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Russia is forecast to remain the world’s leading wheat exporter in 2026/27, but its exports are expected to fall substantially from the year before. And the latest detailed stock estimates available here do not show a global drawdown: USDA’s June forecast put world ending stocks slightly higher, even as stocks held by major exporters declined.
What the latest forecast says about Russian wheat exports
USDA’s September 18, 2026 market outlook forecasts Russia as the leading wheat exporter in 2026/27, while projecting its exports substantially lower year over year. The agency attributes the decline to war-related logistical constraints affecting Black Sea transit. Russia’s top ranking describes its place among suppliers; it does not mean shipments are increasing. USDA ERS’s September outlook also forecasts world wheat trade 6 percent below the previous year’s record.
Global stocks and exporter stocks tell different stories
The latest detailed stock figures in the USDA material cited here are from its June 2026 outlook, not its September balance sheet. For 2026/27, USDA forecast world ending stocks of 275.4 million metric tons, 0.4 million more than in its May estimate. In the same June update, it projected major exporters’ ending stocks at 62.5 million metric tons, a 3.3-million-ton decline from May; Russia was among the countries contributing to the lower projection. The June outlook figures therefore support a decline in stocks among major exporters, not a claim that total world stocks were falling.
The distinction matters because global ending stocks include inventory held beyond the major-exporter group. Exporter stocks are a narrower measure of reserves held by key suppliers. A decline in one category can occur while the other rises, as USDA’s June estimates illustrate.
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Other exporters and the trade outlook
Reduced Russian shipments do not translate one-for-one into a reduction in global availability: other suppliers affect how much wheat reaches buyers. USDA forecasts the European Union as the second-leading exporter and says it will partly backfill reduced Black Sea shipments. Canada is expected to post record exports, while Australia’s exports are forecast higher year over year. The United States is forecast to rank fifth, with exports at a three-year low. These are supplier forecasts in USDA’s September outlook, not guarantees of final shipments. USDA ERS’s market summary also links the projected 6 percent decline in global trade from the preceding year’s record to Black Sea transit complications and reduced import needs among some North African and Middle Eastern buyers.
How to read the dates and trade-year figures
Wheat production and supply-and-use estimates are reported by marketing year, and country marketing years can differ from the international trade year. USDA’s documentation says Russia’s and the EU’s local marketing years coincide with their trade years. The June global export estimate is explicitly for the July–June 2026/27 trade year. USDA ERS’s wheat-sector documentation explains the marketing-year basis, while the June outlook labels the trade-year estimate.
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USDA forecast global wheat exports at 213.4 million metric tons for the July–June 2026/27 trade year in June, 0.8 million below its May estimate. This is a dated June forecast, not the latest September estimate. USDA’s September report explains official supply-and-use projections for 2025/26 and 2026/27 released in the September 11 WASDE, but the September numerical tables are not available in the cited material here. No September stock or Russian export tonnage should be inferred from the June figures. The June outlook is the source for the 213.4-million-ton figure; the September outlook page describes the report’s scope.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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