The Social Security Administration says it will announce the next cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in October 2026. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has scheduled the September 2026 inflation report—the final data needed for the calculation—for October 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. That is the CPI release time, not a confirmed SSA announcement time. The 2027 COLA will be determined by how the third-quarter Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) compares with the third quarter of 2025; the final percentage cannot be calculated until September’s CPI-W is published.
What happens on October 14?
The BLS schedule lists Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern for release of September 2026 CPI data. That release should provide the last monthly CPI-W reading needed for the 2027 COLA calculation. The SSA says it will announce the next COLA in October, but its cited page does not confirm that it will announce the figure at the same time as the BLS release or specify an exact SSA announcement time. SSA COLA information and the BLS release schedule distinguish the two dates.
How the 2027 COLA is calculated
Social Security uses CPI-W, not the more commonly cited CPI-U. The formula compares the average CPI-W for July, August and September of the current year with the average for those same three months in the last year a COLA took effect. For the 2027 adjustment, that means comparing the third-quarter 2026 average with the third-quarter 2025 average. If the current average is higher, the percentage increase determines the COLA; if it is not higher, the formula produces no positive adjustment for that comparison. The SSA explains the COLA formula.
The SSA lists 317.265 as the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2025. It is the index comparison base for the 2027 calculation, not a dollar benefit amount or a forecast of the COLA.
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Why estimates are not final
Before September’s CPI-W reading is available, estimates can use only part of the third quarter’s data. A calculation based on July and August alone is incomplete: it does not include the full three-month average that the SSA formula requires. Forecasts from outside analysts can help indicate a possible range, but they are not the official adjustment.
What the figures currently tell us
The latest available figures provide context, but neither is the 2027 COLA. The SSA set the 2026 COLA at 2.8%, based on the CPI-W increase from the third quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2025. Separately, the BLS reported a 3.5% 12-month increase in CPI-W through August 2026. That inflation rate covers a different period and is not the COLA calculation, which requires the full third-quarter average comparison.
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| Figure | What it represents | Why it is not the 2027 COLA |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8% | SSA’s 2026 COLA, based on the Q3 2024-to-Q3 2025 CPI-W increase | It is the adjustment for 2026, not a forecast for 2027. SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet |
| 317.265 | SSA’s average CPI-W for Q3 2025 | It is the index average used as the comparison base, not a benefit amount or projected percentage. SSA COLA information |
| 3.5% | BLS-reported CPI-W 12-month increase through August 2026 | It is not the change between the required Q3 averages. BLS CPI release |
What the final announcement will establish
Once September CPI-W is released, the full Q3 2026 average can be compared with the Q3 2025 average and the COLA percentage determined. The final percentage and resulting benefit changes are not established by the figures available before that release. The SSA’s October announcement is the key agency confirmation for beneficiaries; the BLS schedule alone does not establish when SSA will publish its announcement.
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