s economic output growth |
| 3.4% | UN DESA, calendar year 2025 | Estimate for Pakistan’s economic output growth |
| 3.8% | UN DESA, annual average for 2010–2019 | Historical average growth |
| 3.7% | IMF, FY26 Q1 year on year | Reported GDP growth, described as driven by industrial expansion |
| 3.8% | IMF, FY26 H1 average year on year | Reported average GDP growth for the first half of FY26 |
| 3.6% | IMF, FY26 | Growth projection in its May 2026 report |
Sources: UN DESA’s 2026 forecast table and the IMF’s May 2026 Pakistan country report.
Pakistan’s forecast in regional and global context
UN DESA forecasts South Asia’s economy to grow 5.6% in 2026, down from 5.9% in 2025, and says the regional outlook is led by India. Its table puts India’s 2026 growth forecast at 6.6%. The report’s publication page gives a global GDP growth forecast of 2.7% for 2026. These regional and global figures provide context, but they do not change the period or status of Pakistan’s 3.5% forecast.
UN DESA’s report and publication details are available on its official publication page.
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What could change the outlook
A forecast is conditional on the economic environment and available data, so it is not a guarantee. The IMF’s May 2026 report flags commodity-price and external risks. Those risks matter to the outlook, but the report does not make the UN’s calendar-year forecast a measured outcome.
When comparing future updates, check who published each figure, when it was published, whether it refers to a calendar or fiscal year, and whether it is an estimate, forecast or reported growth rate. Those labels are essential to understanding why figures can differ without being directly contradictory.
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