The EU Chips Act has helped build a semiconductor policy framework and mobilize investment, but its 2030 ambition is not matched by equally clear milestones or EU-level control over the money needed to reach it. The European Court of Auditors (ECA) says the European Commission’s forecast was 11.7% of global semiconductor production value by 2030, against the Act’s 20% target.
That gap does not mean the Act has achieved nothing—or that every part of it is inflexible. The sharper problem is accountability: the Union set a headline outcome that depends heavily on national governments and private companies, while lacking full visibility into their investments and measurable targets for each part of the programme.
What the EU Chips Act was designed to do
The European Commission presented its semiconductor package in February 2022, after supply-chain disruption exposed Europe’s dependence on global chip production. Regulation (EU) 2023/1781 entered into force in September 2023. It established three broad strands of action:
- Research and innovation: the Chips for Europe Initiative supports semiconductor research, design, testing and related technology infrastructure.
- Manufacturing capacity: the framework aims to attract and support production in the EU, including first-of-a-kind facilities through state-aid rules.
- Monitoring and crisis response: it creates tools and coordination arrangements to track supply risks and respond to disruption.
The ambition was to increase the EU’s share of global production value for cutting-edge and sustainable semiconductors to 20% by 2030. That is a policy target, not a measured result or a forecast.
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Why the 20% target is difficult to assess
The target and its baseline measure different things
The ECA’s 2025 audit identified a mismatch in how the target is framed. The Digital Decade baseline it examined used revenues of EU-headquartered companies across the semiconductor value chain. The 2030 target, by contrast, concerns semiconductor production located in the EU. Company headquarters, the geography of revenue and the location where chips are produced are not interchangeable measures. A change in one does not necessarily mean the same change in the others.
The audit’s forecast is well below the target
The European Commission forecast reported by the ECA in 2025 put the EU at 11.7% of global production value by 2030. The ECA cited that forecast in concluding that the 20% target was very unlikely on the then-current investment and implementation path. Neither figure is a realized market share.
| Figure | What it represents | Source and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| 20% by 2030 | EU policy target for its share of global production value for cutting-edge and sustainable semiconductors. | European Commission target, as discussed by the ECA in 2025; not a forecast or achieved share. |
| 11.7% by 2030 | Forecast for the EU share of global production value. | European Commission forecast reported by the ECA in 2025; cited by the auditors as evidence the target was very unlikely on the then-current path. |
Where the rigidity critique has evidence behind it
One headline outcome, few operational milestones
The ECA found that the Act set no measurable targets for each of its pillars and had unclear timelines. It also reported that the legislation was prepared urgently without the usual full impact assessment or a public consultation. The audit’s Special Report 12/2025 says: “The Chips Act was prepared in urgency, meaning the procedures usually applied when preparing legislation were not followed, such as evaluation of previous strategies, and an impact analysis of the proposal.”
Without pillar-level milestones, the 20% figure cannot show by itself whether research infrastructure, manufacturing support or crisis preparedness is on schedule—or which intervention needs adjustment. This weakens the link between the overall ambition and practical accountability.
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The Commission cannot direct most of the investment
The announced investment figures are broad policy-driven totals, not a measure of EU budget spending. The ECA reported at least €43 billion in policy-driven investment and at least a comparable amount in expected private investment, for a stated total of at least €86 billion. It also found that the Commission accounted for approximately 10% of announced public funding and lacked a mandate to coordinate national investments at EU level.
That division matters: the EU-level target depends on choices made by Member States and companies that the Commission cannot fully direct. The ECA also found incomplete visibility of total funding, making it harder to see whether investment is sufficient, where gaps remain or whether efforts overlap.
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| Investment figure | Meaning | Source and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| At least €43 billion | Policy-driven investment announced under the Act. | ECA, 2025; not equivalent to EU budget expenditure. |
| At least a comparable amount | Expected private investment alongside the policy-driven amount. | ECA, 2025; an expectation, not a reported realized sum. |
| At least €86 billion | Combined policy-driven and expected private investment. | ECA, 2025; broad announced total, not EU budget spending. |
| Approximately 10% | Commission share of total announced public funding. | ECA, 2025. |
Large projects and outside conditions create exposure
The ECA warned that results also depend on factors beyond the legislation, including private investment, global competition, energy prices, raw materials, export controls and environmental requirements. Because a small number of large projects account for much of the capacity expected, a cancellation or delay could materially change aggregate progress.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the Act has achieved—and what remains unresolved
The Commission’s 2026 evaluation, which covers the Act from its September 2023 entry into force through the end of November 2025, credits it with establishing an EU semiconductor policy framework, mobilizing investment, creating technology infrastructure and improving coordination and crisis preparedness. The evaluation says the transition from producing outputs to achieving system-wide results is still ongoing.
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A research facility, an announced factory, commissioned production capacity and commercially competitive chip output are different stages. Infrastructure and investment commitments can strengthen the foundations for production, but do not establish that the EU has already reached its market-share target or secured reliable supply at scale.
Scale-up, demand and supply-chain visibility remain constraints
The Commission evaluation identifies difficulty financing scale-ups and industrializing research, alongside fragmented markets and low demand volumes. It also points to weak procurement coordination and fragmented supply-chain data. More manufacturing support alone cannot ensure commercial success if companies cannot scale, customers do not provide a strong enough market signal, or policymakers cannot see dependencies across materials, equipment, design tools and downstream users.
What happens next: Chips Act 2.0 remains a proposal
On 3 June 2026, the Commission proposed a regulation that would repeal and replace the 2023 framework. It is a proposal, not a successor law already in force. The Commission’s stated aims include reducing strategic dependencies, supporting advanced production and reinforcing European strengths, including in mainstream chips.
The proposal’s impact assessment identifies procedural complexity, long timelines and administrative burden as constraints, and describes simplification measures in response. Whether those measures become law, and how they change the balance between EU targets and national or private decisions, depends on the legislative process; the proposal’s final outcome is not established by the available official material.
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