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Why was China buying more soybeans from Brazil than from the U.S.?
The shift reflected the timing of harvests, relative prices, and tariff treatment—not simply a permanent change in demand. In its 2026 China Oilseeds and Products Annual, USDA FAS said Brazil was beginning to harvest and market a record-breaking crop as South American prices were significantly below U.S. origin prices. USDA described the remaining 13 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans and the availability of South American supply as factors helping explain why reported U.S. purchases were being made by state-owned enterprises rather than private-sector companies. This is USDA’s analysis, not a complete, independently measured comparison of delivered costs.
- Seasonal availability: Brazil’s new crop was reaching export markets during the period when U.S. arrivals in China had fallen away.
- Price and tariffs: USDA reported lower South American prices relative to U.S. origin and identified the remaining U.S. tariff as part of the context.
- Freight and logistics: Ocean freight, port capacity, and shipment timing also affect delivered cost. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) publishes Brazilian soybean transport data, including selected-port freight rates to China, but its February 2026 report is not a current all-in Brazil-versus-U.S. price comparison. See the USDA AMS Brazil soybean transportation reports.
When does Brazil’s soybean harvest reach the market?
Brazil’s harvest and export supply arrive in a different seasonal window from the U.S. crop. The relevant point in this disruption is that Brazil was commencing harvest and marketing of its new crop as U.S. arrivals in China had reached zero for September through December 2025. USDA FAS characterized Brazil’s crop as record-breaking in its 2026 annual report. The alignment made South American supply available during a period when U.S. shipments were absent; it does not, by itself, quantify how much of China’s imports Brazil supplied.
How did tariffs affect U.S. soybean sales to China?
USDA FAS reports that U.S. soybean imports into China increased between December 2024 and March 2025 amid bilateral tensions and preemptive buying. After higher tariffs were imposed in April 2025, U.S. arrivals declined and reached zero from September through December 2025. For the full marketing year (MY) 2024/25, China imported 22.9 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, 8 percent less than the previous year, according to USDA FAS. These are marketing-year import figures and the report’s account of arrivals; they should not be confused with individual export-sale announcements or calendar-year commitments. Read USDA FAS’s 2026 China Oilseeds and Products Annual.
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Has China resumed buying U.S. soybeans?
Yes. USDA FAS says China resumed procurement after the October 2025 presidential meeting in Busan. As of February 26, 2026, USDA export-sales data showed 10.8 million metric tons purchased or shipped against a 12 million metric ton commitment. The report also listed 2.19 million metric tons sold to unknown destinations, but said it could not confirm those sales were bound for China; they should not be added to China’s confirmed total.
A later USDA FAS notice recorded a private-exporter sale of 120,000 metric tons to China for MY 2026/27 on September 24, 2026. A separate notice on October 5 recorded 104,000 metric tons for unknown destinations, not confirmed China-bound. These notices report particular sales, not total China purchases or customs arrivals. USDA’s export sales reporting page provides the announcements.
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How much did China buy from the U.S. in 2025 and 2026?
The answer depends on the date range and measure. USDA FAS’s 22.9 million metric tons is China’s U.S.-origin imports for MY 2024/25. The 10.8 million metric tons is the amount purchased or shipped against a commitment as of February 26, 2026. The 120,000 metric tons is a single sale announced September 24, 2026 for MY 2026/27. These numbers describe different periods and reporting measures, so they cannot be added together or treated as interchangeable totals.
| Figure | What it measures | Period or as-of date |
|---|---|---|
| 22.9 million metric tons; down 8% year over year | U.S. soybean imports into China, as reported by USDA FAS | MY 2024/25 |
| 10.8 million metric tons against a 12 million metric ton commitment | China purchases or shipments shown in USDA export-sales data | As of February 26, 2026 |
| 120,000 metric tons | One private-exporter sale to China for MY 2026/27 | Announced September 24, 2026 |
| 104,000 metric tons | One sale for unknown destinations; China destination not confirmed | Announced October 5, 2026 |
For U.S. export statistics, USDA FAS’s Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) provides country- and commodity-level data; USDA ERS says its agricultural trade tables are updated monthly and directs users to GATS. USDA noted that August 2026 U.S. trade data were released on October 6, 2026. Those U.S. trade statistics do not substitute for a current China customs series broken down by supplier origin, so the available figures do not establish whether the 2025 pattern continued unchanged throughout 2026.
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