USDA’s March 2026 survey found farmers intended to plant 95.3 million acres of corn and 84.7 million acres of soybeans. Its June report later estimated that 95.3 million acres of corn and 85.4 million acres of soybeans were planted. Before the March report, analysts cited rising fertilizer and fuel costs alongside low grain prices as reasons some farmers might shift acreage toward soybeans; those explanations are not proof that the Iran war alone caused the final planting decisions.
What analysts expected before the March report
In a March 27, 2026 report, Reuters described analysts’ expectations that U.S. corn acreage would fall and soybean acreage would rise as the Iran war added pressure to fertilizer and fuel costs. The account also cited low grain prices as a factor weighing on corn returns. These were analysts’ explanations and forecasts ahead of USDA’s intentions report, not USDA findings about farmers’ motives or a measurement of the war’s effect. Reuters report republished by Investing.com, March 27, 2026.
What USDA estimated in March and June
The two USDA figures describe different stages in the planting cycle. The March Prospective Plantings report was the first official, survey-based estimate of farmers’ intentions. The June Acreage report collected information on what farmers had planted, providing a later estimate. The March and June numbers are therefore not contradictory.
| Crop | March 2026 planting intentions | June 2026 planted acreage estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 95.3 million acres; down 3% from 2025 | 95.3 million acres; down 3% from 2025 |
| Soybeans | 84.7 million acres; up 4% from 2025 | 85.4 million acres; up 5% from 2025 |
USDA’s June soybean estimate was 0.7 million acres higher than its March intentions estimate. The corn estimate was unchanged between the two reports. USDA NASS, March 31, 2026; USDA NASS, June 30, 2026.
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How higher costs may affect crop choices
Fertilizer and fuel costs matter to farmers’ expected crop returns, while the prices they expect to receive for grain also shape those calculations. Analysts cited higher input costs and low grain prices when anticipating that some acres could move from corn to soybeans. That is an explanation of the pre-report outlook, not a quantified account of what each farmer paid or why each field was planted to a particular crop.
The USDA acreage reports establish estimated intentions and planted area; they do not isolate the influence of any one cost or event. The reviewed reporting does not determine how many acres, if any, shifted specifically because of the Iran war rather than other prices, crop rotations, inputs already purchased, or individual farm decisions.
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