There is no single 2025 ARC or PLC payment amount: estimates vary by commodity, and a farm’s eventual payment depends on its enrolled base acres and program calculations. The latest per-acre figures available here are modeled estimates, not guaranteed checks.
Projected payments per base acre by commodity
Farmdoc Daily’s November 18, 2025 projection estimated these average payments per base acre for seven major commodities. Its May 14, 2026 update used newer county-yield and price estimates for corn, soybeans, and wheat. All figures below are projections, not final payment rates.
| Commodity | Farmdoc Daily estimate, November 18, 2025 | Farmdoc Daily estimate, May 14, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Long-grain rice | Approximately $286 per base acre | Not stated in the May 14, 2026 update (farmdoc Daily) |
| Peanuts | Approximately $200 per base acre | Not stated in the May 14, 2026 update (farmdoc Daily) |
| Seed cotton | Approximately $128 per base acre | Not stated in the May 14, 2026 update (farmdoc Daily) |
| Corn | Approximately $66 per base acre | $58 per base acre |
| Grain sorghum | Just under $50 per base acre | Not stated in the May 14, 2026 update (farmdoc Daily) |
| Wheat | Just under $50 per base acre | $47 per base acre |
| Soybeans | Just over $22 per base acre | $29 per base acre |
The November estimates were modeled from USDA price forecasts and program data. The May update incorporated NASS county yields and May WASDE price estimates. They are not interchangeable with an individual farm’s payment rate or check.
Projected national total and program components
Farmdoc Daily’s November 25, 2025 analysis put projected 2025 ARC/PLC payments at $13.54 billion. It estimated that the 2025 rule paying the higher ARC-CO or PLC result would add $3.198 billion to the total.
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| Projected component | Farmdoc Daily estimate, November 25, 2025 |
|---|---|
| ARC-CO | $5.064 billion |
| PLC | $5.278 billion |
| Additional payments attributed to paying the higher ARC-CO or PLC result | $3.198 billion |
| Total projected payments | $13.54 billion |
A separate November 18, 2025 projection described the total as more than $13.5 billion across seven major commodities. Both national totals are projections from farmdoc Daily, not final USDA disbursement totals.
How ARC and PLC determine payments
PLC: a price-based trigger
Price Loss Coverage is triggered when a commodity’s effective price falls below its effective reference price. The payment calculation uses covered commodity base acres and the farm’s program payment yield, rather than simply multiplying the farm’s current production by a projected per-acre average.
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ARC-CO: a county revenue trigger
Agriculture Risk Coverage–County Option is triggered when actual county revenue falls below the benchmark revenue guarantee. Its result therefore depends on county yields as well as prices; the same crop can produce different results in different counties.
ARC-IC: a whole-farm calculation
Agriculture Risk Coverage–Individual Coverage evaluates covered commodities across the whole farm. It is distinct from the county-level ARC-CO comparison and is not folded into the 2025 rule that selects the higher ARC-CO or PLC result.
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For the 2025 program year, USDA will issue the higher ARC-CO or PLC payment regardless of the election made before the law changed. This one-year rule can benefit a producer whose original election is the lower-paying option. ARC-IC remains a separate whole-farm calculation; it is not replaced by this higher-of-ARC-CO-or-PLC rule.
When 2025 payments are scheduled
USDA accepted 2025 ARC/PLC applications from January 21 through April 15, 2025. That application window has closed. USDA’s fact sheet states: “Payment for PLC, ARC-CO and ARC-IC, if triggered for the 2025 program year, will be issued after October 1, 2026.” As of October 4, 2026, that schedule indicates payments may be issued after the stated date; it does not establish that a particular farm’s payment has been issued.
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Why a farm’s payment can differ from these averages
The per-base-acre figures are modeled averages, while a farm payment depends on its own program records and the final calculation. Among the relevant inputs are:
- The farm’s enrolled base acres for the covered commodity.
- The program payment yield used for the farm’s PLC calculation.
- For ARC-CO, the county’s actual yield and benchmark revenue calculation.
- Final marketing-year-average prices and other program data used to calculate the guarantee and effective price.
- Which program result applies under the 2025 higher-payment rule, or the separate ARC-IC whole-farm calculation.
The November projection simulated ARC-CO and PLC rates using USDA WASDE marketing-year-average price forecasts, FSA program data, and county enrolled-base-acre data. The May 2026 update added newer NASS county-yield estimates and May WASDE prices. Until the final inputs and farm-level records are applied, neither a national average nor a commodity projection can establish a guaranteed amount for an individual farm or county.
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How to assess your own expected payment
- Identify the farm’s enrolled program records. Use the farm’s FSA records to confirm covered commodities and enrolled base acres; current crop acres alone do not establish the payment basis.
- Check the relevant calculation. For PLC, the key trigger is the effective price relative to the effective reference price and the calculation uses the program payment yield. For ARC-CO, county revenue is compared with the benchmark guarantee. ARC-IC uses a whole-farm calculation.
- Apply the 2025 rule where relevant. Compare the ARC-CO and PLC outcomes; for 2025 the higher result is payable regardless of the earlier election. Treat ARC-IC separately.
- Wait for final program inputs and farm-level results. Forecast prices and county yields can change the modeled outcome, and a projected commodity average is not a substitute for the farm’s USDA calculation.
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