Machinery sales did not have one uniform start to 2025. In the strongest available U.S. agricultural-equipment data, shipments fell most sharply for high-horsepower tractors and combines. High borrowing costs, weak farm margins and liquidity, ample inventory, and uncertainty about large purchases all weighed on demand. Construction equipment faced headwinds too, but construction spending and output forecasts are not machinery-sales figures. The available evidence covers particular segments and geographies, not all machinery worldwide.
What the 2025 figures actually measure
The clearest numbers come from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), which reports equipment shipments. Shipments show units sent into the market; they are not identical to retail sales to end users. The figures below also compare different periods, so they should not be combined into a single machinery-sales rate.
| Market and period | Reported measure | Change |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. low-horsepower tractors, December 2024; reported by AEM in February 2025 | Shipments versus December 2023 and the five-year average | 13% below the prior year; 24% below the five-year average. AEM, February 20, 2025 |
| U.S. high-horsepower tractors and combines, 2024; reported by AEM in February 2025 | Shipments versus the prior year and five-year average | 17% below the prior year; approximately in line with the five-year average. AEM, February 20, 2025 |
| U.S. high-horsepower agricultural equipment, through June 2025 | Year-to-date shipments versus the prior year and five-year average | 31% below the prior year; 25% below the five-year average. AEM, August 21, 2025 |
| U.S. low-horsepower tractors, through June 2025 | Year-to-date shipments versus the prior year and five-year average | 10% below the prior year; 28% below the five-year average. AEM, August 21, 2025 |
| Canadian low-horsepower tractors, through June 2025 | Year-to-date shipments versus the prior year and five-year average | 4% above the prior year; 20% below the five-year average. AEM, August 21, 2025 |
| Canadian high-horsepower agricultural equipment, through June 2025 | Year-to-date shipments versus the prior year and five-year average | 4% below the prior year; 12% above the five-year average. AEM, August 21, 2025 |
The contrast matters: by June, U.S. high-horsepower shipments were especially weak, while Canada’s high-horsepower shipments remained above their five-year average. These are partial-year shipment readings, not a final 2025 tally of sales.
Why farmers held back on equipment purchases
Financing was more expensive
Higher interest rates raised the cost of borrowing for large equipment purchases. AEM’s Senior Director of Business Intelligence, Al Melhim, said elevated rates increased borrowing expenses and made it harder for farmers to justify major investments in new machinery. AEM also reported that financed new-equipment sales had fallen at an 11% compound annual growth rate over the preceding year as of August 2025; financed used-equipment sales were down 7%. These are AEM-reported financing trends, not shipment declines or a measure of every transaction. AEM, August 21, 2025
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Farm economics and cash flow were under pressure
AEM cited falling commodity prices, tight margins, and constrained liquidity alongside cautious investment. When farm income and available cash are under pressure, replacing a working machine is easier to defer than a repair that cannot wait. No single factor is established as the sole cause of the slowdown.
Dealers already had substantial stock
AEM’s February 2025 update said dealer inventory days had risen. Its estimate of days sales of inventory—how long current stock would take to sell at the recent pace—was nearly eight months for low-horsepower tractors in the U.S. and nine months in Canada. For high-horsepower tractors, it was about four months in the U.S. and five months in Canada. The figures describe inventory coverage, not a prediction that every machine would take exactly that long to sell. AEM, February 20, 2025
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When dealers have more machines on hand, buyers may have less reason to order new units immediately, while manufacturers and dealers may focus on moving existing stock. AEM also identified slower inventory turnover as a headwind.
What the later retrospective says about farmers’ response
In February 2026, AEM described 2025 as particularly difficult for U.S. agricultural equipment, especially in the high-horsepower segment. It said strained margins, poor credit conditions, and weak liquidity discouraged large purchases. Some farmers shifted spending toward maintenance, repairs, retrofits, and incremental upgrades instead of replacing whole machines. AEM also said low-horsepower unit sales settled around historic averages after post-pandemic growth, and that used supply was ample for smaller tractors, sprayers, and some combines. This is a retrospective account published in 2026, not information available at the start of 2025. AEM, February 12, 2026
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Construction equipment faced a different, mixed outlook
Construction is relevant context, but its indicators need to be kept separate from machinery sales. Deere’s FY2024 annual report forecast lower 2025 agricultural and turf sales and construction-equipment sales. For the U.S. and Canada, the company expected construction-equipment industry sales to fall from 2024 levels, citing weakness in some building and oil-and-gas activity, used inventories, uncertainty, and low earthmoving-rental purchases. That was a manufacturer’s forecast, not a final report of 2025 results. Deere, FY2024 annual report
Other construction measures showed variation rather than a simple collapse. The American Institute of Architects’ July 2025 consensus forecast projected nominal U.S. nonresidential building spending growth of 1.7% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, while manufacturing-facility spending was forecast to decline 2.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. Separately, AEM’s August 2025 construction outlook summary said expected U.S. construction-output growth had been revised from 4% earlier in the year to 1.02% for 2025, with 1.4% expected in 2026. AEM pointed to energy, utilities, and infrastructure as sources of activity. These are spending and output forecasts, respectively—not equipment-sales results. AIA, July 2025 AEM, August 21, 2025
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What to take away from a “slow start”
- The weakness was segment-specific. U.S. high-horsepower agricultural equipment had the steepest decline in AEM’s June 2025 shipment data; low-horsepower tractors also trailed their five-year average.
- Financing and farm cash flow help explain caution. Higher rates, tight margins, weak liquidity, and falling commodity prices made large purchases harder to justify, while existing inventory reduced urgency.
- Construction evidence is not a proxy for machine sales. Industry sales forecasts, building-spending forecasts, and construction-output forecasts describe different things and should not be treated as interchangeable.
- There is no single global 2025 machinery-sales figure in these sources. The evidence is specific to equipment classes, countries, metrics, and dates; it cannot support a blanket conclusion about every machinery market or a complete-year worldwide total.
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