The Tool Desk
Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →U.S. farm earnings fell sharply from their exceptional 2022 peak, but the headline figures depend on when USDA published them and which income measure it used. In its November 30, 2023 forecast, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projected inflation-adjusted net farm income of $151.1 billion for 2023, down $37.9 billion (20.0%) from 2022. It projected inflation-adjusted net cash farm income of $157.9 billion, down $49.2 billion (23.8%). Those were forecasts, not final estimates.
What drove the projected decline in 2023 farm earnings?
The November 2023 forecast pointed chiefly to lower cash receipts from farm commodities. ERS projected those receipts would fall $43.0 billion (7.8%) to $509.6 billion. The outlook included expected declines in receipts from corn, milk and broilers. Lower commodity prices were an important reason receipts were expected to fall, although receipts also depend on quantities sold and the timing of sales.
Receipts are not the same as production. Calendar-year crop receipts can include sales from more than one harvest, so a decline in a year’s receipts does not by itself tell how much was produced in that year. ERS’s November outlook describes expected cash receipts, not a direct measure of crop output. USDA ERS’s farm income and wealth statistics provides the underlying income series.
How farm production expenses changed in USDA’s forecasts
The title’s reference to higher costs needs context: USDA’s forecasts changed over the year, and the November outlook did not project a broad rise in total expenses. In February 2023, ERS forecast total production expenses would increase by about $18 billion, or 4%, and its webinar transcript attributed the primary cash-receipt decline to lower prices received by farmers. By November, ERS projected total production expenses would rise only $0.6 billion (0.1%) to $443.4 billion.
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- HEAVY DUTY STEEL BUILD: Q235 carbon steel body with galvanized matte gray coating gives this 2.2 bushel hog feeder solid strength for daily use in pens and pastures
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| Forecast vintage | Projected total production expenses | What the forecast said |
|---|---|---|
| February 2023 | Increase of about $18 billion, or 4% | ERS’s earlier forecast; these were projected expenses, not a final estimate. |
| November 30, 2023 | Increase of $0.6 billion (0.1%) to $443.4 billion | Interest expense was expected to increase, while fertilizer, lime and soil conditioner and feed spending were expected to decrease. |
These figures show why “higher costs” should not be read as every farm expense rising. In the November forecast, expected increases and decreases among expense categories nearly offset one another. Expenses still mattered because they are deducted in calculating farm income while receipts were projected to fall.
Net farm income versus net cash farm income
USDA reports two related but distinct measures. Net cash farm income is gross cash income minus cash expenses. Net farm income is broader: it also incorporates noncash items such as inventory changes, depreciation and imputed rental income. ERS describes net farm income as “a broader measure of farm sector profitability” that includes those items.
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- HEAVY DUTY STEEL BUILD: Q235 carbon steel body with galvanized matte gray coating gives this 4 bushel hog feeder solid strength for daily use in pens and pastures
- RAIN-SHIELD TOP LID: The top-fill lid keeps grain dry in rain and wet weather, so stored feed stays fresh and spoilage waste is cut between daily refills
- EASY TOP-FILL ACCESS: Pour fresh feed through the wide top opening without bending over or unlatching the feeding door, saving time during every refill
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- SPACE-SAVING FARM DESIGN: Upright footprint of 32.9 x 19.7 x 24.0 in (83.5 x 50 x 61 cm) fits corner pens while matte gray finish blends into outdoor farm settings
That distinction helps explain why the November forecast showed different declines for the two measures. In inflation-adjusted dollars, forecast net farm income fell 20.0% from 2022, while forecast net cash farm income fell 23.8%. Both had reached record highs in 2022 in that forecast vintage. These are national farm-sector figures, not a description of every individual farm; results vary by operation, commodity mix, costs and location.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why later USDA estimates differ from the 2023 forecast
USDA ERS released its first calendar-year 2023 national and state income estimates on September 5, 2024, drawing on newer NASS receipts data and preliminary 2023 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) expense data. The figures were estimates rather than the November 2023 forecast, and USDA revised them in later updates. In February 2025, combined revisions to receipts, inventory adjustments and expenses raised the estimate of 2023 net farm income by $0.6 billion (0.4%) relative to the preceding estimate.
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For comparisons, check the measure, whether dollars are inflation-adjusted, the publication date and whether a figure is a forecast or a later estimate. ERS’s data archive lists yearly releases and archived forecasts, while its updates and corrections history tracks revisions.
Quick Recap
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Rank #4
- Efficient Grain Flow: This grain bin outlet is designed to support smooth and fast dispensing, helping improve handling speed for large rice buckets, farm grain storage container setups, and warehouse distribution areas while reducing residue buildup
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- Product Details: Includes 1 grain storage bin outlet in a compact size of 6.69 x 5.11 x 3.34 in and a weight of 165.00 g, offering a practical grain bin outlet option for farms, warehouses, and household grain outlet setups
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
