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Tennessee row-crop producers faced estimated combined losses of $298 million in 2024 and $192 million in 2025, according to University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture estimates reported by Tennessee Lookout. The 2025 figure is after federal aid and crop-insurance payments partially reduced an initial $476 million estimate. These are statewide estimates, not audited farm accounts, and they do not show how much any individual farm lost.
The figures describe a difficult state-level picture even as USDA forecasts higher U.S. crop cash receipts for 2026. National receipts, Tennessee farm-gate prices, and a farm’s net profit are different measures. For Tennessee farmers, global demand and trade shifts add another layer of uncertainty to already consequential planting, input, financing, and marketing decisions.
What the two years of losses tell us—and what they do not
The University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture estimates, as reported by Tennessee Lookout, put combined losses for Tennessee cotton, soybean, corn, and wheat/soybean producers at $298 million in 2024. For 2025, the initial combined loss estimate was $476 million; federal aid and crop-insurance payments partially offset it, leaving an estimated $192 million loss.
The estimates reflect pressure from several factors together: high input costs, storms, drought, high interest rates, geopolitical changes, trade disruption during tariff negotiations, and lower commodity prices. The reporting does not quantify each factor’s contribution. Nor does it provide a comparable crop-by-crop breakdown of the losses, so the figures cannot establish which crop accounted for the largest share.
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They also are not a measure of every Tennessee farm’s results. Farm size, yields, input purchases, debt, insurance coverage, marketing choices, and timing can all affect an individual operation’s outcome. The statewide estimates are a warning about the sector’s strain, not a prediction of a particular producer’s balance sheet.
Why global market shifts matter to a Tennessee farm
Farmers sell into markets shaped by buyers and competing suppliers around the world. When a major buyer changes where it sources a crop, or when trade negotiations disrupt expected sales, that can affect demand and prices beyond the countries directly involved. Producers may have to make planting and marketing decisions months before they know what those conditions will be.
The Tennessee Lookout account describes China as the largest buyer of U.S. soybean exports and reports that, during trade disputes, China increasingly sourced soybeans from South America. It also reports a late-2025 agreement for China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually in 2026–2028. That is a reported commitment for future purchases, not evidence that those purchases have already occurred.
The risk is not limited to soybeans. A farmer cited in the reporting had made a marketing plan before leaving on vacation, then lost tens of thousands of dollars when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed international markets. That example illustrates how abruptly events can disrupt an individual plan; it should not be read as an average loss or a typical outcome for Tennessee farmers.
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Stefan Maupin, executive director of the Tennessee Soybean Promotion Council, said: “That has had a shelf life of about 30 to 35 years, but we live in a very dangerous world now … and things are changing.” His comment reflects the challenge of relying on familiar market assumptions when trade relationships and geopolitical conditions can shift.
National revenue forecasts are not Tennessee farm profits
The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts U.S. crop cash receipts of $253.0 billion in 2026, up $14.6 billion, or 6.1 percent, from 2025 in nominal terms. The forecast expects receipts for corn, soybeans, and cotton to rise. It is a national forecast for crop cash receipts—not Tennessee net farm income, not a forecast of an individual farm’s revenue, and not a measure of profit after costs.
The distinction matters because receipts do not subtract production expenses such as seed, fertilizer, fuel, labor, rent, interest, or other costs. A higher national crop-receipts forecast therefore does not establish that Tennessee producers have recovered from recent losses. USDA also forecasts total cash receipts across the entire farm sector to decline in inflation-adjusted terms, a separate measure from nominal crop receipts.
What Tennessee acreage and price projections show
The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research’s 2026 report excerpt gives estimates of Tennessee harvested acreage in 2025 and projected farm-gate price ranges for the 2025/26 marketing period. The acreage figures are estimates, and the prices are projections—not realized prices or net returns.
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| Crop | 2025 Tennessee harvested acreage estimate | 2025/26 projected Tennessee farm-gate price |
|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | 1.52 million acres | $10.00–$12.00 per bushel |
| Corn | 870,000 acres | $4.00–$5.20 per bushel |
| Wheat | 270,000 acres | $5.10–$6.25 per bushel |
| Cotton | 190,000 acres | $0.65–$0.75 per pound |
These ranges offer a planning reference, not a guarantee of what a grower will receive. Actual farm revenue also depends on yields, quality, timing, marketing terms, and other farm-specific conditions. A projected price range cannot be compared directly with the statewide loss estimates to calculate a typical producer’s margin.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How the state is responding
Tennessee agriculture officials have described several directions for helping producers: continuing cost-sharing programs, supporting diversification of farm products, identifying emerging foreign markets, and improving infrastructure that can help move exports to customers. These are policy efforts intended to address costs, market access, and resilience; the reporting does not say they have restored farm profitability.
Tennessee Department of Agriculture Commissioner Andy Holt called the combined pressures a “recipe for disaster.” He also said, as reported by Tennessee Lookout: “This problem is so large, there is no single solution. There is no government, whether state or federal, that can cure the economic loss that has occurred over the last couple of years.” The range of pressures helps explain why no single market or policy change can settle the issue for every operation.
What farmers and households should take from the outlook
For a producer, the practical issue is not simply whether a national forecast points up or down. It is whether a farm’s expected crop revenue can cover its own costs and financing obligations under uncertain yields and prices. The statewide loss estimates and national receipts forecast cannot answer that farm-by-farm question.
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- Separate revenue from returns. Crop receipts and projected farm-gate prices do not account for an operation’s production costs or debt service.
- Treat market commitments as forward-looking. A reported purchasing agreement is not the same as completed purchases or a guaranteed price for a Tennessee grower.
- Recognize the limits of diversification and export efforts. New crops, customers, or infrastructure may broaden options, but the reported initiatives do not establish a certain recovery or remove volatility.
For consumers and local communities, the figures indicate pressure on an important part of Tennessee agriculture, but they do not by themselves predict retail food prices, farm closures, or the financial outcome of any individual operation. Those outcomes depend on additional factors not captured by the statewide loss estimates.
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