Possibly—but these are conditional model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. A 2026 report, Powering Canada’s Growth, estimates that an electrified-economy scenario could produce $3.1 trillion in additional cumulative economic output from 2026 through 2050 and 1,606,250 more jobs in 2050 than a business-as-usual scenario. The output figure is in real 2022 Canadian dollars; it is not an extra $3.1 trillion of GDP every year or the annual GDP increase in 2050.
What the $3.1 trillion and 1.6 million figures mean
New Economy Canada and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce published Powering Canada’s Growth on September 29, 2026. Open Insights, a consortium led by University of Victoria researchers, modelled the economic effects of an electrified-economy scenario and compared them with a business-as-usual case.
- $3.1 trillion: additional economic output accumulated across 2026–2050, measured in real 2022 Canadian dollars and compared with business as usual. It is not a single-year GDP figure.
- 1,606,250 jobs: the modelled difference between the two scenarios in 2050—not a promise of that many new jobs each year.
- $201.9 billion: additional annual output in 2050 in the report’s model results.
- About 975,000 jobs: the report’s average additional employment across the modelled years 2026–2050, distinct from the 2050 endpoint.
- $5 in economic benefits per $1 invested in the power sector: the report’s stated benefit-to-investment result, not a guaranteed commercial return.
All are modelled differences from a baseline, not estimates of what Canada will necessarily achieve. The report page presents the headline output, employment and investment results; the September 29 announcement also describes the scenario comparison.
What changes in the electrified-economy scenario
The scenario is not simply a plan to build more power plants. It assumes electricity replaces more fossil-fuel use in transportation, buildings and industrial processes, as well as a larger electricity system to meet that demand.
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| Measure | Electrified-economy scenario | Business-as-usual scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity demand in 2050 | 1,316 TWh; a 102% increase | 973 TWh; a 50% increase |
| Electricity’s share of total energy use in 2050 | 34.8%, up from 18.2% | 23.2%, up from 18.2% |
| Energy scenario basis | Canada Energy Regulator net-zero scenario, with report adjustments | Canada Energy Regulator Current Measures scenario |
Open Insights used energy inputs from the Canada Energy Regulator’s Canada’s Energy Future 2026 scenarios, then ran MacroABM-CA, an agent-based macroeconomic model covering all ten provinces. The report team says it adjusted the scenarios for policies and projects to reflect the energy landscape as of July 2026. The underlying CER scenarios used a November 2025 policy cutoff. More detail is set out in the report’s methodology and assumptions.
Which industries could gain or lose?
The report measures sectors in two different ways: cumulative additional output over 2026–2050 and the employment difference in 2050. Its output-growth percentages compare each sector with its business-as-usual baseline. A high percentage increase does not necessarily mean the largest dollar or job gain.
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| Sector category | Cumulative output difference, 2026–2050 | Jobs difference in 2050 | Output change versus baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services | +$1.2 trillion | +866,000 | +3.8% |
| Industry and manufacturing | +$486 billion | +247,000 | +6.8% |
| Construction | +$458 billion | +203,000 | +8.0% |
| Property and real estate | +$444 billion | About +20,000 | +4.8% |
| Power (electricity, gas and steam) | +$246 billion | +100,000 | +17.4% output; +50.0% jobs versus baseline |
| Fossil-fuel energy | −$381 billion | −40,000 | −6.4% output; −17.2% jobs |
Services account for the largest listed absolute output and employment gains, while power has the strongest relative growth among these categories. Fossil-fuel energy contracts relative to the baseline. These are aggregate Canadian sector results; they do not establish that every worker, community or province gains equally.
What has to happen for the modelled gains to materialize?
The report identifies labour-force growth and access to capital as enabling conditions. Expanding electricity infrastructure requires workers and financing. If labour and capital are not available fast enough, resources may be pulled toward grid construction and away from investment and hiring elsewhere, limiting the broader growth in the model.
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The scenario also depends on policy and project assumptions. The CER inputs had a November 2025 policy cutoff, while the report says it incorporated feasible updates through July 2026. That distinction matters: the estimates reflect a modelled pathway informed by those inputs, not a complete accounting of every subsequent policy or project change.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Important uncertainties in the report
- Data-centre electricity use: The CER scenarios add 3.5 GW of data-centre demand by 2050 in both cases. The methodology says this is materially below other estimates and below demand implied by data-centre projects already proposed. If actual demand is higher, electricity needs could exceed the electrified scenario’s projected doubling.
- Supply chains: The CER scenarios do not provide a detailed supply-chain narrative. The model allocates supply-chain effects using historical input-output shares. New domestic clean-technology supply chains or project corridors could mean more manufacturing and trade growth than the model captures.
- Exports: The model assumes no major expansion or contraction in export markets. It attributes projected gains mainly to investment, employment, rising household incomes and spending within Canada. Successful export diversification could add growth beyond the estimates.
- Commodity markets: International commodity demand is not set externally by the model, except for oil and gas assumptions aligned with CER scenarios; the model assumes excess production can be sold internationally.
Because these choices shape the results, the figures are best read as a conditional economic scenario rather than a forecast with a guaranteed outcome. The report was published by organizations advocating an electrified economy, and the modelling was conducted by Open Insights; that attribution and the assumptions are important context for interpreting its headline numbers.
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What the report recommends
To pursue the full scenario, the report calls for sustained political commitment and public investment across jurisdictions, mobilizing public and private capital, coordinated workforce development, and stronger domestic supply chains. Its central point is that expanding electricity supply alone is not enough: electrification across the economy, investment and workforce capacity must advance together.
At the May 2026 announcement of Canada’s National Electricity Strategy, Prime Minister Mark Carney said: “The path to affordability is electrification; the path to competitiveness is electrification; the path to net zero is electrification.” The report page attributes the statement to that event.
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