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The World Bank’s April 2026 baseline forecast is for the annual average copper price to rise about 21% in 2026, then fall about 8% in 2027. That is a dated forecast, not a live quote or guarantee: the report’s price observations run only through April 2026. A separate International Copper Study Group forecast projects refined-copper surpluses in both years, while the International Energy Agency still sees a substantial copper supply gap in its 2035 scenario. These estimates measure different things and can coexist.
What is the copper price forecast for 2026?
The World Bank Group’s Commodity Markets Outlook — April 2026 forecasts the annual average copper price to rise about 21% year over year in 2026, reaching a record annual average. It then forecasts an approximately 8% decline in the annual average in 2027. These percentages describe the Bank’s forecast for average prices over each calendar year; they are not a target for a particular trading day. The outlook was published in April, and its market observations do not establish copper’s price on October 4, 2026. World Bank Group, Commodity Markets Outlook — April 2026.
The Bank reported that copper prices rose 15% quarter over quarter in 2026 Q1, reached an all-time high in January, and remained elevated through April. That historical movement provides context for its forecast, but it should not be mistaken for an October spot or settlement price. World Bank Group, copper market chart and analysis.
Will copper prices go up or down?
On the World Bank’s April 2026 baseline, the annual average rises in 2026 and declines in 2027. The forecast does not say that prices will rise every day or month in 2026, or that the 2027 average will be lower than every price reached in 2026. It compares forecast annual averages, not a continuous price path.
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There is no single undated “copper price forecast” in these sources. For a useful comparison, keep the forecast period, measure, and publication date together:
| Source and date | Horizon and measure | Published outlook |
|---|---|---|
| World Bank Group, April 2026 | Annual average price; year-over-year change | About +21% in 2026, followed by about −8% in 2027. The report’s price observations run through April 2026. |
| International Copper Study Group (ICSG), April 23, 2026 | Annual refined-copper production and usage; adjusted world basis, with surplus figures on its China apparent-usage basis | Projected surpluses of 96,000 tonnes in 2026 and 377,000 tonnes in 2027. This is a physical-market balance estimate, not a price forecast. |
| International Energy Agency (IEA), 2026 outlook | 2035 project-pipeline supply scenario | A copper deficit remains in the 2035 base case, narrowing from around 30% to 25% of primary supply requirements. This is not a 2026–27 price or shortage forecast. |
Why is copper going up?
The World Bank attributed the rise through April 2026 to buoyant demand, setbacks at key mines, disruption to Middle Eastern sulfur exports, and uncertainty over US tariffs on refined-copper imports. Sulfur matters because it is an input used to make sulfuric acid for leaching copper ore. The Bank also said global refined production was flat in 2025 and near-term mine growth was constrained by declining ore grades and operational disruptions at large mines in Asia and South America. World Bank Group, Commodity Markets Outlook — April 2026.
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For the rest of 2026 and into 2027, the Bank expects the phased restart of Indonesia’s Grasberg mine to ease supply constraints. It expects demand to remain solid, supported in part by investment in electrification-related technologies, data centers, transportation, and defense. The outlook therefore combines demand support and constrained supply with an expected easing of some supply pressure; it is not a claim that either factor will determine prices on its own.
How can copper have a projected surplus and still have a high price forecast?
The World Bank forecasts annual average prices; ICSG estimates refined-copper production minus usage. A projected surplus does not mechanically set the price or guarantee falling annual averages. Price formation can also reflect timing, inventories, regional trade, market expectations, and the supply-demand conditions already priced in. The Bank’s high 2026 annual-average forecast and ICSG’s smaller 2026 projected surplus are therefore not directly competing answers to the same question.
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In its April 23, 2026 forecast, ICSG projects adjusted world refined production of 28.760 million tonnes in 2026 and 29.613 million tonnes in 2027. It projects usage of 28.664 million and 29.236 million tonnes, respectively. On the China apparent-usage basis used for its surplus estimates, that produces projected surpluses of 96,000 tonnes in 2026 and 377,000 tonnes in 2027. ICSG forecasts production growth of 0.4% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, compared with usage growth of 1.6% and 2.0%. ICSG Copper Market Forecast 2026–2027.
ICSG says its balance includes adjustments, including an allowance for disruptions based on average forecast deviations over the preceding five years. Its surplus figures should not be described as a guaranteed global inventory build: they are forecast balances on a stated usage basis, not a direct count of all stocks available to every buyer.
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Is there a copper shortage?
The answer depends on the period and what “shortage” means. ICSG’s April 2026 forecast points to modest refined-market surpluses in 2026 and 2027 on its China apparent-usage basis. The IEA’s longer-range 2035 base case, by contrast, still has a copper supply deficit relative to primary supply requirements. Neither estimate establishes that buyers face an immediate shortage everywhere, and the long-range scenario is not a near-term price target.
What the IEA’s 2035 outlook says
The IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 says the projected copper supply deficit has narrowed from around 30% to 25% of primary supply requirements in the 2035 base case as more projects advance, notably in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia. The figure is a project-pipeline scenario: further project progress or delays could change the outlook. It should be kept separate from ICSG’s 2026–27 refined balance and the World Bank’s annual-price forecast. IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 — Executive Summary.
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What could change the forecast?
The April 2026 outlooks depend on assumptions that can shift. The factors identified by the cited organizations include:
- Mine operations and restart timing: the World Bank expects a phased Grasberg restart to ease constraints, while operational disruptions and setbacks at large mines have weighed on supply.
- Ore grades and new capacity: declining ore grades constrain near-term mine growth; the IEA’s 2035 scenario improves as projects advance, including in the DRC and Zambia.
- Sulfur and trade policy: disruption to Middle Eastern sulfur exports can affect sulfuric-acid supply for ore leaching, while uncertainty over US tariffs on refined copper imports can influence trade and market conditions.
- Demand: the World Bank expects demand to remain solid, with support from electrification-related technologies, data centers, transportation, and defense.
- Forecast revisions: the World Bank’s April observations, ICSG’s April balance estimate, and the IEA’s 2035 project scenario are snapshots with different horizons and assumptions. Later data can change them.
These are risk factors, not a reliable way to predict the next daily move. The cited forecasts do not provide an October 4, 2026 spot price or settlement figure.
How can you check what a copper futures quote represents?
CME Group’s standard COMEX copper futures contract specification identifies a contract for 25,000 pounds of deliverable copper, quoted in US cents per pound. That tells you the contract size and quotation unit; the specification page is not a live market quote. A futures price is also a contract-market reference, not automatically the price paid for physical copper goods or scrap. CME Group, Copper Futures Contract Specifications.
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