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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →UK firms’ annual own-price growth and wage growth were unchanged in the three months to September 2026, but many businesses expect higher energy costs to put pressure on prices and profit margins. The Bank of England’s latest survey found that 57% of firms expected to raise prices in response to the energy shock and 70% expected lower margins. Those are expectations, not evidence that every firm has already increased prices or suffered the same bill rise.
What the latest figures say about prices and wages
The Bank of England’s Decision Maker Panel (DMP), published on 2 October 2026, reports firms’ annual own-price growth of 3.7% in the three months to September, unchanged from the three months to August. Firms’ year-ahead own-price inflation expectation was also 3.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from August. “Own-price” refers to firms’ prices across the economy, not just prices charged directly to consumers; it is not the consumer price index (CPI). The DMP survey was conducted from 4 to 18 September and received 1,993 responses. It is weighted and designed to represent UK businesses. Bank of England: Monthly Decision Maker Panel data – September 2026.
Firms reported annual wage growth of 4.0%, also unchanged from August. Their expected wage growth over the year ahead was 3.4%, unchanged from the previous month. These figures describe different things: the 4.0% is reported growth, while 3.4% is an expectation. Neither should be read as a forecast of a particular worker’s pay rise or as a negotiated settlement rate.
How energy costs are affecting firms’ plans
In the September DMP, 57% of firms expected to increase prices because of the recent energy shock, two percentage points fewer than in August. Seven per cent expected to lower prices. The Bank summarised the most common responses this way: “In September, higher prices and lower profit margins remained the most common forms of adjustment.” These are survey responses about firms’ plans and expected effects, not observed price changes across all businesses.
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Seventy per cent of firms expected higher energy prices to reduce their profit margins, two percentage points more than in April. The Bank’s Agents’ September summary offers a broader, qualitative view: contacts said margins appeared slightly less compressed overall as businesses found efficiencies and passed on some costs. That does not cancel out the DMP finding. The DMP asks firms about the effect of the energy shock; Agents’ reports describe contacts’ wider business conditions and responses.
The Agents’ Summary states: “Higher energy prices continue to push input costs upwards, offset only partially by weak demand.” Contacts described passing on higher energy, fuel and commodity costs where possible, alongside measures such as efficiency improvements, procurement savings and restraint in replacing staff. Some businesses may face a renewed cost increase when a fixed-price energy contract or hedge expires; the reports do not establish that all firms use such arrangements or will see the same change. Bank of England: Agents’ summary of business conditions – September 2026.
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How to read the separate pay-settlement figure
The Agents’ Summary puts the double-weighted average 2026 pay settlement at 3.6%. A pay settlement is not interchangeable with the DMP’s 4.0% reported wage growth or 3.4% expected wage growth: each is a distinct measure. The settlement estimate should not be treated as the pay rise received by every worker or as a direct comparison with a firm’s own wage-growth response.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the ONS business survey adds—and what it cannot show
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that 59% of businesses expressed some degree of concern about energy prices in late August. In its survey, 38% of businesses with 10 or more employees said staffing costs—including wages, bonuses, National Insurance and pension contributions—had risen over the preceding three months. Sixteen per cent of businesses with 10 or more employees said employees’ hourly wages increased in July.
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These ONS measures are not directly comparable with the DMP’s price and wage-growth figures: they ask different questions, cover different periods and use a different survey population. The ONS figures come from the voluntary Business Insights and Impact on the UK Economy survey (BICS), based on responses collected from 17 to 30 August 2026. ONS labels the statistics “official statistics in development” and cautions that estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling uncertainty. BICS also excludes several sectors, including agriculture, oil and gas extraction, energy generation and supply, public administration and defence, public provision of education and health, and finance and insurance. ONS: Business insights and impact on the UK economy: 3 September 2026.
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What “steady” does—and does not—mean
- It means selected survey measures held level month to month. The DMP’s reported annual own-price growth and wage growth were unchanged from August; some expectations were unchanged and the own-price expectation edged down.
- It does not mean bills or costs stopped rising. The Bank’s Agents reported continuing pressure from energy and other inputs, while firms described adjusting prices and seeking savings.
- It does not describe every firm’s experience. Survey expectations, weighted panel estimates, voluntary ONS responses and qualitative reports from Bank contacts each capture different evidence and populations.
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