Electricity-network investment, expanding data-centre infrastructure and risks to mine supply could all put upward pressure on copper by 2028. Together they make a plausible bullish case, not a price forecast: the cited outlooks project demand and supply under particular scenarios, but none establishes that copper will cost more in 2028.
1. Electricity networks and low-emissions technology are broad sources of demand
Copper is used throughout electrical systems, from generation and transmission to distribution and equipment. That makes investment in power infrastructure—and technologies that need more electricity—a structural source of demand, distinct from short-term swings caused by the economic cycle.
The Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources’ September 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly forecast copper demand to grow by an average of 2.6% a year, from 28 million tonnes in 2025 to more than 29 million tonnes in 2027. The department attributed most medium-term growth to rising electricity supply and demand, electrical infrastructure and low-emissions technology. Those are forecast figures through 2027, not observed 2028 demand.
The International Energy Agency’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 projects copper demand to add about 7 million tonnes by 2040—the largest volume increase among the minerals it assessed—because of copper’s role in electricity networks and next-generation technologies. That long-range projection supports the structural-demand case, but it should not be read as a 2028 estimate.
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2. Data centres and AI add another call on power infrastructure
Data centres need electricity, and the infrastructure that supplies and distributes that power uses copper. The Australian department’s September 2025 report says an average data centre supporting AI requires 27–33 tonnes of copper per megawatt of power. The figure links copper use to facility power capacity; it is not a forecast of total global demand.
Estimates of data-centre copper demand vary. The report cites an IEA estimate of around 550,000 tonnes of annual copper demand by 2030, and a BloombergNEF (BNEF) estimate of a 572,000-tonne peak in 2028. These are separate estimates from different publishers, not interchangeable measurements or guaranteed outcomes.
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| Estimate | What it describes | Source and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Around 550,000 tonnes | Annual copper demand associated with data-centre capacity growth by 2030 | IEA estimate cited in the Australian department’s September 2025 report |
| 572,000 tonnes | Peak data-centre copper demand in 2028 | BNEF estimate cited in the Australian department’s September 2025 report |
The same Australian report cites IEA projections that electricity generation for data centres will rise from 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024 to more than 1,000 TWh in 2030, including 426 TWh in the United States. These are projections of electricity generation, not copper demand. They help explain why data-centre buildout could matter to copper, but they do not translate directly into a metal-price outcome.
3. Mine supply can be disrupted, and projects take time to deliver
Demand growth can put pressure on prices if available supply does not keep pace. But announced projects are not the same as producing mines: schedules can slip, and operating mines can face interruptions. Both issues make future supply less certain.
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The IEA’s 2026 outlook puts the projected copper supply gap in 2035 at around 25%, down from around 30% in its previous outlook as more projects entered the pipeline. This is a scenario-based comparison of expected supply from announced projects with primary supply requirements—not a forecast of a 2028 shortage or proof that prices must rise. The IEA’s calculation nets out secondary supply and accounts for refining losses. New projects, expansions, recycling and changes in demand can all alter the balance.
Near-term operating interruptions
The Australian department’s September 2025 report described several 2025 disruptions: the suspension of First Quantum’s Cobre Panama; an interruption following a seismic event and a reduction in output guidance at Kamoa-Kakula; and a tunnel-collapse interruption at Codelco’s El Teniente. The report also said that the effects of a late-September 2025 outage at Grasberg were not included in that quarterly edition. These incidents show how operating problems can affect supply estimates; they do not establish that any disruption will continue into 2028.
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Mine output is also forecast to grow
Supply risk is not the same as declining production. The Australian department forecast global mine output to grow by an average of 3.9% a year from 2025, reaching 25 million tonnes by 2027. That forecast is an important counterweight to the bullish case: the question is whether delivered supply, including mine production and secondary material, can keep pace with demand—not simply whether mines face risks.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could keep copper from rising by 2028?
The three trends point to possible upward pressure, but copper prices also respond to cyclical economic activity, inventories, substitution, recycling, project delivery and policy. Stronger-than-expected supply or weaker demand could offset the pressures described here. Long-term demand projections and a 2035 supply-gap scenario do not determine a 2028 market price, and the cited sources provide no reliable 2028 price target.
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For a personal-finance reader, the distinction is practical: a structural case for more copper use is not, by itself, a reason to assume a particular investment will rise. The outlook is conditional on projects, operating supply and demand evolving in ways that keep the market tight.
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