The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast in 2024 that electricity use by data centres, AI and cryptocurrency could roughly double by 2026—but that was a scenario, not a confirmed result. Its estimate covered about 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2022 and put 2026 use at 620–1,050 TWh, with a base case just over 800 TWh. The IEA’s 2026 update provides newer figures for data centres alone, a different category that cannot directly confirm or disprove the earlier combined forecast.
What did the IEA’s “2x by 2026” forecast mean?
In its 2024 report, the IEA said electricity consumption from data centres, artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency could double by 2026. The agency’s estimate for this combined category was about 460 TWh in 2022—almost 2% of global electricity demand. It projected a 2026 range of 620–1,050 TWh, with a base case just above 800 TWh. IEA, Electricity 2024.
The scope matters: the estimate combined traditional data centres, dedicated AI data centres and cryptocurrency consumption, and excluded electricity used by data-transmission networks. “Could double” described a possible outcome relative to the 2022 baseline, not a measured 2026 total or a promise that use would reach exactly twice the baseline.
Is the IEA’s 2x-by-2026 forecast still accurate?
The forecast should be read as an estimate published in 2024, not as a verified 2026 result. The newer IEA figures use a narrower scope: data centres alone. In Energy and AI, the IEA estimated data centres used around 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of global electricity consumption, and projected around 945 TWh by 2030 in its base case. IEA, “Energy demand from AI”.
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A separate 2026 IEA update says global data-centre electricity demand grew 17% in 2025, while demand at AI-focused data centres grew 50%. It projects data-centre-only consumption rising from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh in 2030—roughly doubling over that period. This is not a like-for-like update of the 2024 forecast: it starts from a different year, covers data centres rather than the combined data-centre, AI and cryptocurrency category, and projects to 2030 rather than 2026. IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI.
Why did the forecast have such a wide range?
The IEA’s 2024 2026 range—from 620 to 1,050 TWh—reflected uncertainty over how quickly computing capacity would be built and how much efficiency would improve. Key variables include:
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- Deployment: How many data centres and AI computing systems are completed and brought online.
- Efficiency: Improvements in chips, software and facility infrastructure that affect electricity use per unit of computing.
- AI adoption: How rapidly organizations use AI and deploy power-intensive accelerated servers.
- Cryptocurrency trends: Changes in the computing activity associated with cryptocurrency.
- Project constraints: Availability of electricity, grid connections, transformers, chips and financing.
The 2026 IEA update reports strong recent growth but says bottlenecks make the most aggressive near-term scenarios less likely. Data centres can be built faster than major energy infrastructure, so electricity supply and grid delivery can limit how quickly planned demand materializes.
How much electricity do data centres use, and what uses it?
Data centres draw electricity to run computing equipment, cool the facility and power other associated IT equipment. The IEA’s 2024 breakdown assigns roughly 40% of data-centre electricity to computing, about 40% to cooling and the remaining 20% to other IT equipment. IEA, Electricity 2024.
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AI growth is associated with greater deployment of high-performance accelerated servers and higher power density. The IEA’s later analysis identifies accelerated servers as a major contributor to projected data-centre consumption growth. That helps explain why AI matters to the electricity outlook, but it does not mean every data-centre load is an AI load.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why can global totals understate local electricity pressure?
A global figure can make the change look evenly spread, but data-centre electricity demand is geographically concentrated. A country or region may face grid constraints even when the global share remains comparatively small. The IEA identifies grid bottlenecks and project-delivery constraints as factors shaping how quickly demand can grow. IEA, Electricity 2024.
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For households and personal-finance readers, the distinction is practical: a worldwide projection does not establish how much electricity prices will rise in any particular area. Local effects depend on where facilities are built and whether electricity generation and grid infrastructure can keep pace; the cited global forecasts do not quantify an individual household’s bill impact.
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