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economic indicators

U.S. Factory Activity Eases in September as Prices Jump, ISM Survey Shows

The September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.5 but stayed above 50 for a ninth month. New orders strengthened as the Prices index rose to 77.9.

By TheFinanceBase Team 3 min read

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U.S. manufacturing continued to expand in September 2026, but the ISM headline index edged down to 54.5 from 54.6 in August while its Prices index jumped to 77.9. The small PMI decline was not a return to contraction; the sharper change was that manufacturers reported prices rising at a faster rate.

What did the September ISM manufacturing PMI show?

The Institute for Supply Management’s September 2026 Manufacturing PMI was 54.5, down 0.1 percentage point from August’s 54.6. Both readings were above 50, the familiar diffusion-index line separating expansion from contraction. ISM said manufacturing activity expanded for a ninth consecutive month, after a 10-month period of contraction. The report was released October 1, 2026. ISM’s September report and table provide the official figures.

ISM also notes that, over time, a Manufacturing PMI above 47.5 percent generally indicates expansion in the overall economy. That is a separate threshold convention, not the manufacturing index’s 50-point expansion line. Neither threshold means that every manufacturer or industry is growing.

Why did activity ease while manufacturing still expanded?

The headline is a composite measure, so a tenth-point decline does not mean every component weakened. New Orders and Employment improved, while Production cooled from August. The headline remained above 50, and ISM characterized the sector as expanding. The month-to-month movement was therefore a slight easing in the index, not a contraction in manufacturing.

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September’s component readings show the mixed picture. New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories are seasonally adjusted in ISM’s report; do not assume that adjustment applies to every index listed here.

Index September 2026 August 2026 What the change indicates
New Orders 55.3 53.7 Expanded for a ninth month and strengthened.
Production 56.7 58.3 Still grew, but at a slower rate.
Employment 52.7 51.2 Grew for a third month and strengthened.
Supplier Deliveries 59.0 59.3 Deliveries continued to slow; the rate of slowing eased slightly.
Inventories 48.6 50.6 Moved into contraction.
Customers’ Inventories 41.6 not stated (ISM September 2026 report) ISM classified customers’ inventories as “Too Low.”
Backlog of Orders 56.4 51.8 Orders awaiting completion grew more quickly.
New Export Orders 50.9 53.2 Still grew, but more slowly.
Imports 51.0 52.5 Still grew, but more slowly.

These are diffusion-index readings, not percentage changes in output, hiring, or inventory volume. For Supplier Deliveries, a reading above 50 means deliveries are slowing, so 59.0 does not mean deliveries improved or that delivery times fell.

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How much did the ISM Prices index rise?

The Prices index rose 6.8 points, from 71.1 in August to 77.9 in September. ISM described this as prices increasing at a faster rate. The 77.9 reading is not a 77.9% increase in prices: it is a diffusion-index measure of respondent reports about price direction.

Respondents reported price increases for aluminum, brass products, copper, corrugated products, diesel fuel, electrical and electronic components, freight, fuel, memory components, nickel, oil-based products, packaging materials, plastic-based products, printed circuit boards, resins, semiconductors, soybean meal, steel and zinc. ISM listed no commodities as down in price. The report also listed aluminum products, copper, DRAM, electrical and electronic components, memory, printed circuit boards, steel and tungsten products as in short supply. These are respondent mentions, not a comprehensive price census. The report’s commodity lists do not quantify how much any item contributed to the index’s rise.

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What the survey can—and cannot—say about price pressures

The index captures survey respondents’ assessments; it does not identify a cause for the monthly rise. The official September material does not quantify how much of the increase came from a particular conflict, tariff or other factor. It therefore supports the conclusion that respondents reported faster price increases, but not a specific explanation for them. ISM’s September manufacturing roundup provides additional attributed comments, not a causal estimate.

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How to read the survey’s scope and timing

ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey is based on a panel stratified by NAICS industries and their contributions to GDP. Its general methodology says surveys go to panelists early in the month, responses arrive through most of the month, and most respondents generally wait until late in the month to submit. The September release was issued by Susan Spence, MBA, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. ISM’s PMI methodology document describes the survey timing.

Five of the six largest manufacturing industries expanded in September: Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Chemical Products. That breadth is consistent with an expanding sector, but it does not erase the different signals in orders, production, inventories and prices.

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