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Brazil faced greater near-term fertilizer procurement risk than the United States in the April 2026 comparison—not because the U.S. was insulated, but because Brazil relied more heavily on imported nutrients and its soybean buying window was underway. A later market update, published September 18, showed mixed price and trade effects rather than a simple, across-the-board shortage. Neither source establishes current October prices, inventories, or yield losses.
Why Brazil’s near-term exposure was greater
The clearest difference is the supply mix. Purdue’s April 20, 2026 comparison reports that imports supplied 88% of Brazil’s total fertilizer consumption in 2025. For the United States, domestic fertilizer producers supplied nearly 60% of demand for primary nitrogen, phosphate, and potash nutrients that year. These figures use different denominators—Brazil’s imported share of total fertilizer consumption versus the U.S. domestic share of primary macronutrient demand—so they show the contrast in broad terms, not a like-for-like ratio. Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture, April 20, 2026.
The University of Illinois farmdoc analysis offers a separate historical measure: citing Pereira and Cardoso (2025), it says imports met about 90% of Brazil’s NPK consumption over 2020–2023 and about 99% in 2023. Those figures cover a different period and measure from Purdue’s 2025 total-consumption estimate; they should not be combined into one timeless import-dependence rate. University of Illinois farmdoc daily, April 10, 2026.
Import dependence does not mean every Brazilian fertilizer cargo was exposed to the same route or directly blocked by the Strait of Hormuz. It does mean that a disruption affecting global production, shipping, or input costs can be harder to absorb when domestic supply fills less of the need. The distinction is relative risk: the U.S. had more domestic production capacity, but remained exposed to international supply and price movements.
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Which nutrients are most exposed?
Nitrogen and urea
Brazil’s nitrogen reliance is particularly pronounced. Purdue reports that imports supplied 95% of the nitrogen used in Brazilian crop production in 2025, and says urea—the country’s principal nitrogen fertilizer—is almost entirely imported. The farmdoc analysis identifies Russia and China as Brazil’s main urea sources. This sourcing information does not establish that all those supplies traveled through Hormuz; the exposure also comes from global market disruption and competing demand.
The U.S. has greater domestic nitrogen capacity, which lowers its direct shortage exposure relative to Brazil, according to farmdoc. Domestic production does not prevent prices from responding to global market conditions.
Phosphate and sulfur
Purdue puts Brazil’s phosphate import dependence at 72% in 2025. Farmdoc names Morocco and Russia as major sources in its account. Brazil has made some domestic phosphate investment, but Purdue’s figure indicates that imports still supplied most of its phosphate needs that year.
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The U.S. picture depends on which phosphate product is being counted. Farmdoc reports that the country’s phosphate-rock import reliance was 13% in 2024, with nearly all of those rock imports coming from Peru. It separately says about one-third of finished phosphate products were imported, and half of those imports came from Saudi Arabia. Rock and finished products are different categories, so the figures should not be treated as contradictory measures of the same supply.
Sulfur adds another link in the chain: it is a key feedstock for phosphate fertilizer production. The September market update describes reduced sulfur exports from the Gulf as well as disruptions and restrictions affecting other suppliers. That makes phosphate supply vulnerable not only to fertilizer cargoes transiting the Strait, but also to an upstream input constraint affecting production elsewhere.
Potash
Potash is highly import-dependent in both countries. Purdue reports that imports met 96% of Brazil’s potash needs in 2025, with supply origins including Canada, Russia, and Belarus. It reports that the U.S. imported 95% of its potash requirements in 2025; Canada supplied 79% of U.S. potash used during 2021–2024. The U.S. therefore has a major import dependency, but its leading source is geographically distinct from the Gulf disruption. These origin figures do not establish that all imports were affected in the same way.
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How supply exposure compares
| Dimension | Brazil | United States |
|---|---|---|
| Overall supply | Imports supplied 88% of total fertilizer consumption in 2025, Purdue reports. | Domestic industry supplied nearly 60% of demand for primary N, P, and K nutrients in 2025, Purdue reports. |
| Nitrogen | Imports supplied 95% of crop nitrogen needs in 2025; urea is almost entirely imported, Purdue reports. | Greater domestic nitrogen capacity, according to farmdoc; no comparable percentage is stated in these sources. |
| Phosphate | 72% import dependence in 2025, Purdue reports. | Farmdoc reports 13% import reliance for phosphate rock in 2024, but about one-third of finished phosphate products were imported. These are different products and measures. |
| Potash | 96% import dependence in 2025, Purdue reports; sources include Canada, Russia, and Belarus. | 95% of requirements imported in 2025, Purdue reports; Canada supplied 79% of potash used during 2021–2024. |
| Procurement timing in the April assessment | Soybean fertilizer decisions generally fall in February–May; corn decisions in July–November, farmdoc reports. | Much fertilizer for the 2026 crop had already been purchased or applied before the conflict, farmdoc reports. |
Why crop calendars made the difference immediate
Farmdoc’s April 10 analysis places Brazil in its 2026/27 soybean fertilizer buying window. By April 3, about 30% of the estimated fertilizer volume for that crop had been purchased, below the cited recent-year average of about 40%. The paper, citing CNA (2025), also says roughly 70% of Brazil’s annual fertilizer imports occur from April through September. These are time-specific procurement observations from the April analysis, not a measure of purchases later in the year.
The calendar matters because fertilizer cannot always be shifted to a later delivery date without consequences for the crop. In the farmdoc account, soybean fertilizer decisions generally occur February–May, while decisions for corn generally occur July–November. Mato Grosso’s soybeans are typically planted in October–November and harvested January–March, followed by safrinha corn. Brazil’s 2026 corn crop was already planted by the April assessment and fertilizer was likely applied; the nearer procurement pressure was for 2026/27 soybeans, while 2027 corn decisions came later.
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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallAs FAO Director-General QU Dongyu put it in remarks on May 7, 2026: “Agriculture operates within a crop calendar that cannot be postponed.” He added: “If they do not arrive on time, yields are reduced, regardless of what happens later.” This is a warning about the consequence of delayed delivery, not evidence that a particular Brazilian or U.S. crop had already suffered a yield loss. FAO, May 7, 2026.
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The U.S. had a different timing position for the 2026 crop: farmdoc says much of its fertilizer had been bought or applied the preceding fall. Its authors describe some possible adjustments to remaining nitrogen applications and soil tests that can identify certain fields where reduced phosphorus or potassium application might not cause a near-term yield loss. These are management options discussed by the source, not recommendations for an individual farm.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How the September market update changed the picture
The latest market account in the sources here is IFPRI’s September 18, 2026 update. It says Persian Gulf fertilizer shipments remained largely halted during its reporting period. Shipments were negligible in a mid-June to mid-July ceasefire window, and IMF-Portwatch tracking showed flows falling near zero after hostilities resumed in mid-July. That account does not verify shipping conditions on October 8.
| Market measure | What IFPRI reported on September 18, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Urea prices | Prices peaked almost 80% above January 1 levels in late April, then returned to January levels by the end of August. |
| MAP and DAP phosphate prices | Prices rose 25%–30% after the Strait closure and remained at those elevated levels from mid-May through the September 18 update. |
| Sulfur prices | Prices more than doubled over the six months covered by the update. |
| Global nitrogen exports | Mirror-trade data from 77 reporting importers showed exports down 9% in January–June 2026 versus January–June 2025. |
| Brazil nitrogen imports | Imports fell 461,000 metric tons, or 19%, in the first half of 2026 versus the first half of 2025. |
| U.S. nitrogen exports | Exports reached 1.2 million metric tons in January–June 2026, almost 60% above the same period in 2025. |
| Global phosphate exports | Exports fell more than 9% in January–June 2026 year over year; U.S. phosphate imports fell 14%, while Brazil’s fell less than 5%. |
| Elemental sulfur exports | First-half exports fell from 13.5 million to 9 million metric tons year over year, a 33% decline. |
IFPRI uses mirror-trade data because some major exporters do not report their export flows. The reported increase in U.S. nitrogen exports is evidence of adaptation in trade, but it does not show that U.S. shipments replaced all fertilizer volumes disrupted in the Gulf. Meanwhile, the divergence between urea and phosphate prices shows why a single headline description of fertilizer prices can mislead: the products did not move together. IFPRI, September 18, 2026.
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What the risk comparison does—and does not—say
The April comparison supports a conclusion about exposure and timing, not a prediction that Brazilian farmers necessarily faced yield losses while U.S. farmers did not. The later IFPRI update documents lower first-half Brazilian nitrogen imports and disrupted global flows, but it does not establish national fertilizer inventories, the final effect on crop yields, or October spot prices. FAO’s May warning that delayed fertilizer could reduce yields and tighten supplies later in 2026 and 2027 is an outlook, not a measured country-specific harvest result.
For the U.S., domestic nitrogen capacity, largely domestic phosphate production, and earlier purchasing for the 2026 crop provided buffers. Potash imports and finished phosphate products remained exposures, and prices could still reflect global disruption. For Brazil, high nutrient import reliance combined with soybean procurement timing and truck-dependent inland logistics made the near-term risk greater. Farmdoc notes that diesel costs can raise the expense of moving inputs inland to areas such as Mato Grosso and moving soybeans to ports, putting pressure on farm margins and export competitiveness.
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