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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →From 2003 to 2023, the number of licensed U.S. dairy herds fell 63%, from 70,375 to 26,290, while total milk production rose 33%, from 170.3 billion to 226.4 billion pounds. The headline’s “two of every three” is a close shorthand, not an exact count of every U.S. dairy farm: the figures refer specifically to licensed herds. USDA data point to two related changes behind the production trend—larger average farm scale and more milk per cow.
What the headline measures—and what it does not
The clearest paired long-run comparison is USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) data for 2003 and 2023. It counts licensed dairy herds, meaning herds licensed to sell milk, and compares those counts with total U.S. milk production. ERS reports 70,375 licensed herds in 2003 and 26,290 in 2023, a decline of 63%; production increased from 170.3 billion to 226.4 billion pounds, a rise of 33%.
Those figures support the broad claim that the industry produces substantially more milk with far fewer licensed herds. They do not mean that exactly two-thirds of every kind of dairy farm disappeared. Licensing data may exclude farms with milk cows that are not licensed, and “herd,” “farm,” and “operation” counts are not interchangeable.
The “two-thirds” figure is exact only for a different, narrower comparison: commercial farms with 10–199 cows declined from 86,912 in 1997 to 30,373 in 2017, roughly two-thirds. That is a herd-size category, not the count of all dairy farms. (USDA ERS, Scale Economies Provide Advantages to Large Dairy Farms, 2020.)
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How the industry’s different measures compare
| Measure | Earlier figure | Later figure | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Licensed dairy herds and total U.S. milk production | 2003: 70,375 herds; 170.3 billion pounds | 2023: 26,290 herds; 226.4 billion pounds | Licensed herds fell 63% while production rose 33%. USDA ERS, 2024. |
| U.S. milk production and output per cow | 2004 baseline | 2024 | Production rose 32% and output per cow rose 28%. USDA ERS, 2026. |
| Farms with milk sales from cows (Census of Agriculture) | 2017: 40,336 farms | 2022: 24,470 farms | Census farm count fell 39%; this is a distinct series from licensed herds. USDA NASS, 2024. |
| Share of U.S. milk cows on farms with at least 1,000 cows | 1997: 17.5% | 2017: 55.2% | A much larger share of cows was on the largest farms. USDA ERS, 2020. |
| Share of milk cows on operations with at least 2,500 cows | 2017: 35% | 2022: 45% | The largest-operation category expanded its share. USDA NASS, 2024. |
The periods and definitions in this table answer different questions; they should not be stitched into a single uninterrupted farm-count trend. For example, the 2003–2023 series counts licensed herds, while the 2017–2022 series counts Census farms reporting milk sales from cows.
Why milk production rose while herd numbers fell
More milk per cow
Higher yield means total output can rise without an equivalent increase in the number of cows or farms. From 2004 to 2024, U.S. milk production rose 32% and milk output per cow rose 28%, according to USDA ERS. These figures show that productivity contributed to the production increase; they do not establish it as the only cause.
Larger farms and more production per operation
Production also became concentrated on larger farms. USDA ERS says most of the increase in production per farm is attributable to increasing farm size. Its size-distribution figures show the shift in where cows were kept: farms with at least 1,000 cows held 17.5% of U.S. milk cows in 1997 and 55.2% in 2017.
ERS describes larger farms as having lower costs per unit of milk on average, an advantage that can support expansion. That is an average, not a rule that every large farm is low-cost or every small farm is unprofitable; ERS notes that some farms at every size have covered costs.
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Technology and management changes
ERS records wider use of several practices between 2000 and 2021. The percentages below are shares of milk sales from farms using each practice—not shares of all farms that adopted it.
| Practice | 2000 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Computerized milking systems | 20% of milk sales | 45% of milk sales |
| Milking cows three or more times daily | 19% of milk sales | 50% of milk sales |
| Computerized feed delivery systems | 22% of milk sales | 52% of milk sales |
| Milking parlors | 70% of milk sales | 88% of milk sales |
| Advanced breeding technologies | 76% of milk sales | 96% of milk sales |
These changes document a shift in production practices alongside consolidation and rising yields. They do not show that technology alone caused farms to close.
Markets that can favor scale
ERS has also identified a shift in demand away from fluid milk and toward products such as cheese, yogurt, and dry milk powder, which can be shipped farther. That can favor larger farms located farther from population centers, but it is one structural factor, not a complete explanation of consolidation.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the dates and definitions matter
USDA’s figures are not contradictory simply because their counts differ. They use different collection systems and definitions:
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- Licensed-herd counts cover herds licensed to sell milk and are based on information from state and other regulatory agencies. Farms with milk cows that lack a license may not be included.
- Census of Agriculture farm counts count farms reporting milk sales from cows. The 2022 Census recorded 24,470 such farms, compared with 40,336 in 2017.
- Herd-size categories count farms within a specified range or above a threshold. The 1997–2017 two-thirds decline applies to commercial farms with 10–199 cows, not to every dairy operation.
- Production and yield are different measures: total output can change with yield per cow, cow numbers, or both. Neither a farm count nor a yield figure alone explains all of the change in total production.
For current-year figures, USDA ERS’s Dairy Data portal compiles data from primary federal and nonfederal sources and lists update schedules. Because releases can update the latest years, a current figure should be checked against the relevant release date rather than treated as timeless.
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