A more aggressive Chinese stimulus package is unlikely for now, according to BofA Global Research economists as reported by Investing.com on 2 October 2026. They identified weaker export growth or a meaningful deterioration in the fiscal position as conditions that could prompt stronger action. The measures described in the report instead target selected home purchases, infrastructure investment and lending channels.
Why BofA expects no major stimulus pivot yet
Investing.com reported that BofA economists viewed policymakers as taking initial steps to stabilize growth while appearing relatively comfortable with aggregate demand in light of strong exports. In that account, weaker exports or a material worsening in fiscal conditions—not simply the existence of the current measures—could change the outlook.
This is BofA’s reported assessment, not a confirmed government commitment or a forecast of what policymakers will do. Investing.com attributed the analysis to unnamed BofA Global Research economists and did not link to the underlying note.
What the reported measures cover
Subsidy for some first-home mortgages
The report described a national subsidy for new first-home mortgages on homes no larger than 120 square metres and valued at no more than 1.5 million yuan. BofA estimated, as reported by Investing.com, that 20%–25% of annual home transactions would qualify and that the maximum first-year fiscal cost would be about 27 billion yuan.
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The report said the subsidy could matter more by improving sentiment and reducing borrowing costs for eligible buyers than through its direct fiscal cost. That is an account of BofA’s analysis, not evidence that sales or buyer expectations have already improved. The eligibility limits also mean it should not be read as broad support for all homebuyers.
Lower-cost funding for infrastructure networks
Investing.com reported that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the one-year pledged supplementary lending (PSL) rate by 25 basis points, from 1.75% to 1.50%. The report said this followed a similar cut in January. It also described an expansion of eligibility to six infrastructure networks:
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BofA estimated that spending in these areas could reach 25 trillion yuan over five years, according to the report. That figure is potential spending, not a statement that the money has been allocated, disbursed or spent.
Expanded relending and rediscounting capacity
The report said the PBOC increased its technology relending quota by 200 billion yuan, to 1.4 trillion yuan, and raised central-bank funding coverage from 60% to 100%. It also reported a 500-billion-yuan increase to the combined agricultural and small-business relending and rediscounting quota, bringing it to 4.85 trillion yuan.
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These are reported quota and funding-coverage changes. Their size alone does not show how much credit will be taken up, how quickly it will reach businesses, or whether it will translate into stronger household demand.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the scale of the package
The measures described are targeted at particular buyers, infrastructure categories and lending channels; the report did not characterize them as a broad demand-side pivot. It called the package much less comprehensive than measures announced in late 2024, but offered no detailed comparison. The distinction matters: a mortgage subsidy’s estimated direct fiscal cost, possible confidence effects, and the amount of lending capacity made available are different measures of policy impact.
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All figures and policy details above come from an Investing.com report syndicated on Yahoo Finance and dated 2 October 2026. The report attributes estimates and analysis to BofA Global Research, but does not identify the economists or provide the underlying note, its exact date, full wording or methodology. Treat the estimates as reported BofA analysis, not official government figures.
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