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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteAnalysts expect S&P 500 earnings to keep growing in 2027, but at a slower pace: LSEG IBES consensus estimates reported by Reuters project 35% growth in 2026 and 15% in 2027. That is a 20-percentage-point slowdown in the growth rate—not a forecast that earnings will fall. Reuters said the 15% estimate is still above the 10% median annualized growth rate over the past 35 years cited by Barclays equity strategists.
What the 35% and 15% estimates mean
The figures are forecasts for annual S&P 500 earnings growth, not reported results. Reuters’ October 1, 2026 analysis attributed the 2027 consensus estimate to LSEG IBES and described the 35% expectation for 2026 as the highest growth rate since 2021. That comparison year was unusually strong in part because of the post-pandemic rebound.
| Forecast year | Expected earnings growth | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35% (LSEG IBES consensus, as reported by Reuters) | Forecast growth; Reuters called it the highest rate since 2021. |
| 2027 | 15% (LSEG IBES consensus, as reported by Reuters) | Forecast growth, not a decline in earnings; above the 10% historical median cited by Barclays strategists. |
The percentages compare growth rates, not the size of earnings in the two years. A slower rate means analysts expect earnings to increase less quickly from the prior-year base; it does not mean companies collectively earn 20% less. The cited 10% figure is a historical comparison reported by Reuters, not a guarantee of future growth or a prediction for any individual company.
Why analysts expect growth to slow
A stronger comparison year
When earnings rise sharply in one year, matching that rate the next year becomes harder because the next increase is measured against a higher base. Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital, told Reuters, as quoted by 24/7 Wall St.: “We’ve had great earnings. The bad thing is the comparisons are going to be very difficult next year.”
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Cooling growth in AI investment
Reuters identified slower growth in AI-related capital spending as another factor behind the forecast slowdown. This is an explanation reported by analysts, not proof that AI spending alone determines S&P 500 earnings. Investment plans can change, and companies across the index have different exposures to AI spending and its suppliers.
Questions about the earnings peak
Reuters reported that some investors are questioning whether earnings growth will peak in 2026, and cited that concern among Barclays strategists. Michael Arone of State Street Investment Management, quoted by 24/7 Wall St., put the uncertainty this way: “I do think that the rate of earnings growth will slow. I think the question will be: by how much?”
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Why an earnings slowdown does not settle what stocks will do
Earnings growth and stock-market returns are related, but they are not the same measure. Share prices also reflect the valuation investors are willing to pay for expected profits, interest rates, and expectations about future business conditions. Reuters reported that rising rates and concern about whether earnings growth is peaking were among investor concerns.
For context, Reuters reported on October 1, 2026 that the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio was 19.2, down from 22 at the start of 2026 and a peak of 23.5 in October 2025. Those are valuation snapshots, not earnings-growth figures, and a lower multiple does not by itself determine the index’s next move. The October 3, 2026 24/7 Wall St. article separately rounded the ratio to 19 from 22 at the start of the year; the two reports should be read as separate snapshots rather than blended into a single precise reading.
What investors should take from the forecast
- It is a consensus estimate, not a promise. Forecasts can be revised as company results and expectations change.
- “Collapse” describes a deceleration, not a contraction. The reported 2027 estimate is positive growth of 15%.
- The reasons are reported explanations, not quantified guarantees. Difficult comparisons and slower AI capital-spending growth may weigh on the rate, but the sources do not establish a specific effect for every company.
- Do not treat earnings growth as a stand-alone market signal. Valuations and interest rates also matter, and these forecasts alone cannot predict whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall.
Sources: Reuters analysis republished by LSE Financial News, October 1, 2026; 24/7 Wall St., October 3, 2026.
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