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AAPL Q3 2024 Earnings: What Analysts Expected and What Apple Reported

Apple reported $85.8 billion in fiscal Q3 2024 revenue and $1.40 diluted EPS. Here is how the results compared with two differently sourced analyst estimates.
From TheFinanceBase Team3 min to read
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The “today” in this headline referred to August 1, 2024, when Apple released results for its fiscal third quarter, which ended June 29. In the preview published that day, 9to5Mac reported a roundup estimate of $76.66 billion in revenue and $1.24 in diluted earnings per share (EPS). Apple ultimately reported $85.8 billion in revenue and $1.40 in diluted EPS. Those numbers suggest a beat against that roundup, but contemporaneous previews cited materially different revenue estimates, so the forecast source matters.

What analysts expected in the 9to5Mac preview

9to5Mac’s August 1, 2024 preview described Wall Street expectations as modest year-over-year growth and reported a 2.3% sales-growth expectation. Its roundup listed an average revenue estimate of $76.66 billion, within a stated range of $76.66 billion to $82.12 billion, and EPS of $1.24 versus $1.18 a year earlier. These are the estimates as reported by that roundup, not a single universal analyst consensus. Read the 9to5Mac preview.

How Apple’s actual results compared

Apple reported fiscal Q3 revenue of $85.8 billion, up 5% year over year, and diluted EPS of $1.40, up 11%. Its SEC filing gives total net sales as $85.777 billion. Against the figures in the 9to5Mac roundup, revenue was higher by about $9.1 billion and EPS by $0.16; this is a comparison with that publication’s estimates, not a claim that every analyst forecast was lower. Apple CEO Tim Cook described the result as a June-quarter revenue record. Apple’s results release and Apple’s Form 10-Q provide the reported figures.

Measure 9to5Mac preview roundup Apple fiscal Q3 2024 result
Revenue $76.66 billion average; stated range $76.66 billion–$82.12 billion $85.8 billion; SEC filing reports $85.777 billion
Diluted EPS $1.24; $1.18 a year earlier $1.40, up 11% year over year
Year-over-year revenue growth 2.3% expected, as reported by 9to5Mac 5%

Why published revenue estimates differed

A separate MacRumors preview cited a Yahoo Finance average revenue estimate of $84.5 billion, about 3% above the $81.8 billion reported for the year-ago quarter. That figure is substantially higher than the $76.66 billion average in the 9to5Mac roundup. The two previews identify different estimate sources; the available figures do not establish a basis for reconciling them into one consensus. Read the MacRumors preview.

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Apple’s own outlook is a separate category from analysts’ forecasts. On its May earnings call, Apple said it expected June-quarter total company revenue to grow by a low-single-digit percentage year over year, despite an approximately 2.5-percentage-point foreign-exchange headwind, as quoted by MacRumors. The same call included more specific guidance reported by 9to5Mac: Services and iPad revenue were expected to grow at double-digit rates; gross margin was forecast at 45.5%–46.5%; operating expenses at $14.3 billion–$14.5 billion; other income and expenses around $50 million, excluding possible mark-to-market effects from minority investments; and a tax rate around 16%. These were company outlook figures, not analyst estimates. 9to5Mac’s preview and MacRumors’ preview report the respective outlook statements.

Which Apple businesses grew—and which fell

The headline increase in total sales concealed sharply different performances across Apple’s product and service lines. The category figures below are Apple’s reported net sales for fiscal Q3 2024; year-over-year changes are rounded as presented in the filing.

Business Net sales Year-over-year change
iPhone $39.296 billion Down 1%
Mac $7.009 billion Up 2%
iPad $7.162 billion Up 24%
Wearables, Home and Accessories $8.097 billion Down 2%
Services $24.213 billion Up 14%

Services’ growth was primarily associated with advertising, the App Store and cloud services. Apple said Greater China sales declined primarily because of lower iPhone sales. The filing offers the detailed category and geographic results. Apple’s Form 10-Q.

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What the result says about the quarter

On the 9to5Mac roundup’s numbers, Apple exceeded both the reported revenue average and EPS forecast. The higher Yahoo Finance average cited by MacRumors makes the revenue comparison less straightforward: Apple’s $85.8 billion result was also above that estimate, but by a much smaller margin. Across the business, Services and iPad were the strongest growth contributors among the listed categories, while iPhone and Wearables, Home and Accessories were slightly lower year over year.

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Apple CFO Luca Maestri said the quarter generated nearly $29 billion in operating cash flow and that Apple returned more than $32 billion to shareholders. Those are Apple’s characterizations in its results release, alongside the reported revenue and EPS growth. Apple’s results release.

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