The University of Illinois farmdoc Farm Bill What-If Tool is an Excel spreadsheet for modeling potential federal commodity-program payments—not an enrollment form, payment guarantee, or current-year recommendation. It lets users compare Agricultural Risk Coverage at the County level (ARC-CO), Price Loss Coverage (PLC), and Agricultural Risk Coverage at the Individual level (ARC-IC) using crop, location, yield, and price assumptions. The official tool page was last updated August 13, 2026, and lists multiple versions, including a Fall 2025 file.
What the Farm Bill What-If Tool does
The [University of Illinois farmdoc Farm Bill What-If Tool](https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/fast-tools/farm-bill-what-if-tool) is a scenario calculator. It selects county yields and marketing-year-average (MYA) prices for a chosen state, county, and crop, then allows users to change yield and price assumptions to examine possible ARC-CO and PLC payments. The 2025 edition discussed by farmdoc was an Excel spreadsheet.
The calculator is part of farmdoc’s FAST tools, a catalog of Excel spreadsheets intended to support agricultural financial analysis, investment decisions, and management decisions. It can help organize a comparison, but its output depends on the program year and assumptions entered.
How PLC, ARC-CO and ARC-IC differ
The programs differ in what triggers support and which acreage basis is used to calculate payments. The mechanics and percentages below are described for the cited program-year context in a 2025 University of Illinois farmdoc article; check current rules before using them for a later year.
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| Program | What can trigger a payment | Payment acreage basis |
|---|---|---|
| PLC | Crop-specific MYA price falls below that crop’s effective reference price. | 85% of historical base acres. |
| ARC-CO | Actual county revenue—MYA price multiplied by county yield—falls below 86% of benchmark revenue. | 85% of historical base acres. |
| ARC-IC | Actual revenue falls below 86% of benchmark revenue. Commodities planted in the current year are combined using a weighted average for an enrolled FSA farm unit. | 65% of historical base acres. |
These descriptions and acreage percentages are reported by University of Illinois farmdoc authors Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Ryan Batts, and Carl Zulauf in 2025. See their explanation of the 2025 tool and program mechanics.
How to use the results responsibly
A useful comparison is not a single prediction. It is a set of outcomes under clearly specified inputs. When working with a version of the spreadsheet, pay attention to:
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- Program year and file version: Match the spreadsheet to the crop/program year you are evaluating. The official page lists earlier files as well as newer versions.
- Location and crop: The tool uses a selected state, county, and crop; county revenue scenarios are tied to those inputs.
- Yield and MYA price assumptions: Changing either can change modeled ARC-CO or PLC payments. Treat each result as conditional on the scenario entered.
- Farm unit: ARC-IC applies at the enrolled FSA farm-unit level, with current-year planted commodities combined using a weighted average in the 2025 description.
- Payment basis: A larger modeled payment rate does not by itself mean the largest total payment, because payment acreage differs among programs.
For current-year projections and historical county data, Iowa State University Extension and Outreach maintains Farm Bill Programs: Data and Methods for ARC-County and PLC, including 2025–2026 ARC-CO and PLC payment projection resources updated in September 2026, along with a link to USDA Farm Service Agency information. Use current official program guidance for eligibility, deadlines, and enrollment decisions; a scenario spreadsheet does not establish those.
What the 2025 analysis concluded—and what it did not
In its January 28, 2025 article, farmdoc authors said ARC-CO appeared most likely to produce larger payments for corn, soybean, and wheat base acres across the scenarios they considered. They also noted PLC could pay more at very low prices, particularly for corn and wheat. That is a dated, scenario-specific conclusion—not a crop-wide rule, current price forecast, or recommendation for every farm. Crop, county, benchmark values, yield assumptions, and MYA price scenarios all affect the comparison.
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The same article reported that the American Relief Act of 2025, signed December 21, 2024, extended the 2018 Farm Bill into 2025, and that April 15, 2025 was the deadline to make or change the 2025 decision. That deadline has passed. The article’s enrollment timing and recommendations should not be treated as current guidance.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Where to find the spreadsheet
Use the official farmdoc Farm Bill What-If Tool page to review available files and its update information. The page’s listed last-update date is August 13, 2026. Choose the file for the relevant program year, and consult current USDA or extension guidance before acting on an enrollment choice.
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