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StoneX and Celeres raised their estimates for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop in February 2026 after harvest results, especially yields in some regions, came in better than expected. Reuters reported StoneX’s estimate at 181.62 million metric tons and Celeres’ at 181.3 million metric tons on February 2. Those were forecasts—not final production figures—and later estimates changed the picture.
What changed in the February forecasts?
On February 2, 2026, Reuters reported that StoneX raised its Brazil soybean estimate to 181.62 million metric tons from 177.61 million, a reported year-over-year increase of 7.6%. Celeres lifted its estimate to 181.3 million metric tons from 177.2 million. Celeres said the projection would represent a record crop, 5% above 2024/25. Reuters’ February 2 report attributed the revisions to yields that had exceeded prior expectations in some places.
StoneX’s own February release rounded its estimate to 181.6 million tonnes, four million tonnes above its previous forecast. The difference between 181.62 million in Reuters’ report and 181.6 million in StoneX’s release reflects source-specific precision, not a separate estimate. StoneX reported planted area of 48.7 million hectares and a national average yield of 3.73 tonnes per hectare, saying both area and yield adjustments contributed to its increase. StoneX’s February release noted that weather irregularities left some areas more variable even as the outlook remained positive.
Why did the companies raise their estimates?
Harvest yields surprised on the upside
The central reason was new information as the harvest progressed: yields in some regions were better than expected. Celeres said, “With the start of the 2025/26 harvest, some regions have surprised positively in terms of yields.” It also said that favorable weather during much of the crop cycle made southern Brazil stand out that season. Reuters did not identify an individual speaker for those Celeres comments, so they are attributable to the consultancy.
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StoneX adjusted both area and yield
StoneX’s February numbers imply that its revision was not solely a yield call: the firm cited adjustments to planted area as well as productivity. Its analyst Ana Luiza Lodi told Reuters, “As the harvest progresses, the outlook remains quite positive, despite some areas showing greater variability due to weather irregularities.” That qualification matters: a favorable national estimate did not mean weather conditions or results were uniform across Brazil.
How the estimates compare—and why they differ
| Publisher and vintage | Production estimate and revision | Area and yield assumptions | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| USDA Economic Research Service, January 2026 | 178.0 million metric tons, raised by 3.0 million tonnes | 49.1 million hectares; 3.63 tonnes per hectare | A dated independent forecast based on higher harvested acreage and yield. USDA’s January outlook |
| StoneX, February 2026, as reported by Reuters | 181.62 million metric tons, up from 177.61 million | 48.7 million hectares; 3.73 tonnes per hectare in StoneX’s own release | Private consultancy forecast raised during harvest; Reuters reported the production figure. Reuters and StoneX |
| Celeres, February 2026, as reported by Reuters | 181.3 million metric tons, up from 177.2 million | Not stated in Reuters’ report | Private consultancy forecast; Celeres described it as a record and 5% above 2024/25. Reuters |
| StoneX, May 4, 2026 | 181.6 million tonnes, after a further increase of nearly two million tonnes | 49.1 million hectares; 3.7 tonnes per hectare | A later private forecast vintage; StoneX cited yield revisions, an area reassessment in Rio Grande do Sul and localized weather losses. StoneX’s May release |
| Conab, 12th survey, September 15, 2026 | 180.4 million tonnes | Not stated in the cited survey summary | Later government survey estimate, described by Conab as a record; it is not presented here as a final outturn. Conab’s September survey announcement |
These figures are not perfectly like-for-like. The USDA number is a January forecast; the StoneX and Celeres figures are private consultancy forecasts reported in February; and Conab’s September figure is a later government survey estimate. Each reflects a different publication date, information set and methodology. The lower January USDA estimate does not, by itself, show that one forecaster was wrong.
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What changed after February?
StoneX’s May 4 release kept its estimate at 181.6 million tonnes after a further upward revision of nearly two million tonnes. It reported 49.1 million hectares of planted area, an average yield of 3.7 tonnes per hectare and ending stocks of 8.41 million tonnes. StoneX attributed the changes mainly to yield revisions and an area reassessment in Rio Grande do Sul, while also noting localized weather losses.
Conab’s 12th survey, published September 15, 2026, estimated soybean production at 180.4 million tonnes and described the volume as a record, citing expanded planted area and improved average productivity. Conab estimated total Brazilian grain production at 361.7 million tonnes. This later government estimate makes clear why the February consultancy figures should be treated as a snapshot rather than the crop’s final word; the cited survey is an estimate, not a verified final outturn.
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