Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesBank of Ireland expects Irish HICP inflation to reach 4% in the final months of 2026, then average 3.2% in 2027. That is a forecast, not a report that inflation has already hit 4%. The bank attributes the expected rise to higher oil and gas prices, which could squeeze household spending power.
What Bank of Ireland is forecasting
In its September 2026 Ireland Outlook, Bank of Ireland forecasts headline HICP inflation rising to 4% in the last months of 2026. It expects inflation to average 3.2% over 2027. A late-year peak and a following year’s average describe different periods, so the two figures are not directly comparable.
The Irish Examiner separately quotes Bank of Ireland group chief economist Conall Mac Coille as saying CPI inflation could peak close to 4% “at the turn of the year.” The quote uses CPI, while the bank’s official outlook summary uses HICP; these are distinct inflation measures and should not be treated as interchangeable. The statement is also a projection, not confirmation of an observed 4% reading. The Examiner’s report reproduces his explanation: “Given the surge in oil and gas prices we expect CPI inflation to peak close to 4% at the turn of the year, another unwelcome squeeze on households’ spending power – which will be challenging – especially for those on low incomes,”
Why the forecast matters to household budgets
The stated driver is the surge in oil and gas prices. If those pressures persist, higher energy costs can feed into household expenses and leave less spending power for other needs. Mac Coille particularly highlighted the difficulty for people on low incomes, who may have less room in their budgets to absorb rising costs.
#1 Best Overall
The outlook is exposed to how high energy prices rise and how long they remain elevated. The Central Bank of Ireland’s Q1 2026 bulletin also identified higher energy prices as an inflation risk, but it was published earlier and used different assumptions; it is context, not a revision of Bank of Ireland’s September forecast.
How the inflation forecast fits the wider outlook
Bank of Ireland’s inflation projection sits alongside a mixed forecast for economic activity. The bank projects a GDP contraction in 2026 followed by growth in 2027, while forecasting continued growth in modified domestic demand, a measure of domestic economic activity.
Rank #2
- Ideal for Gifting
- Ideal for a bookworm
- Compact for travelling
| Measure | 2026 forecast | 2027 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| GDP | -1.2% | +3.1% |
| Modified domestic demand | +3.8% | +2.8% |
| HICP inflation | 4% in the final months of the year | 3.2% average |
All figures in the table are Bank of Ireland forecasts from its September 2026 outlook, not recorded outcomes. The outlook also forecasts 2027 consumer spending growth of 1.8%, pay growth of 3.5%, and job creation of 2%. It factors in planned Budget 2027 tax cuts of €1.5 billion; these are assumptions within the outlook, not a guarantee of the final budget measures.
What the Central Bank’s earlier scenarios do—and do not—show
The Central Bank of Ireland’s Q1 2026 bulletin gives a useful example of how energy assumptions can change projections. Its baseline HICP forecasts were 2.9% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027. Under a severe energy-price scenario, it projected 4.2% and 3.8%, respectively. These are conditional scenarios from an earlier forecast vintage, not competing estimates made on the same assumptions as Bank of Ireland’s September outlook. The Central Bank bulletin therefore illustrates the sensitivity of inflation forecasts to energy prices rather than establishing what inflation will be.
PC Slower Than It Used to Be?
A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11Outdated Drivers Are Slowing You Down
One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchWhat the outlook says about housing
Bank of Ireland’s September outlook also forecasts house-price inflation of 4% through 2026 and 3.5% in 2027. It projects housing completions of 39,600 in 2026 and 42,000 in 2027. These are forecasts for house prices and completions, not observed results, and are separate from the HICP inflation projection.
Quick Recap
Best Value
- It can be a gift option
- Comes with secure packaging
- Helpful in various ways
Rank #4
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
